FREE 05/03 UFC Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

UFC Des Moines features 24 fighters with an average salary around $8,100, presenting a balanced mix of mid-range options and value plays. The pricing structure is relatively tight, with six fighters expected to draw heavy ownership (30%+), which calls for strategic roster construction to differentiate lineups. Standouts like Cory Sandhagen and Bo Nickal offer high floors and upside, fitting well into cash games, while Montel Jackson provides an intriguing captain option given his physical tools and matchup advantages. Meanwhile, value candidates such as Cameron Smotherman present solid upside in GPPs thanks to their aggressive styles and favorable odds.

Key matchups to monitor include Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo, where striking control meets grappling threat, and Nickal vs. de Ridder, a classic wrestler-versus-submission artist scenario with strong DFS implications. Daniel Rodriguez’s volume-based approach contrasts with Ponzinibbio’s power in their bout, making Rodriguez a safer scoring bet. Montel Jackson stands out as a potential low-owned pivot against Marcos due to his reach and precision striking. With four clear 8x+ salary multipliers on the board alongside these chalky targets, lineup flexibility will be critical. Let’s break down our top plays for this slate.

Premium Tier ($9,000-$10,000)

Top Play: Cory Sandhagen (-235) ($9,400)

Cory Sandhagen’s dynamic striking and reach advantage make him a compelling DFS option despite his recent decision loss. He consistently pressures opponents with volume and movement, forcing them to defend while avoiding prolonged grappling exchanges. His ability to fend off takedowns preserves his scoring upside through significant strikes, which is crucial given his tendency to rack up points even when finishing chances are limited. At $9,400, he offers a solid floor with the potential for bonus points in a matchup that favors his range and pace.

While Sandhagen’s ownership is elevated at 43.5%, reflecting confidence in his skill set, this also signals that rostering him requires lineup differentiation elsewhere. His path to success lies in outstriking rather than overpowering opponents on the ground, making him particularly appealing against fighters who struggle with distance management. Given his tournament rank and role as a top-tier bantamweight, he remains a reliable pick for DFS players seeking balance between consistency and upside at an elite salary tier.

Other Premium Options

• Mason Jones ($9,500, Own: 39.3%, Odds: -350)
• Bo Nickal ($9,100, Own: 34.7%, Odds: -205)

Mid-Range Tier ($8,000-$8,999)

Top Play 1: Thomas Petersen (-350) ($8,900)

Thomas Petersen offers an intriguing DFS play given his balanced skill set and path to multiple scoring opportunities. While his recent knockout loss exposed some defensive lapses, Petersen’s ability to mix takedowns with heavy striking volume keeps him relevant across categories. Against Don’Tale Mayes—a fellow heavyweight coming off consecutive losses and submission vulnerabilities—Petersen can leverage pressure and control time to build a solid floor. His price point reflects both risk and upside, making him a strong mid-tier option for those seeking a reliable source of points without overspending.

Ownership sits near the field average, which limits chalkiness and adds leverage potential in tournaments. Petersen’s wrestling foundation combined with power strikes creates multiple avenues for fantasy production, especially if he avoids early mistakes. The matchup favors a fighter who can dictate pace and impose physicality, which aligns well with Petersen’s style when focused. Given his fourth-ranked projection on the slate, he’s worth considering as a core heavyweight target capable of steady output with upside for finishes or control bonuses.

Top Play 2: Montel Jackson (-120) ($8,700)

Montel Jackson’s blend of explosive striking and quick finishes makes him a strong DFS play at $8,700. His recent 18-second knockout highlights his ability to rack up significant damage and secure fast finishes, which can lead to big upside in scoring. With five straight wins and solid UFC experience, Jackson consistently pressures opponents with sharp, powerful punches that create multiple paths to points—whether through knockdowns or a potential finish. Facing an unbeaten but less tested Daniel Marcos gives Jackson the edge in experience and finishing potential.

Jackson’s moderate ownership near 30% reflects respect for his high-floor style without oversaturation, making him a smart pivot in tournaments. His aggressive approach often translates into early damage bonuses, while his pace ensures steady strike volume if the fight extends. At bantamweight, where fights can end quickly but also favor technical precision, Jackson’s speed and power align well with DFS scoring metrics. This combination of finishing upside and reliable activity underlines why he’s worth considering among top-tier options this week.

Other Mid-Range Options

• Santiago Ponzinibbio ($8,200, Own: 23.0%, Odds: -110)
• Ivana Petrovic ($8,800, Own: 24.4%, Odds: -250)

Value Tier ($7,000-$7,999)

Top Play: Quang Le (+140) ($7,700)

Quang Le’s UFC tenure has been challenging, but his aggressive style and willingness to engage could translate to DFS value against Gaston Bolanos. Le tends to push the pace early, looking to score significant strikes and create openings for a finish. While he’s yet to secure a UFC win, his volume striking offers a scoring floor that can pay off if he avoids damage. At $7,700, he sits in a mid-range salary bracket where volume and activity can separate him from similarly priced options.

Le faces an opponent with modest UFC experience but who hasn’t shown dominant control over fights, which opens potential paths for Le to rack up points through striking exchanges or a late stoppage attempt. His projected ownership is slightly above field average, reflecting some skepticism about his durability but also recognition of his upside if he capitalizes on Bolanos’ inconsistencies. For tournament formats seeking contrarian upside at this price point, Le is worth considering as a moderately risky play with finishing potential.

Other Value Options

• Cameron Smotherman ($7,800, Own: 26.9%, Odds: -125)
• Yana Santos ($7,900, Own: 20.2%, Odds: -110)

Good luck! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Fighter Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!