FREE 03/11 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 4-game slate may be small, but it brings some intriguing DFS opportunities. The action tips off at 7:00 PM ET, with two games carrying the highest totals on the board: MIL at IND (236.5) and WAS at DET (236.0). Both matchups feature fast-paced teams and suspect defenses, making them prime targets for stacking. These games will likely draw plenty of attention from the field, so finding the right pieces to differentiate your lineup could be key.

With all games starting within an hour of each other, there’s limited late swap potential, which simplifies lineup construction but also puts more pressure on getting it right from the start. Prioritize players in those high-total matchups, but don’t overlook potential value in slower-paced games if pricing or roles make sense. It’s a condensed slate, so nailing your core plays will be critical—time to lock in and make it count!

Game Environment Analysis

BKN @ CLE (O/U: 227.0, Spread: -16.5)

• Pace: BKN (30th) vs CLE (6th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: BKN (27th) vs CLE (1st) 🔥
• Def Eff: BKN (19th) vs CLE (6th)
  ⚠️ Blowout risk

WAS @ DET (O/U: 236.0, Spread: -14.5)

• Pace: WAS (4th) vs DET (7th)
• Off Eff: WAS (30th) vs DET (16th)
• Def Eff: WAS (28th) 🎯 vs DET (10th)

MIL @ IND (O/U: 236.5, Spread: 2.5)

• Pace: MIL (10th) vs IND (8th)
• Off Eff: MIL (13th) vs IND (9th)
• Def Eff: MIL (11th) vs IND (14th)

LAC @ NOP (O/U: 222.0, Spread: 7.0)

• Pace: LAC (20th) vs NOP (12th)
• Off Eff: LAC (20th) vs NOP (24th)
• Def Eff: LAC (5th) vs NOP (29th) 🎯

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - James Harden ($9,900)

James Harden ($9,900) is one of the top tournament plays on tonight’s slate, and for good reason. He’s projected for 52.9 DK points with an elite 1.43 FPPM rate and a strong value of 5.34x. Harden’s consistent minutes—he’s logged at least 36 in each of his last five games—combined with his usage in the Clippers’ offense make him a reliable high-ceiling option. The matchup against the Pelicans isn’t overly concerning either, as they rank middle of the pack defensively against point guards. With a Boom% of 30.6% and appearing in 31.5% of optimal lineups, Harden has both a safe floor and significant upside in this spot.

His ownership is expected to be around 20.9%, which is relatively high but not overwhelming for someone with his ceiling and consistency. While he won’t be a contrarian play, the chalk feels justified given his recent production, including three games over 57 DK points in his last five outings. If you’re looking to pay up at guard, Harden checks all the boxes: heavy minutes, strong peripherals (he’s always flirting with triple-doubles), and involvement in every facet of the Clippers’ offense. Don’t overthink this one—he’s worth prioritizing in both cash games and tournaments despite moderate ownership levels.

More PG Plays:

• Cade Cunningham ($10,200)
• Darius Garland ($7,100)
• Tyrese Haliburton ($8,800)

SG - Malik Beasley ($5,400)

Malik Beasley is shaping up to be a strong mid-range option at $5,400 in tonight’s DFS slate. His 1.05 FPPM combined with a projected 26 minutes puts him at an efficient 5.1x value, and his role as a volume shooter off the bench has kept his production steady. Beasley’s matchup against Washington is particularly appealing, as their defensive struggles on the perimeter create opportunities for his three-point-heavy game. With a projection of 27.4 DK points and a solid 15.7% Boom rate, he offers both a high floor and reasonable upside for tournaments.

However, at 25.2% projected ownership, Beasley is one of the chalkier plays on the slate. While that level of popularity limits his leverage appeal in GPPs, it’s not entirely unwarranted given his price point and matchup in what could be a fast-paced game environment against Washington. He also appears in nearly 24% of optimal lineups, signaling strong lineup-building utility despite the crowding. If you’re playing cash games or smaller-field contests, Beasley’s consistency makes him a reliable option to lock in value while leaving salary for higher-upside studs elsewhere. For large-field GPPs, you’ll need to decide if his ceiling justifies eating the chalk or if pivoting to lower-owned options offers more upside.

