FREE 1/31 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 6-game NBA slate offers a mix of intriguing opportunities and potential pitfalls. The schedule kicks off at 7:00 PM ET and wraps up quickly with the last game tipping off at 8:00 PM ET, so there’s not much room for late swap strategy. The standout matchups for DFS purposes are Milwaukee at San Antonio (236.0 total) and Denver at Philadelphia (234.0 total), both featuring high implied totals and star-studded lineups that could lead to some big fantasy performances. Targeting these games strategically will be key as they’re likely to draw plenty of attention from the field.

The rest of the slate features slower-paced, lower-total games that might not jump off the page but could still hold value if you dig deeper into usage trends and pricing inefficiencies. Balancing exposure between the chalkier high-total matchups and under-the-radar plays will be critical in separating yourself from the pack tonight. With that in mind… Our January 31 Starting Five is now LIVE!

Game Environment Analysis

DAL @ DET (O/U: 229.0, Spread: 1.0)

• Pace: DAL (13th) vs DET (14th)
• Off Eff: DAL (6th) vs DET (19th)
• Def Eff: DAL (11th) vs DET (14th)

LAC @ CHA (O/U: 208.5, Spread: 13.0)

• Pace: LAC (20th) vs CHA (21st)
• Off Eff: LAC (20th) vs CHA (28th)
• Def Eff: LAC (3rd) vs CHA (13th)

DEN @ PHI (O/U: 234.0, Spread: 9.5)

• Pace: DEN (5th) vs PHI (28th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: DEN (4th) 🔥 vs PHI (21st)
• Def Eff: DEN (18th) vs PHI (21st)

CHI @ TOR (O/U: 232.0, Spread: -3.5)

• Pace: CHI (3rd) vs TOR (7th)
• Off Eff: CHI (15th) vs TOR (24th)
• Def Eff: CHI (23rd) vs TOR (24th)

BOS @ NOP (O/U: 233.0, Spread: 11.0)

• Pace: BOS (25th) vs NOP (12th)
• Off Eff: BOS (3rd) 🔥 vs NOP (25th)
• Def Eff: BOS (5th) vs NOP (28th) 🎯

MIL @ SAS (O/U: 236.0, Spread: 1.5)

• Pace: MIL (11th) vs SAS (17th)
• Off Eff: MIL (11th) vs SAS (16th)
• Def Eff: MIL (8th) vs SAS (19th)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Tyrese Maxey ($9,700)

Tyrese Maxey ($9,700) is one of the top plays on tonight’s slate, and for good reason. With Joel Embiid and Paul George sidelined, Maxey has taken over as the clear focal point of Philadelphia’s offense, averaging 31.8 points, 6.9 assists, and 1.4 steals over his last 10 games. His ability to maintain elite usage while logging heavy minutes (projected for 38 tonight) makes him a strong option even at this elevated salary. Facing Denver isn’t ideal on paper, but it’s worth noting the Nuggets rank middle of the pack defensively against point guards this season. Add in Maxey’s consistent fantasy production—53+ DK points in three of his last four games—and his 1.4 FPPM rate becomes tough to overlook in any format.

Ownership is high at 27%, but chalk feels justified here given his ceiling and role in the offense. He appears in over 22% of optimal lineups with a solid boom percentage (33.5%), meaning he has a strong chance to outperform his price tag despite being highly rostered. If you’re looking for leverage elsewhere, that’s fine, but fading Maxey entirely is risky given his combination of volume, efficiency, and matchup-based opportunity tonight against Denver. He should be a cornerstone for both cash lineups and GPP builds where you’re willing to eat some chalk for upside.

More PG Plays:

• Coby White ($5,900)
• Damian Lillard ($9,000)
• Cade Cunningham ($10,100)

SG - Coby White ($5,900)

Coby White comes in at $5,900 tonight in a road matchup against Toronto, and while his 34.6% ownership will make him one of the chalkiest plays on the slate, it’s hard to argue against his appeal. He’s projected for 32.56 DK points with a strong 5.52x value and appears in 20.4% of optimal lineups, which speaks to his efficiency at this price point. White has been solid since stepping into an expanded role, averaging over 30 minutes per game and producing 1.02 FPPM this season. With Zach LaVine still unavailable, he’ll likely shoulder more offensive responsibility, which boosts both his floor and ceiling in a matchup where Toronto’s guards rank middle-of-the-pack defensively.

