FREE 02/08 UFC Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

The UFC 312 slate is packed with action, featuring 24 fighters and plenty of intrigue for DFS players. With an average salary of $8,100 and 14 fighters projected for 20%+ ownership, roster construction will require a mix of chalk plays and under-the-radar picks to differentiate your lineups. Two strong value options stand out as potential game-changers, each offering 8x+ value and projecting for over 80 points—key targets if you’re looking to save salary while maintaining upside. The main event rematch between Dricus du Plessis and Sean Strickland should draw plenty of attention, as both fighters are likely to score well in a five-round fight regardless of the outcome. Similarly, Tatiana Suarez’s grappling-heavy style makes her a high-floor option against Weili Zhang in what projects to be a close battle.

Ownership trends suggest that chalky fighters will dominate builds, but there are opportunities to pivot—especially in volatile matchups like Tafa vs. Teixeira or Crute vs. Bellato, where early finishes could create massive scoring swings. Targeting fights with high finishing potential is critical given the scoring system’s preference for knockouts and control time. Keep an eye on pricing inefficiencies as well; mid-range fighters like Matthews or Prado could offer sneaky upside if their fights go the distance with volume striking or grappling exchanges. With so many ways to approach this card, finding the right balance between popular picks and contrarian plays will be key to gaining leverage in tournaments. Let’s break down our top plays for this slate.

Premium Tier ($9,000-$10,000)

Top Play: Aleksandre Topuria (-400) ($9,300)

Aleksandre Topuria ($9,300) makes for an intriguing DFS play in his UFC debut, particularly given his finishing-heavy track record. With a 5-1 professional record and all five wins coming via stoppage, Topuria has demonstrated an ability to end fights quickly, which is ideal for DraftKings scoring. His -400 betting line underscores his status as a heavy favorite, and while his projected 80.2 points may seem modest for his salary, the matchup against fellow debutant Colby Thicknesse presents plenty of upside. Thicknesse is stepping in on short notice, which could leave him vulnerable to Topuria’s aggressive style and early pressure. The high ownership (42.3%) reflects the field’s confidence in Topuria’s win probability and finishing potential.

The chalk here appears warranted given Topuria’s path to victory and scoring ceiling, though it’s worth noting he ranks only 14th in tournament value at 8.62x. This suggests he may need an early finish to justify his price tag in large-field GPPs. However, with a solid Optimal Lineup rate of 27.7%, there’s still enough upside to consider him in tournaments if you’re comfortable eating some chalk. For cash games, his floor feels relatively safe given the favorable matchup and betting odds, but there are other fighters at similar price points who offer more reliable projections if you’re looking for alternatives with lower ownership risk.

Other Premium Options

• Quillan Salkilld ($9,600, Proj: 77.3, Own: 28.1%, Odds: -650)
• Kody Steele ($9,100, Proj: 75.4, Own: 19.4%, Odds: -220)
• Kevin Jousset ($9,000, Proj: 75.2, Own: 24.9%, Odds: -260)

Mid-Range Tier ($8,000-$8,999)

Top Play: Dricus Du Plessis (-210) ($8,600)

Dricus Du Plessis ($8,600) stands out as one of the strongest DFS plays on this card, and his high ownership (52.7%) reflects that. His unique fighting style—combining powerful striking with an underrated grappling game—gives him multiple paths to score points. In his most recent title defense against Israel Adesanya, Du Plessis showcased his ability to land damaging strikes while mixing in timely takedowns, ultimately securing a fourth-round submission. With six stoppage victories in eight UFC fights, his ceiling is undeniable, especially when factoring in the -210 betting odds that favor him to win. At a projected 86.5 DraftKings points and a value of 10.05x, he’s well-positioned to deliver both floor and upside.

While the 52.7% projected ownership makes him chalky, it’s justified given his scoring potential and tournament-leading optimal lineup percentage (38.3%). Du Plessis has proven he can thrive even in chaotic fights where he appears gassed, making him a reliable option for cash games and an elite play for tournaments despite the heavy ownership. If you’re looking for leverage elsewhere, fading DDP carries significant risk given his strong win conditions and ability to rack up points through both striking and grappling exchanges. He may be popular, but this is chalk worth eating in most lineups.

Other Mid-Range Options

• Tatiana Suarez ($8,200, Proj: 78.6, Own: 45.0%, Odds: -115)
• Tallison Teixeira ($8,400, Proj: 76.9, Own: 38.0%)
• Zhang Weili ($8,000, Proj: 78.1, Own: 35.4%, Odds: -105)

Value Tier ($7,500-$7,999)

Top Play: Tom Nolan (+115) ($7,900)

Tom Nolan ($7,900) presents an intriguing mid-range option with a solid value projection of 9.17x and a 35.1% optimal lineup rate. At 6’3”, he’s an unusually tall lightweight, which gives him significant reach and striking advantages, though his upright stance leaves him vulnerable to counters. While his recent performances have been mixed—dominating Victor Martinez with ground strikes but putting on a less impressive showing against Alex Reyes—his ability to control range and land volume makes him a viable DFS play. Facing Slava Borshchev, who has struggled against pressure fighters in the past, Nolan’s path to success likely involves using his length to keep the fight standing and racking up significant strikes.

At 29.9% projected ownership, Nolan is slightly above the field average but not overwhelmingly chalky. Given his moderate +115 odds and recent inconsistencies, this ownership level feels justified for tournaments, especially considering his high tournament rank (4th) and optimal percentage. His ceiling may be somewhat limited without strong finishing upside or grappling points, but at $7,900, he doesn’t need much to pay off his salary. If you’re comfortable with some risk in exchange for value and potential leverage on similarly priced fighters, Nolan is worth considering across formats.

Other Value Options

• Jimmy Crute ($7,700, Proj: 71.6, Own: 18.2%, Odds: +135)
• Justin Tafa ($7,800, Proj: 71.6, Own: 20.7%, Odds: +115)

Bargain Tier (Under $7,500)

Top Play: Rong Zhu ($7,100)

Rong Zhu ($7,100) offers intriguing value at his price point, projecting for 9.84x return and a solid 21.7% optimal lineup rate. While his UFC record (1-3) and recent performances leave much to be desired, including back-to-back losses with durability concerns, his high-paced style could still translate into DFS scoring potential. Rong tends to push forward with volume striking and aggression, which creates opportunities to rack up significant strikes or even find a finish against Kody Steele—a relative newcomer who’s unproven at this level. At this salary, Rong doesn’t need to win to hit value, but his path to an optimal score likely requires him staying competitive or securing an early stoppage.

The projected ownership of 29.5% is slightly above the field average, making him moderately chalky for a value play. While there’s some risk given his recent struggles and the wear-and-tear on his young career (30+ pro fights by age 24), the combination of low salary and stylistic upside justifies the ownership in tournaments. Steele’s inexperience adds appeal here, as Rong’s aggressive approach could exploit any defensive lapses. That said, tread carefully in cash games due to his volatility—this is more of a GPP dart throw with clear upside but plenty of red flags.

Other Bargain Options

• Jack Jenkins ($7,300, Proj: 65.4, Own: 13.8%, Odds: +190)
• Francisco Prado ($7,400, Proj: 65.5, Own: 13.3%, Odds: +195)
• Jonathan Micallef ($7,200, Proj: 63.5, Own: 10.3%, Odds: +210)

Good luck! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Fighter Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!