More SG Plays:

• Donovan Mitchell ($8,500)
• Trey Murphy III ($7,700)
• Dennis Schroder ($4,400)

SF - Kawhi Leonard ($8,100)

Kawhi Leonard checks a lot of boxes tonight at $8,100, making him one of the most appealing plays on the slate. His 1.24 FPPM production combined with a projected 35 minutes gives him a rock-solid floor, and his 43.5 DK point projection translates to strong value at 5.4x. The matchup against the Pelicans is neutral on paper, but Leonard’s ability to contribute across multiple categories—points, rebounds, assists, and steals—keeps him viable regardless of game script. With a Boom% of 26.1% and appearing in over 31% of optimal lineups, he’s not just safe but also offers tournament-winning upside if he hits his ceiling.

The elephant in the room is Leonard’s massive projected ownership at 50%, which will make him highly chalky in tournaments. However, this doesn’t feel like bad chalk given his consistency (four straight games over 34 DK points) and the lack of comparable options in his price range with similar minutes and usage guarantees. If you’re looking for leverage in GPPs, fading Kawhi could work if you believe this game stays slower-paced or someone like Paul George dominates usage. Still, given his recent form and ability to rack up stats in every category, it’s hard to argue against locking him into your core builds tonight.

More SF Plays:

• Cam Thomas ($6,200)
• Kyle Kuzma ($6,200)
• Trey Murphy III ($7,700)

PF - Karlo Matkovic ($3,700)

Karlo Matkovic ($3,700) stands out as one of the best value plays on the slate, projected for 22.45 DK points and a strong 6.07x value. He’s coming off a stretch of consistent production, including a 34.3-point DK performance in his most recent game against Memphis, where he logged 26 minutes and posted a double-double with 13 points and 11 rebounds. While he’s still coming off the bench, Matkovic has been carving out a larger role in New Orleans’ rotation, averaging around 23 minutes over his last five games. Against the Clippers tonight, who rank middle-of-the-pack defensively against bigs, his efficient per-minute production (0.83 FPPM) makes him an appealing option at this price point.

The main concern here is ownership, as Matkovic is expected to be rostered by 36.4% of the field. While that level of chalk can be risky in tournaments, his optimal lineup rate (30.76%) suggests it’s largely justified due to his salary relief and solid floor for cash games or small-field contests. For GPPs, fading him could make sense if you’re targeting leverage elsewhere, but there’s still room for upside given his Boom% of 24.46%. At $3,700 with steady playing time and favorable metrics across the board, Matkovic is hard to ignore as one of tonight’s top value plays despite the heavy ownership tag.

More PF Plays:

• Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,400)
• Pascal Siakam ($8,200)
• Evan Mobley ($8,300)

C - Jalen Duren ($6,600)

Jalen Duren is shaping up as one of the top plays on tonight’s slate at $6,600. Facing the Wizards, a team that struggles to defend bigs, Duren’s 1.37 FPPM production and projected 38.5 DK points give him elite value with a 5.8x multiplier. His recent performances have been strong, including three double-doubles in his last five games, and he’s shown upside with games of 46+ DK points twice in that span. Washington’s defensive inefficiencies in the paint make this an ideal spot for Duren to rack up rebounds and easy buckets, especially given his consistent minutes in the high-20s to low-30s.

The chalk ownership (28.6%) is certainly high but feels warranted given his combination of price, matchup, and ceiling. He ranks first in tournament projections with a 33.3% Boom rate and appears in over 31% of optimal lineups, signaling both safety and upside for GPPs. While high ownership can sometimes be concerning, fading Duren here seems risky unless you have a strong pivot option at center. He offers too much value to ignore and fits well into lineups as a core play who can anchor your builds without breaking the bank.

More C Plays:

• Ivica Zubac ($8,000)
• Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,400)
• Evan Mobley ($8,300)

Good luck tonight! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!