The high ownership is worth noting, but this feels like good chalk rather than something to fade outright. White’s Boom% sits at a respectable 26%, meaning he has a real shot at exceeding value in GPPs if his usage trends up again tonight. While Toronto isn’t an ideal pace-up spot, White’s ability to contribute across multiple categories—especially as a scorer and facilitator—keeps him viable even in less-than-ideal game environments. At $5,900, there’s enough upside here to justify the heavy ownership if you’re looking for a mid-range play with consistent opportunity and solid metrics to back it up.

More SG Plays:

• Kelly Oubre Jr. ($6,300)
• Jaylen Brown ($7,800)
• Jamal Murray ($7,500)

SF - Jayson Tatum ($9,500)

Jayson Tatum comes in at $9,500 tonight, and while his recent performances have been slightly underwhelming for his salary, the matchup against the Pelicans offers a great opportunity to bounce back. New Orleans ranks middle of the pack defensively, but they’ve struggled to contain versatile forwards like Tatum. His 1.36 FPPM and projected 35 minutes give him a solid floor, and with a Boom% of 21.4%, he carries strong tournament upside. At 5x value potential and a projection of 47.53 DK points, he’s priced fairly for his role as Boston’s primary offensive weapon.

Ownership is expected to hover around 12.9%, which is moderate but not high enough to shy away from in GPPs. With a Tournament Rank of #1 and appearing in 18.4% of optimal lineups, Tatum profiles as one of the slate’s best plays at this price point. While he hasn’t hit his ceiling recently, his ability to contribute across all categories keeps him relevant in any game environment. If you’re looking for an anchor in your lineup who can differentiate without being overly contrarian, Tatum checks all the boxes tonight.

More SF Plays:

• Jaylen Brown ($7,800)
• Scottie Barnes ($9,400)
• RJ Barrett ($7,300)

PF - Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,500)

Giannis Antetokounmpo comes in as one of the top plays on tonight’s slate, and it’s easy to see why. At $11,500, his 1.79 FPPM and projected 36 minutes make him a dominant force against a Spurs team that has struggled defensively all season. San Antonio ranks near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency and has no real answer for Giannis’ combination of size and athleticism in the paint. With a projection of 64.4 DK points and a strong 5.6x value rating, he has both the ceiling and floor you want when spending up for a stud. His recent performances back this up—averaging 32.8 points, 13.2 rebounds, and nearly five assists over his last ten games while shooting an efficient 63% from the field.

The high ownership (34.5%) is worth noting, but this chalk feels justified given his consistency and upside in this matchup. He appears in over 26% of optimal lineups with a nearly 40% boom percentage, making him tough to fade even in tournaments despite the popularity. Pairing him with lower-owned mid-range or value plays can help differentiate your lineup while still taking advantage of his production potential. In a pace-up spot against a defensively weak Spurs team, Giannis is primed to deliver another elite DFS performance tonight.

More PF Plays:

• Miles Bridges ($8,500)
• Aaron Gordon ($4,400)
• PJ Washington ($7,300)

C - Moussa Diabate ($4,200)

Moussa Diabate comes in as one of the top value plays on tonight’s slate at just $4,200. Projected for 27.2 DK points and logging nearly a fantasy point per minute (0.97 FPPM), he offers strong upside with a 6.5x value projection. His recent performances show why—he put up 33.3 DK points against the Pelicans in 29 minutes and followed that with 26 DK points in 27 minutes against Brooklyn, demonstrating his ability to deliver when given extended run. With Nick Richards no longer in Charlotte, Diabate has carved out a larger role, and his rebounding prowess (13 boards vs. NOP) solidifies his floor in favorable matchups like this one.

The main concern here is his sky-high ownership at 39.3%, which makes him one of the chalkiest plays on the slate. While the value is undeniable, you need to weigh whether you’re comfortable eating that chalk or looking for leverage elsewhere in tournaments. His optimal lineup percentage (13.4%) suggests he’s a solid piece but not necessarily essential if you’re looking to differentiate your builds in GPPs. Still, with a Boom% of 32.8%, Diabate has clear upside for his price and remains a strong play for cash games or lineups where you’re prioritizing value over uniqueness.

More C Plays:

• Nikola Jokic ($12,000)
• Jakob Poeltl ($6,600)
• Kristaps Porzingis ($7,000)

Good luck today! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!