FREE 04/15 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s two-game slate might be small, but it has some interesting spots to break down. The first game tips off at 7:30 PM ET with the Hawks facing the Magic in a matchup featuring a 219.0 total. While that total isn’t massive, Atlanta’s pace and offensive firepower always make them worth considering. The second game of the night, Memphis at Golden State (10:00 PM ET), carries the highest total on the slate at 228.0, giving it clear appeal from a DFS perspective, especially with both teams capable of pushing the tempo.

With only two games, ownership will condense quickly, so finding ways to differentiate your lineups is key. Targeting high-usage players in the GSW-MEM game makes sense given its strong game environment, but don’t overlook potential value in ATL-ORL if you can identify players who could outperform expectations. It’s a short slate, so every edge matters—get creative and take some calculated risks.

Game Environment Analysis

ATL @ ORL (O/U: 219.0, Spread: -5.5)

• Pace: ATL (3rd) vs ORL (29th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: ATL (18th) vs ORL (27th)
• Def Eff: ATL (19th) vs ORL (2nd)

MEM @ GSW (O/U: 228.0, Spread: -7.0)

• Pace: MEM (1st) vs GSW (17th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: MEM (6th) vs GSW (16th)
• Def Eff: MEM (9th) vs GSW (7th)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Stephen Curry ($9,300)

Stephen Curry ($9,300) is shaping up as one of the most appealing plays on tonight’s slate, and for good reason. Facing the Memphis Grizzlies in a Play-In matchup, Curry projects for 49.5 DraftKings points across 37 minutes, translating to an elite 5.33x value at his salary. His 1.34 FPPM production is reliable, and he’s been scorching in April with a 29.1 PPG average while shooting lights out from deep (5.1 threes per game). Memphis has been solid defensively this season, but their backcourt isn’t equipped to handle Curry’s constant movement and elite shot-making ability—especially in a high-stakes environment where Golden State will lean heavily on their star.

At 45.3% projected ownership, Curry comes in as chalk, but it feels justified given his strong projection and the fact that he appears in over 40% of optimal lineups. While the ownership is notable, it’s not prohibitive considering his ceiling and consistency in competitive matchups like this one. With Golden State playing at a fast pace and Curry locked into heavy minutes, he’s positioned as a foundational piece for both cash games and GPPs despite the field being on him. If you’re fading him in tournaments, ensure you’re finding leverage elsewhere because leaving out a player with this level of floor-ceiling combo could be costly tonight.

More PG Plays:

• Brandin Podziemski ($6,000)
• Ja Morant ($8,900)

SG - Brandin Podziemski ($6,000)

Brandin Podziemski ($6,000) stands out as one of the best value plays on the slate, and for good reason. Projected for 33.7 DraftKings points in a favorable matchup against Memphis, he offers a strong 5.62x value with the ability to exceed expectations (26.65% Boom Rate). The Grizzlies have struggled defensively this season, and with Podziemski locked into heavy minutes—he’s projected for 35 tonight—he’s in an excellent spot to deliver across all categories. Over his last five games, he’s shown versatility with averages of 15.4 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 3.8 assists while shooting efficiently from deep (52.5% over his last nine). At nearly one fantasy point per minute (0.96 FPPM), his floor feels stable with upside if this game stays competitive.

Ownership is a key factor here, as Podziemski is expected to be rostered at 36.4%, which is moderately high but justified given his role and price point. He appears in an impressive 40.68% of optimal lineups, signaling that chalk or not, he’s one of the slate’s top plays in both cash games and tournaments. While some may hesitate due to his popularity, fading him could be risky considering his combination of volume and efficiency in a game where Golden State will rely on him heavily to generate offense. If you’re looking for solid mid-range value without overthinking it, Podziemski is your guy tonight.

More SG Plays:

• Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($3,800)
• Desmond Bane ($7,800)

SF - Jimmy Butler ($8,000)

Jimmy Butler is in a strong spot tonight at $8,000, and the numbers back it up. Projected for 44.7 DK points with a 5.6x value, he’s one of the best plays on the slate. Memphis has struggled defensively this season, particularly against versatile forwards like Butler, who can rack up points in multiple ways. With a 1.18 FPPM rate and a projected 38 minutes of court time, Butler’s floor is solid, and his ceiling is enticing given his 31.4% Boom Rate and a slate-leading Tournament Rank of 1. The Grizzlies’ defense doesn’t present much resistance here, making him an appealing option in both cash games and tournaments.

The ownership is worth discussing at 37.6%, which is higher than the field average but justified given his strong metrics across the board. He appears in over half (50.8%) of optimal lineups, further underscoring his importance on this slate. While he’ll be popular, fading him could come with significant risk unless you’re confident in pivoting to similarly high-upside options at forward. Butler has been heating up lately with consistent production in scoring and assists while also contributing defensively—exactly what you want for DFS upside. In this matchup against Memphis, he’s chalk worth eating in most builds tonight.

More SF Plays:

• Franz Wagner ($8,500)
• Caris LeVert ($4,800)

PF - Paolo Banchero ($9,500)

Paolo Banchero is shaping up as one of the top plays on tonight’s slate at $9,500. The matchup against Atlanta is appealing, as the Hawks rank in the bottom half of the league in defensive efficiency and play at a faster pace, creating more opportunities for fantasy production. Banchero has been a consistent force when given minutes, averaging 1.34 DK points per minute and projected for 38 minutes tonight. With a projection of 50.82 DK points and a solid value of 5.35x, he fits both cash games and tournaments. In his last game against Atlanta, he dropped 54.5 DK points in 37 minutes, showcasing his ability to dominate this matchup.

The ownership is high at 64.5%, but it’s hard to argue against it given his optimal lineup rate of 51.5%. He’s projected to be one of the most impactful players on the slate with a Boom% of 27.3%, meaning he has a strong chance to exceed expectations despite his hefty salary. While you’ll need to differentiate elsewhere in tournaments if you roster him, fading him entirely could be risky given his combination of usage, matchup, and ceiling potential. If you’re looking for safety with upside in your lineups tonight, Banchero checks all the boxes.

More PF Plays:

• Draymond Green ($6,300)
• Jaren Jackson Jr. ($7,300)

C - Zach Edey ($5,700)

Zach Edey ($5,700) stands out as one of the best value plays on the slate, and his high ownership (59.7%) reflects that. Projected for 32.8 DK points at a strong 5.8x value, Edey is in an excellent spot against Golden State. The Warriors struggle to defend bigs, ranking near the bottom of the league in rebound rate, and Edey’s recent production has been elite on the glass. Over his last five games, he’s averaged 15.4 rebounds per contest while also contributing defensively with blocks and steals. With a solid 1.13 FPPM rate and projected for nearly 29 minutes in a must-win Play-In game, he has a clear path to exceeding his salary-based expectations.

The biggest question here is whether Edey’s high ownership makes him worth eating the chalk in tournaments. Given his combination of floor and ceiling—evidenced by a Boom% of 27.3% and an Optimal% of 40.8%—it feels justified in this case. He also ranks second overall in tournament value on this slate, which reinforces his upside even with heavy exposure across the field. While fading him might seem tempting for leverage purposes, it’s risky given how central he is to Memphis’ interior game plan and how exploitable this matchup is for someone with his skill set. If you’re looking for stability with upside tonight, Edey should be firmly in your player pool despite the ownership concerns.

More C Plays:

• Draymond Green ($6,300)
• Wendell Carter Jr. ($5,400)

Good luck today! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!