The UFC 308 card offers a variety of high-upside finishers, strategic pivots, and potential value plays across all price points. With fighters like Kennedy Nzechukwu and Khamzat Chimaev holding strong finish probabilities, this card offers exciting opportunities for DFS players to target matchups with knockout potential. However, with an early start time of 10 a.m. EST, I’ll keep this breakdown concise, emphasizing high-priority plays, intriguing mid-tier options, and value plays with upset potential.



Kennedy Nzechukwu 68% Finish Line; 32% First Round Finish; 84% Implied Win Prob.

Khamzat Chimaev 55% Finish Line; 23% First Round Finish; 68% Win Prob.

Ilia Topuria 42% Finish Line; 14% First Round Finish; 67% Implied Win Prob.

Abus Magomedov 40% Finish Line; 23% First Round Finish; 57% Win Prob.

Favorite Value Plays/Live Dog Options (8k and below)

The highest upside fighters are Myktybek Orolbai (27% ownership), Khamzat Chimaev (52% ownership), and Ilia Topuria (46% ownership) at their price points. Of those three, I am most concerned with Khamzat in that he has shown a questionable gas tank and is facing an all-time great that will be more difficult to get to the ground than most of his previous opponents. Also, Khamzat has dealt with undisclosed health issues that have resulted in re-scheduled fights and he is not very active as a fighter at all. The biggest concern was his fight against Gilbert Burns when it showcased some of his limitations against high-end talent; while he got the win, it was very dicey at times. I think he wins and probably scores pretty well, but you probably have to have some level of exposure to both sides here in 20 max and above. Topuria is also fighting an absolute warrior in Max Holloway. I think he gets the win, but these are elite fighters and you could easily make the case for Max. Ilia has the power that makes me lean his way. I expect he gets the finish, but you have to expect a mayhem in this bout. 

In looking at the underdogs, I put them in order of preference for me. I honestly expect all of them to lose, aside from Cerqueira maybe, but they are very much live for an upset. Cerqueira is a calm, calculated striker who is facing a less than technical fighter with questionable cardio. I like Cerqueira to possibly win here. The other bout with a questionable opponent is Armen Petrosyan. He is facing Shara Magomedov, who has frankly looked horrible in most of his fights. He’s undefeated in the UFC with a 3-0 record but has been set up for wins in very favorable matchups. Shara is not well rounded at all and seems like only a decent striker. This will probably be a kick boxing matchup with a win for Shara. In almost all of the Shara fights, I walk away thinking he’s way overrated and pretty underdeveloped in his skill set. Shara put up decent scores in his first two wins (97 and 93.5), but I don’t really love him here at 8.6k. Petrosyan is a good kick boxer in a orthodox style. Shara seems less comfortable against orthodox fighters based on how he throws his back leg kick from the dominant leg. Shara may struggle here. 

Key Fights

Ilia Topuria 8.8k vs. Max Holloway 7.4k

The UFC 308 main event is a high-stakes featherweight title bout between Ilia Topuria and Max Holloway. Holloway has dominated the division for over a decade, except for his losses to former champion Alexander Volkanovski. Topuria recently defeated Volkanovski, marking a shift in the division.

While Topuria is favored by both "MMA math" and betting odds, Holloway remains a formidable opponent, making it hard to pick a clear side. Both fighters score well in fantasy per minute; Holloway averages over seven significant strikes per minute, and Topuria combines four-plus strikes with takedowns and knockdowns. With a fight likely to reach championship rounds, the winner is poised for a high fantasy score, and the loser should still offer a solid floor.

Khamzat Chimaev 8.7k vs. Robert Whittaker 7.5k

The co-main event at UFC 308, scheduled for five rounds, features Khamzat Chimaev and Robert Whittaker in what could determine the next middleweight title contender. Chimaev is finally set to fight after a prior cancellation due to illness, while Whittaker enters on the heels of a first-round KO of Ikram Aliskerov.

In DFS, Chimaev’s early aggression gives him a high ceiling, boasting four first-round stoppages in seven UFC bouts, though his cardio remains a concern in later rounds. Whittaker’s five-round experience and 82% takedown defense could challenge Chimaev’s early blitz, possibly exhausting him.

For GPPs, both fighters have strong scoring potential, with Chimaev drawing high ownership despite risks. Whittaker offers appealing leverage, so it’s wise to favor him in GPPs. Unlike the main event, this fight isn’t a cash game priority as the winner likely holds most of the fantasy value.

In his UFC debut, Raffael Cerqueria (11-0 with 10 finishes, eight in the first round) faces Ibo Aslan ($8,200), known for his 13 knockout wins in 14 fights. Initially the underdog, Cerqueria has surged to a -135 favorite, making him a valuable pick given his lower price and high upside.

With limited clear value on the slate, Cerqueria is a strong option for DFS lineups, especially considering the fight’s -475 odds to end by finish. Including both fighters across lineups is wise, though Cerqueria's shift in odds makes him particularly appealing.

Armen Petrosyan 7.6k vs. Shara Magomedov 8.6k

Armen Petrosyan has gained favorable line movement, now around +130 to +145 odds. Facing fellow kickboxer Shara Magomedov ($8,600), this fight is expected to go the distance, offering a solid floor for both fighters.

Both average over 5.5 significant strikes per minute, and with Magomedov’s lack of takedowns, Petrosyan should be able to focus on striking. He may even add a takedown, enhancing his upside, making him a strong all-around DFS value and an excellent cash game floor play. Overall, I think Shara gets the win, but Armen is live for an upset. I think fading both sides might also make sense, especially if you like Shara here.

Magomed Ankalaev 9.4k vs. Aleksander Rakic 6.8k

Despite a strong -400 moneyline against Aleksander Rakic ($6,800), Ankalaev is expected to have low ownership due to limited finish potential (+200 odds). However, with Rakic coming off a knockout loss and a major knee injury, Ankalaev's chances for a decisive performance increase, especially with a title shot on the line.

Ankalaev makes a compelling GPP leverage play, particularly alongside Nzechukwu, as lineups with both high-salary fighters will be rare. This combination is one of my favorite GPP builds.

Good luck, everybody! I look forward to talking about strategy and ways to get different on this slate in Discord. Let’s get it!

10/26 UFC Cheat Sheet: Slate Breakdown

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