FREE 03/08 UFC Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

The UFC 313 DFS slate is shaping up to be an exciting puzzle with 24 fighters on the card and plenty of strategic decisions to make. With an average salary of $8,100, roster construction will be key, especially as 14 fighters are projected for high ownership (20%+). This means finding leverage plays and value options could make all the difference in your lineups. Two strong value plays stand out with 8x+ potential and projections north of 80 fantasy points—building around them could free up salary for the heavy hitters like Alex Pereira or Magomed Ankalaev in the main event. Ownership trends will also make fighters in the mid-tier range crucial, so you’ll want to identify those who can deliver high upside at reasonable prices.

The action doesn’t stop at the top of the card either. The co-main event rematch between Justin Gaethje and Rafael Fiziev has fireworks written all over it, and their scoring potential in a back-and-forth fight makes them key considerations depending on your lineup strategy. If you are hunting for GPP darts to differentiate yourself from the field, this slate offers plenty of ways to get creative. Let’s break down our top plays for this slate.

Premium Tier ($9,000-$10,000)

Top Play: Curtis Blaydes (-258) ($9,100)

Curtis Blaydes ($9,100) stands out as a top-tier DFS option this week, combining elite metrics with a favorable matchup. Known for his dominant wrestling and ground-and-pound style, Blaydes has the tools to rack up significant DraftKings points through control time, takedowns, and volume on the mat. His opponent, Rizvan Kuniev, is making his UFC debut, and while Kuniev has shown promise on the regional scene, the experience gap here is glaring. Blaydes’ ability to neutralize opponents with relentless pressure and grappling makes him a high-floor play in cash games and an appealing ceiling option for tournaments. His -258 betting odds reflect his strong chances of securing a win in this spot.

At 39.8% projected ownership—moderately above the field average—Blaydes will be popular but not overwhelmingly so. Given his 49% optimal lineup percentage and tournament-best value of 8.97x, this chalk appears justified in both cash and GPPs. While heavyweight fights carry inherent risk due to knockout potential, Blaydes’ grinding style tends to mitigate that volatility. If he can implement his usual game plan against a less-experienced opponent, he’s well-positioned to deliver on his price tag with upside for an early finish or dominant decision.

Other Premium Options

• Carlos Leal ($9,600, Proj: 89.6, Own: 41.0%, Odds: -450)
• Mauricio Ruffy ($9,400, Proj: 78.9, Own: 33.8%, Odds: -350)

Mid-Range Tier ($8,000-$8,999)

Top Play: Rafael Fiziev (-145) ($8,400)

Rafael Fiziev ($8,400) steps into UFC 313 on short notice for a rematch against Justin Gaethje, a fighter who edged him out in their first meeting. Despite the loss, Fiziev showed his striking prowess by keeping the significant strikes close (103-97) in a high-paced fight that earned Fight of the Night honors. With a strong kickboxing base and the ability to maintain volume, Fiziev has clear DFS appeal, especially at this salary. His -145 betting odds suggest he’s a slight favorite, and his 31.5% optimal lineup percentage aligns with his potential to deliver in tournaments. However, there’s some risk here—he’s coming off an extended layoff due to a torn ACL and faces an opponent who has already proven capable of weathering his early aggression.

At 31.3% projected ownership, Fiziev is moderately popular but not overwhelmingly chalky compared to field averages. The ownership feels justified given his ceiling as an elite striker with finishing upside if he can overwhelm Gaethje early. That said, this matchup isn’t without concerns; Gaethje’s durability and power make him dangerous over three rounds, especially if Fiziev slows down late like he did in their first bout. For tournaments, Fiziev offers solid mid-range value with paths to both significant strikes and a potential finish, but factoring in his injury history and short-notice circumstances makes him more volatile than some other options in this price range.

Other Mid-Range Options

• Jalin Turner ($8,000, Proj: 59.3, Own: 27.5%, Odds: -210)
• John Castaneda ($8,200, Proj: 57.0, Own: 13.8%)

Value Tier ($7,500-$7,999)

Top Play: Magomed Ankalaev (-162) ($7,900)

Magomed Ankalaev ($7,900) is an intriguing DFS option with a solid combination of value and upside. While his projected 61.2 DraftKings points isn’t eye-popping, his Optimal Lineup percentage (40%) and strong 7.75x value make him a viable play, particularly at this mid-range salary. Ankalaev’s well-rounded skill set—mixing striking, durability, and grappling when needed—gives him multiple paths to scoring, even in a tough matchup against Alex Pereira. Pereira’s elite striking is a clear threat, but Ankalaev’s ability to push forward and control the pace could help mitigate that danger if he leans on his grappling more than he did in his recent decision win over Aleksandar Rakic.

At 44.5% projected ownership, Ankalaev will likely be one of the more popular plays on this slate, but the chalk seems justified given his value and path to victory. His moderate price tag allows flexibility for lineup construction while offering legitimate tournament-winning upside if he can mix in takedowns or control time against Pereira. While there’s always risk facing a dangerous striker like Pereira, Ankalaev’s durability and cardio make him a strong consideration in all formats. If you’re comfortable eating some ownership chalk, he fits well as a core piece in balanced builds.

Other Value Options

• Brunno Ferreira ($7,600, Proj: 53.7, Own: 36.5%, Odds: -150)
• Amanda Lemos ($7,700, Proj: 48.4, Own: 18.7%, Odds: -156)

Bargain Tier (Under $7,500)

Top Play: Rei Tsuruya (+145) ($7,400)

Rei Tsuruya ($7,400) offers intriguing value as a low-cost option with solid upside for tournaments. His grappling-heavy style was on full display in his UFC debut, where he dominated mat exchanges and secured a unanimous decision win. While his striking remains underdeveloped and he faded late in that fight, the 22-year-old’s creativity in scrambles and ability to control opponents on the ground provide a clear path to DFS scoring through takedowns and control time. With a projection of 52.3 DK points and a strong 7.07x value rating, Tsuruya is priced favorably for someone with his floor and ceiling combination.

At 24.6% projected ownership, Tsuruya is sitting near field average, making him neither an overwhelming chalk play nor an under-the-radar option. His +145 betting odds suggest he’s a live underdog, but the matchup against Joshua Van could expose some of his weaknesses if the fight remains standing for extended periods. Still, with an Optimal Lineup percentage of 25.6%, Tsuruya has legitimate potential to outperform his salary in lineups that prioritize high-value underdogs. He’s best suited for GPPs where his grappling could lead to tournament-winning upside if he secures dominant positions or finishes on the mat.

Other Bargain Options

• King Green ($6,800, Proj: 38.1, Own: 13.5%)
• Francis Marshall ($7,000, Proj: 40.3, Own: 16.0%, Odds: +170)

Good luck! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Fighter Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!