FREE 03/15 UFC Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

The UFC Vegas 104 DFS slate is shaping up to be a challenging yet exciting puzzle, with 26 fighters on the card and an average salary of $8,100 to work with. Ownership trends will play a big role this week, as 15 fighters are projected at over 20% ownership, meaning roster construction will require some creativity to differentiate from the field. With three strong value plays capable of hitting 8x+ value and scoring 80+ points, identifying the right mix of chalk and leverage spots will be key. Fighters like Marvin Vettori bring high-volume striking and five-round potential but come with questions about ring rust and durability after a brutal loss to Jared Cannonier. Meanwhile, Roman Dolidze offers underdog value with knockout power that could swing a lineup if things break his way.

This slate also features several volatile matchups where mid-range pricing meets inconsistent fighters, such as Alex Hernandez vs. Kurt Holobaugh or Chidi Njokuani vs. Zaleski dos Santos. These bouts offer upside for DFS scoring but carry significant risk due to cardio issues or durability concerns on both sides. Additionally, heavyweight fights like Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Spann could see low output, making them less appealing unless you’re banking on an unexpected finish. With limited salary flexibility due to heavy favorites dominating the card, finding the right balance between safer plays and lower-owned underdogs is crucial to success this weekend. Let’s break down our top plays for this slate.

Premium Tier ($9,000-$10,000)

Top Play: Kevin Vallejos (-325) ($9,100)

Kevin Vallejos ($9,100) enters his UFC debut as a justified -325 favorite, and his DFS profile is strong across the board. With an impressive 88-point projection and a tournament-best 37.7% optimal lineup rate, Vallejos brings a high floor and ceiling combination that makes him worth consideration even at elevated ownership (49.1%). His striking-heavy style, highlighted by a Round 1 TKO win on the Contender Series, offers significant scoring potential through volume and finishing ability. While he faces a size disadvantage against Seungwoo Choi, Choi’s recent struggles (four losses in his last five fights) suggest Vallejos can overcome those physical challenges with his aggressive pace and sharp boxing.

The high ownership is certainly worth noting, but it seems warranted given Vallejos’ metrics and favorable matchup. At $9,100, he provides solid value (9.67x), making him a viable play in both cash games and tournaments despite the chalk. His ability to finish early adds upside for GPPs, while his striking volume creates a stable floor for safer formats. If you’re comfortable eating some chalk in this price range, Vallejos looks like one of the more reliable options on the slate.

Other Premium Options

• Josias Musasa ($9,400, Proj: 83.9, Own: 36.6%, Odds: -550)
• SuYoung You ($9,500, Proj: 82.4, Own: 25.2%)

Mid-Range Tier ($8,000-$8,999)

Top Play: Diyar Nurgozhay (-225) ($8,900)

Diyar Nurgozhay enters his UFC debut with a perfect 10-0 record and a reputation for finishing fights, highlighted by his recent head-kick KO on the Contender Series. Priced at $8,900, he’s a strong DFS option with solid metrics, including an 8.6x value projection and a 38.3% optimal lineup rate. His aggressive striking style and ability to find finishes make him appealing for tournaments, especially against Brendson Ribeiro, who has struggled in the UFC with two losses in three fights. The primary concern is Nurgozhay’s seven-inch reach disadvantage, which could impact his ability to close distance effectively, but his -225 betting odds as the favorite suggest he’s expected to overcome that obstacle.

The high projected ownership (43.8%) reflects confidence in Nurgozhay’s upside, though it does limit his leverage in tournaments. While chalky fighters can sometimes be overvalued, this level of exposure feels justified given his finishing potential and favorable matchup against an opponent who hasn’t proven UFC-ready. For cash games, he’s one of the safer plays at light heavyweight due to his strong win probability and ability to score well even without a finish. In tournaments, pairing him with lower-owned fighters could help offset the popularity while still capitalizing on his upside.

Other Mid-Range Options

• Marvin Vettori ($8,200, Proj: 69.1, Own: 42.6%, Odds: -200)
• Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos ($8,400, Proj: 65.6, Own: 33.0%, Odds: -175)

Value Tier ($7,500-$7,999)

Top Play: Kurt Holobaugh (+145) ($7,600)

Kurt Holobaugh ($7,600) offers intriguing value as a mid-range salary option, especially for tournaments. His projected 7.17x value and 34.7% optimal lineup rate suggest he’s worth considering in DFS lineups despite his underdog status (+145). Holobaugh’s striking volume and ability to win rounds on the feet give him a decent scoring floor, but his struggles defending takedowns (as seen in previous bouts) could limit his upside if Alexander Hernandez looks to exploit that weakness. Still, with four wins in his last five fights and improved performances in his recent UFC stint, Holobaugh has shown he’s capable of outperforming expectations when he can keep the fight standing.

At 29.3% projected ownership, Holobaugh is moderately popular but not overly chalky relative to the field average. While this level of ownership makes him less of a leverage play, it reflects confidence in his affordability and potential to exceed value at $7,600. If you’re looking for a cost-effective fighter who can stay competitive on the feet and potentially pull off an upset, Holobaugh fits the bill—just keep in mind the risk if Hernandez leans on his wrestling. He’s best suited for tournaments where his price and optimal percentage align well with lineup construction strategies.

Other Value Options

• Ryan Spann ($7,900, Proj: 50.2, Own: 22.5%, Odds: +150)
• Priscila Cachoeira ($7,700, Proj: 49.5, Own: 21.9%, Odds: +190)

Bargain Tier (Under $7,500)

Top Play: Yuneisy Duben (+475) ($6,900)

At just $6,900, Yuneisy Duben stands out as a value play with significant upside for tournaments. Her explosive knockout power, showcased in her Contender Series upset win as a massive underdog, makes her a high-risk, high-reward option. While her +475 betting odds highlight the challenges she faces in her UFC debut against Carli Judice, Duben’s 27.4% optimal lineup percentage suggests she has real potential to deliver at this salary. Judice’s history of struggling in close fights and Duben’s aggressive style give her a path to a finish, which is crucial for DFS scoring. The concern here is Duben’s lack of UFC experience and the height and reach disadvantage she’ll need to overcome, but her ability to end fights early keeps her firmly in play.

With projected ownership at 28.3%, slightly above field average, Duben isn’t sneaky but could still be worth the chalk in tournaments given her salary relief and finishing potential. Her 6.09x value projection makes her one of the best point-per-dollar plays on the slate if she can replicate her Contender Series performance. However, because of her low floor if she fails to secure an early finish or struggles against Judice’s range, she’s less appealing for cash lineups despite ranking 13th there. In tournaments, though, Duben is an intriguing dart throw who can open up access to higher-priced fighters without sacrificing much upside.

Other Bargain Options

• Sam Hughes ($7,400, Proj: 46.6, Own: 17.4%, Odds: +275)
• Daniel Barez ($7,200, Proj: 39.2, Own: 13.0%, Odds: +210)

Good luck! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Fighter Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!