FREE 04/05 UFC Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

The UFC heads back to the Apex this weekend with a 12-fight slate that promises plenty of DFS intrigue. With 24 fighters on the card and an average salary of $8,046, roster construction will require some sharp decisions—especially with 15 fighters projected for 20%+ ownership. While there’s a lot of chalk at the top, two strong value plays (each projected for 8x+ value and 80+ points) could be the key to unlocking high-upside lineups. This slate also offers several stylistic matchups that favor big fantasy scores, including explosive strikers like Brito and Lee, as well as grapplers like Alencar who can dominate in control time. Keeping an eye on fighter-specific trends like takedown defense and striking volume will be critical when building your core.

Ownership leverage and pricing strategy will likely shape this slate more than usual, given the concentration of popular plays. Fighters like Nzechukwu and Finney stand out as potential anchors thanks to their favorable matchups and ability to rack up significant fantasy points through finishes or dominant decision wins. Meanwhile, some underdogs—such as Meerschaert—offer sneaky upside in fights where their paths to victory align well with DFS scoring metrics like submissions or control time. Whether you’re targeting high-volume strikers or grapplers who can grind out big scores, this card has options at every price point to build balanced or stars-and-scrubs lineups. Let’s break down our top plays for this slate.

Premium Tier ($9,000-$10,000)

Top Play: Dione Barbosa (-350) ($9,400)

Dione Barbosa ($9,400) is one of the most intriguing options on this slate, offering a strong combination of scoring potential and win probability. With betting odds of -350, she’s a clear favorite against Diana Belbita, who has struggled in the UFC with a 2-5 record and back-to-back losses. Barbosa’s style, which blends striking volume with solid grappling ability, gives her multiple paths to rack up DraftKings points. Her projection of 86.4 DK points and an optimal lineup rate of 40.9% reflect her ability to control the fight and potentially secure a finish against an opponent who has been vulnerable to pressure.

At 47.7% projected ownership, Barbosa will be popular, but that chalk seems justified given her upside and favorable matchup. While her salary is high at $9,400, her value rating of 9.19x suggests she can still exceed expectations if she dominates as expected. In tournaments, she’s a viable play despite the ownership because of her ceiling, but pairing her with lower-owned fighters can help differentiate your lineup. For cash games, Barbosa’s reliability makes her one of the safest plays on the slate given Belbita’s struggles and Barbosa’s well-rounded skill set.

Other Premium Options

• Lerone Murphy ($9,300, Proj: 84.9, Own: 51.0%, Odds: -298)
• Torrez Finney ($9,000, Proj: 74.5, Own: 35.1%, Odds: -148)

Mid-Range Tier ($8,000-$8,999)

Top Play: Joanderson Brito (-180) ($8,700)

Joanderson Brito ($8,700) is a solid option for DFS lineups this week, offering both finishing upside and a reasonable floor. With 15 career wins coming via KO/TKO or submission, Brito has the tools to score big in DraftKings’ scoring system if he can secure an early finish. While his recent split-decision loss to William Gomis was a tough pill to swallow, it’s worth noting that Brito’s strong takedown game and pressure-heavy style make him dangerous against opponents who struggle with grappling exchanges. His -180 betting odds suggest he’s a clear favorite, which aligns with his high 41.9% optimal lineup rate—second best on the slate.

However, Brito’s projected ownership of 40.3% makes him one of the chalkier plays this week, so you’ll need to weigh whether his upside justifies eating that level of popularity in tournaments. Given his ability to score well through finishes and grappling control, the chalk looks warranted here, especially with his favorable value rating (8.66x). That said, Brito does come with some risk given his opponent Pat Sabatini’s submission skills, so there’s a path for this fight to stay competitive if it hits the mat. Overall, Brito remains a strong play in all formats but may require diversification in tournament builds due to ownership concerns.

Other Mid-Range Options

• Luis Gurule ($8,900, Proj: 71.7, Own: 37.3%, Odds: -200)
• Victor Henry ($8,800, Proj: 68.3, Own: 22.3%, Odds: -155)

Value Tier ($7,500-$7,999)

Top Play: Cortavious Romious (-250) ($7,800)

Cortavious Romious ($7,800) presents an intriguing value option on this slate, but his missed weight raises some concerns. At a projected 57.4 DK points and a solid value of 7.35x, he has the potential to outperform his salary, particularly given his -250 betting odds as a favorite. His aggressive striking style and willingness to push the pace could help him rack up significant strikes and control time against Chang Ho Lee, who is making his UFC debut. However, Romious’ size disadvantage (giving up four inches in height and one inch in reach) could hinder his ability to close distance effectively if Lee uses that range to keep him at bay. The missed weight also adds uncertainty—both in terms of how it impacts his cardio and whether this fight will proceed as planned.

At 36.6% projected ownership, Romious will be moderately chalky compared to the field average of 25%, which makes sense given his price point and win odds. While the ownership isn’t egregious, there’s some risk in leaning heavily on him for tournaments due to his lower-than-ideal projection (57.4 DK points) and questionable ceiling relative to other fighters in this range. Still, his strong optimal lineup percentage (26.4%) suggests he has a path to delivering value if he can secure an early finish or dominate over three rounds. Ultimately, Romious is viable for both cash games and tournaments but carries enough red flags—weight miss, physical disadvantages—to warrant diversification elsewhere in your lineups.

Other Value Options

• Rhys McKee ($7,600, Proj: 50.4, Own: 23.6%, Odds: +125)
• Uran Satybaldiev ($7,900, Proj: 49.9, Own: 16.8%, Odds: -130)

Bargain Tier (Under $7,500)

Top Play: Martin Buday (+110) ($7,000)

Martin Buday ($7,000) stands out as one of the best value plays on the slate, and for good reason. At this price point, his 9.1x value projection and a 63.3% optimal lineup rate make him a strong consideration in all formats. While he’s now facing Uran Satybaldiev on short notice, this matchup arguably works in Buday’s favor. Satybaldiev is making his UFC debut with less than a month since his last fight, which raises questions about his readiness for a three-round heavyweight bout against an experienced opponent like Buday. Despite giving up three inches in reach, Buday’s ability to pressure opponents and control exchanges in close quarters should allow him to capitalize on any mistakes from the less-seasoned newcomer.

The projected ownership of 45.5% may seem high but feels justified given Buday’s combination of affordability and upside. His +110 betting odds suggest he’s essentially a coin flip to win despite being priced near the bottom of the salary range, which creates significant value for DFS purposes. While he doesn’t have elite finishing ability, his consistent output and path to victory through control time make him appealing even in decisions. With the highest tournament rank on the slate and a favorable stylistic matchup against an untested opponent, Buday is chalk worth eating in most builds.

Other Bargain Options

• Pedro Falcao ($7,400, Proj: 52.2, Own: 25.4%, Odds: +135)
• Josh Emmett ($6,900, Proj: 47.7, Own: 28.7%, Odds: +240)

Good luck! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Fighter Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!