FREE 03/22 UFC Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

The UFC London slate brings plenty of intrigue for DFS players with 26 fighters on the card and some interesting pricing dynamics to consider. With an average salary of $8,100 and 17 fighters projected for 20%+ ownership, roster construction will require strategic pivots to differentiate your lineups. Leon Edwards, fighting in front of his home crowd, is priced as a value play despite concerns about his takedown defense against Sean Brady’s relentless wrestling. Meanwhile, Carlos Ulberg comes in as an overpriced favorite against the veteran Jan Blachowicz, who could offer leverage in GPPs if he can exploit Ulberg’s lack of grappling experience. Ownership trends suggest that targeting under-the-radar options in mid-range pricing could be key to gaining an edge.

From a scoring perspective, there’s one standout value play projected to hit 8x+ return—an opportunity you don’t want to overlook when building your lineups. Heavyweight matchups like Parkin vs. Tybura could also deliver sneaky upside given their low salaries and potential for early finishes. On the flip side, Kevin Holland’s inability to defend submissions makes Gunnar Nelson an intriguing option for grappling-heavy scoring if you’re willing to take on some risk with his long layoff. Whether you’re looking for control time from wrestlers or knockout potential from strikers, this slate has it all. Let’s break down our top plays for this slate.

Premium Tier ($9,000-$10,000)

Top Play: Christian Leroy Duncan (-400) ($9,600)

Christian Leroy Duncan ($9,600) enters this matchup as a heavy -400 favorite against UFC newcomer Andrey Pulyaev, which positions him as one of the most likely winners on the slate. His striking-heavy style and ability to control distance give him a path to rack up significant strikes while avoiding extended grappling exchanges where he’s struggled in the past. With a projection of 85.5 DraftKings points and an optimal lineup percentage of 35%, Duncan offers both floor and ceiling potential, especially in tournaments where his finishing upside could separate him from other high-salary options.

However, at 47.9% projected ownership, Duncan is one of the chalkiest plays on the slate. While his dominance on paper justifies some of that popularity, his recent loss to Gregory Rodrigues exposed weaknesses against pressure and grappling-heavy opponents. Pulyaev’s Contender Series background suggests he may bring aggression, but it’s tough to gauge how his skills will translate against UFC-level competition. Ultimately, Duncan’s combination of scoring potential and win probability makes him a strong play in all formats, but his high ownership requires careful roster construction if you’re looking for leverage in tournaments.

Other Premium Options

• Jordan Vucenic ($9,300, Proj: 77.6, Own: 30.9%, Odds: -160)
• Lone’er Kavanagh ($9,100, Proj: 67.5, Own: 21.9%)
• Carlos Ulberg ($9,000, Proj: 71.5, Own: 34.9%, Odds: -200)

Mid-Range Tier ($8,000-$8,999)

Top Play: Sean Brady (+130) ($8,600)

Sean Brady ($8,600) is a strong DFS option this week, offering both a solid floor and tournament-winning upside. His well-rounded skill set was on full display in his recent dominant win over Gilbert Burns, where he racked up 274 total strikes and over 10 minutes of control time. Brady’s wrestling-heavy approach is ideal for DraftKings scoring, as takedowns and control time can quickly add up points even in fights that go the distance. His striking has also improved enough to keep him competitive against high-level opponents like Leon Edwards. While his +130 betting odds suggest he’s an underdog, his DFS projection of 72.98 points and top-tier optimal lineup rate (44.3%) indicate he’s worth the price tag in all formats.

The biggest concern with Brady is his massive projected ownership (52.9%), which makes him one of the chalkiest plays on the slate. However, this chalk feels justified given his scoring potential and reasonable salary at $8,600. With a value rating of 8.49x, Brady checks all the boxes for cash games as one of the safest options available. In tournaments, you’ll need to decide whether to eat the chalk or pivot to lower-owned fighters with similar upside, but fading him entirely could be risky given how well his style translates to DFS scoring. If he can replicate even a portion of his last performance against Burns, Brady has a clear path to smashing value here.

Other Mid-Range Options

• Alexia Thainara ($8,900, Proj: 68.9, Own: 20.0%, Odds: +326)
• Mick Parkin ($8,000, Proj: 52.6, Own: 24.7%, Odds: +160)
• Gunnar Nelson ($8,500, Proj: 60.8, Own: 23.1%, Odds: +115)

Value Tier ($7,500-$7,999)

Top Play: Caolan Loughran (-150) ($7,800)

Caolan Loughran ($7,800) offers intriguing value as a mid-range DFS play this week. With a 7.21x value projection and a strong Optimal Lineup Percentage of 32.9%, he’s clearly priced to outperform expectations. While his UFC record (1-2) and recent loss to Jake Hadley raise concerns, it’s worth noting that Loughran faced that opponent on short notice, which likely impacted his performance. His grappling-heavy approach—despite going just 1-for-8 on takedowns in his last fight—still provides a path to scoring if he can secure control time. Against Nathan Fletcher, who has yet to face significant adversity in the UFC, Loughran’s experience could give him an edge if the fight goes deep.

At 35.9% projected ownership, Loughran is firmly in chalk territory, but it may be justified given his betting odds (-150) and salary-friendly price tag. The field appears to recognize the value here, but moderate ownership near the slate average doesn’t make him an auto-fade either. His lack of finishing ability (all three UFC fights have gone the distance) limits his ceiling somewhat, but his floor is solid for cash games or balanced tournament builds. If you believe Fletcher struggles against pressure or grappling exchanges, Loughran makes sense as part of your lineup core at this price point.

Other Value Options

• Nathaniel Wood ($7,500, Proj: 50.8, Own: 25.8%, Odds: -240)
• Chris Padilla ($7,900, Proj: 54.9, Own: 36.3%, Odds: +150)
• Kevin Holland ($7,700, Proj: 50.7, Own: 28.6%, Odds: -135)

Bargain Tier (Under $7,500)

Top Play: Molly McCann (-426) ($7,300)

Molly McCann ($7,300) is a polarizing DFS option this week, offering value at her price point but coming with clear risks. Her aggressive striking style can generate significant volume, which is key for DraftKings scoring, but her recent struggles—losing four of her last five fights—highlight concerns about her ability to execute effectively against higher-level opponents. Her matchup against Alexia Thainara, a late replacement with an impressive 11-1 record, adds another layer of uncertainty. While McCann has shown finishing upside in the past, particularly when fighting in London where she’s historically performed well (three wins in four UFC London bouts), her vulnerability on the ground—evidenced by multiple submission losses—lowers her floor considerably.

At 28.8% projected ownership, McCann is moderately chalky for a fighter ranked just 17th in tournament scoring potential and projecting for only 48.5 DK points. The betting odds (-426) suggest she’s heavily favored to win, which justifies some of the ownership, but it’s worth noting that Thainara could test McCann’s grappling deficiencies if the fight hits the mat. McCann’s 20.7% optimal lineup rate makes her a viable play in tournaments due to her salary relief and potential for volume-based scoring if she can keep the fight standing. However, given her recent inconsistencies and elevated ownership compared to other value options on the slate, she may be better suited as part of a balanced lineup rather than a core piece in your builds.

Other Bargain Options

• Puja Tomar ($7,400, Proj: 45.2, Own: 21.9%, Odds: -255)
• Kaue Fernandes ($6,800, Proj: 33.7, Own: 11.5%, Odds: +235)
• Felipe dos Santos ($7,100, Proj: 37.8, Own: 8.5%, Odds: +250)

Good luck! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Fighter Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!