FREE 02/15 UFC Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

The UFC Vegas 102 card features 24 fighters with an average salary of $8,100, making roster construction all about finding the right balance between chalky plays and sneaky value. With 14 fighters projected for 20%+ ownership, the slate has several high-profile names drawing attention, but identifying under-the-radar value will be key to building a unique lineup. Two fighters stand out as strong value options, each with the potential to exceed 8x their salary and score over 80 fantasy points, which could be critical in tournaments. Additionally, veterans like Jared Cannonier and Calvin Kattar are in pivotal fights where experience meets decline—factors worth considering when weighing ownership and upside.

Pricing trends suggest some tough decisions at the top end, particularly with fighters like Zalal and Vieira priced steeply despite some question marks around their paths to victory. Meanwhile, mid-range options like Gregory Rodrigues offer strong grappling volume and finishing upside that could separate them from the pack. On a slate with few clear underdog winners but plenty of takedown-heavy matchups, targeting fighters who can rack up control time or land significant strikes consistently will be crucial for DFS success. Let’s break down our top plays for this slate.

Premium Tier ($9,000-$10,000)

Top Play: Jose Delgado (-425) ($9,000)

Jose Delgado ($9,000) stands out as one of the top plays on this slate, and his -425 betting odds reflect his heavy favorite status in his UFC debut. Delgado’s ability to mix striking with wrestling gives him multiple paths to scoring, which is crucial for DFS. In his Contender Series win, he not only showcased knockout power with a brutal knee finish but also landed three takedowns in the first round, hinting at strong grappling upside. His projection of 81.97 DK points, combined with a tournament-leading 45.7% optimal lineup rate, highlights both his floor and ceiling potential. Facing Connor Matthews, who struggled against pressure and lost his own UFC debut earlier this year, Delgado appears primed for success in this matchup.

The biggest concern here is ownership—Delgado is projected at 48.5%, making him one of the chalkiest fighters on the card. However, given his well-rounded skill set and favorable matchup, this chalk feels justified in most formats. At $9,000, he offers a solid value (9.11x) compared to other high-priced fighters and has clear finishing potential against an opponent who hasn’t proven UFC-level durability or defense under pressure. While fading Delgado could create leverage in large tournaments due to the ownership, it’s a risky move given how likely he is to deliver on both volume and finishing upside.

Other Premium Options

• Rafael Estevam ($9,300, Proj: 78.3, Own: 32.8%, Odds: -450)
• Edmen Shahbazyan ($9,200, Proj: 78.5, Own: 35.8%, Odds: -360)
• Youssef Zalal ($9,400, Proj: 71.6, Own: 21.9%, Odds: -525)

Mid-Range Tier ($8,000-$8,999)

Top Play: Gregory Rodrigues (-230) ($8,600)

Gregory Rodrigues ($8,600) stands out as one of the strongest plays on this slate, and his metrics back it up. With a projection of 81.56 DraftKings points, a value of 9.48x, and an Optimal Lineup Percentage of 45.2%, he offers both a high floor and ceiling for DFS purposes. His recent performances highlight his well-rounded skill set—he dominated Christian Leroy Duncan with over eight minutes of control time while also landing damaging strikes that forced Duncan to adjust his game plan. Rodrigues’ ability to mix powerful striking with effective grappling gives him multiple scoring paths, which is critical in both cash games and tournaments. The -230 betting odds further support him as a strong favorite to win.

The main concern here is ownership, as Rodrigues is projected to be highly rostered at 61%. While chalk can often be risky in tournaments, this level of ownership feels justified given his consistent scoring potential and favorable pricing relative to his upside. His Tournament Rank (2nd) reflects his ability to deliver in GPPs despite the high ownership, making him viable even in crowded builds. That said, pivoting away from Rodrigues in larger-field contests could make sense if you’re aiming for lower-owned leverage plays elsewhere. For cash games, though, he’s hard to avoid given his combination of safety and upside at $8,600.

Other Mid-Range Options

• Ismael Bonfim ($8,400, Proj: 68.0, Own: 36.4%, Odds: -220)
• Valter Walker ($8,700, Proj: 70.4, Own: 33.5%, Odds: -240)
• Ketlen Souza ($8,000, Proj: 53.8, Own: 25.3%, Odds: -110)

Value Tier ($7,500-$7,999)

Top Play: Nazim Sadykhov (+185) ($7,800)

Nazim Sadykhov ($7,800) offers intriguing value in DFS contests this week, particularly for tournaments. His salary provides flexibility, and with a solid 5.81x value projection and a 20.7% optimal lineup rate, he has the potential to outperform his price tag. While his +185 betting odds suggest he’s an underdog, Sadykhov’s well-rounded skill set and durability make him a live option in what could be a competitive fight. His ability to mix striking and grappling gives him multiple scoring paths, though his lack of recent activity introduces some risk. Still, at 17.3% projected ownership—slightly below the field average—he offers decent leverage if you’re looking for mid-tier options with upside.

From an ownership perspective, Sadykhov’s moderate popularity aligns well with his tournament appeal. He’s not chalky enough to be a liability in GPPs but still projects as relevant in optimal lineups. His matchup against Ismael Bonfim is challenging, but Bonfim’s aggressive style could create openings for counters or scrambles where Sadykhov thrives. With limited finishing upside compared to pricier fighters, he may not have the ceiling to anchor lineups but works as a secondary play for balanced roster construction or as part of contrarian builds aiming to exploit his relatively low ownership.

Other Value Options

• Don’Tale Mayes ($7,500, Proj: 38.4, Own: 12.1%)

Bargain Tier (Under $7,500)

Top Play: Vince Morales (+135) ($7,100)

At just $7,100, Vince Morales presents intriguing value with a 6.36x projection and a 40.5% optimal lineup rate, both of which suggest he’s a viable salary-saving option in tournaments. His projected 45.1 DraftKings points may not scream upside, but his low price allows for flexibility in constructing lineups around higher-priced fighters. Morales’ ability to mix in takedowns (as shown in his last fight against Taylor Lapilus) provides some path to scoring, though his striking volume and efficiency remain concerns. Facing UFC debutant Elijah Smith, Morales has a chance to capitalize on his opponent’s inexperience, especially if he can keep the fight standing or utilize his grappling effectively.

At 34% projected ownership, Morales is slightly above the field average but not prohibitively chalky for someone with this level of value and optimal percentage. While his recent performances have been underwhelming—highlighted by a lopsided loss in his return to the UFC—the matchup against Smith is far less daunting than his prior competition. Given the +135 betting odds, there’s clear risk here, but Morales’ price tag and potential paths to points make him an appealing option for tournament builds needing salary relief. Just temper expectations for a ceiling performance given his limited finishing upside.

Other Bargain Options

• Khaos Williams ($7,300, Proj: 45.1, Own: 30.2%, Odds: +181)
• Andre Petroski ($7,400, Proj: 40.1, Own: 14.1%, Odds: +225)
• Dylan Budka ($7,000, Proj: 32.7, Own: 13.3%, Odds: +295)

Good luck! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Fighter Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!