The UFC returns to Canada this Saturday for UFC Edmonton at Rogers Place. Former two-time champion Brandon Moreno ends his hiatus to headline against top contender Amir Albazi, a fight initially scheduled for UFC Mexico before Albazi's injury.

In the co-main event, women's flyweights face off as Erin Blanchfield, seeking to bounce back from her first UFC loss, battles former two-time strawweight champ Rose Namajunas.

Both matchups carry title implications. Albazi, with no fights since June 2023, aims to regain momentum, while Moreno’s star power keeps him close to another title shot. A win for Albazi could position him for a title challenge in early 2025.

Mike Malott 50% Finish Line; 25% First Round Finish; 74% Implied Win Prob.

Jhonata Diniz 49% Finish Line; 28% First Round Finish; 59% Win Prob.

Caio Machado 35% Finish Line; 20% First Round Finish; 59% Implied Win Prob.

Marc-Andre Barriault 33% Finish Line; 16% First Round Finish; 64% Win Prob.

Jamey-Lyn Horth and Jasmine Jasudavicius 66%

Favorite Value Plays/Live Dog Options (8k and below)

Brandon Moreno has lost two straight decisions. These losses were at the hands of two great fighters in Alexandre Pantoja and Brandon Royval. After the Pantoja loss, Moreno really hasn’t looked himself and he has spoken publicly about his mental and emotional struggles since that fight. He has been flat footed and unable to put his combinations together with the same fluidity he showed earlier in his career. The dude also went head-to-head in four epic battles with Figueiredo during his title run. You have to wonder if his love for the sport faded a bit. Historically, he has been extremely tough with non-stop pressure - it’s hard to say what fighter will show up tomorrow. He has put up 90+ DK points in four of his ten UFC fights; on a positive note, he has only put up less than 66 DK points in one fight since starting his UFC, so he obviously has a decent floor, especially if you think this will be another war, as would be typical in a Moreno fight. Amir Albazi is a good dog to consider, though, in part for the reasons I mentioned above. Also, he is good all round, with a solid jab and decent pace. He is undefeated in the UFC with wins over Figgy, Costa, and Kara-France. He has scored over 100 DK points in three of his five fights.

Rose Namajunas 7.8k vs. Erin Blanchfield 8.4k

Erin Blanchfield is a busy, tough competitor that will fight her your money. She shoots for takedowns continuously in an attempt to get the fight on the mat, although she’s not particularly great in this regard. If she is able to get Thug to the ground and control her, obviously she has a good chance at a finish. But that’s probably the same scenario in most of Rose’s fights and she’s made a career out of controlling distance and picking opponents apart. She is one of the best 115 pound fighters ever probably, with two wins over Weili and a win over Andrade. I thought Thug was going to get taken down repeatedly against Tracy Cortez in July and destroyed. But instead she picked her apart and put up 119.9 DK points. Rose can put up decent scores on DK at times with five out of ten fights scoring over 100 points. 

Caio Machado 8.5k vs. Brendson Ribiero 7.7k

Caio Machado is looking for his first win in the UFC. He is making his way down to light heavyweight after two straight decision losses. He seems better than his record would suggest, but who knows. He’s facing the Ribiero who comes out very aggressive and chases early finishes. But his gas tank goes quickly and he panics. Ribiero is much more dangerous, but overall, I would say Machado is the better fighter. 

Marc-Andre Barriault 8.9k vs. Dustin Stoltzfus 7.3k

I think Barriault is probably being set up for a home win after so many Canadians got smoked in the last card on their home ground. But who freaking knows here. At Barriault’s price I’m not sure I want high exposure. Stoltzfus is not the most durable guy in the world. But Stoltzfus is not a bum and he’s decent all round. He is live for a win or even a KO, but think it’s more of a long shot. So…I guess I don’t really love either side here personally. 

Here is probably another situation where a Canadian is being setup for a win. Malott is very good, I would say. He sold hard in the last fight after winning the first two round…and it cost a lot of us so much money. I get if you don’t want to play him based on being a quitter and kind of a little bitch based on his last performance, if that’s your perspective. But Malott has a 50% finish line and a 25% implied chance of finishing in the first round. Malott has put up over 100 DK points in three of his four bouts. If he survived another minute in his last fight, he would have put up a score in the 90s with a decision win. Devin Giles has a sick jab that he throws frequently. He usually wins fights throwing that jab and keeping the distance. But I don’t think it’ll be enough. Malott will probably play it a bit safe here, so that might limit his upside; however, I would not be surprised at all to see him get a finish in a big way. 

Pedro Munhoz 8.3k vs. Aiemann Zahabi 7.9k

Pedro Munhoz is a high volume striker. He is very experienced and has faced most of the big names in the weight class, including Vera and O’malley. Munhoz does not generally try to get fights to the ground. He is facing Aiemann Zahabi, who is a decent fighter with high fight IQ. He has been talking about knocking out Pedro, which no one has done. Zahabi will more likely try, and I think successfully, to stay on the outside and pick him apart. He has put up over 100 DK points in two of his seven fights. The fights he has scored well have been KO/TKOs.

Jasmine Jasudavicius 9k vs. Ariane da Silva 7.2k

Jasmine Jasudavicius is one of my favorite WMMA fighters. She’s just a dog all around who wrestles her ass off. Jasmine will let her hands go to open up the takedowns. Her background is as a wrestler. Ariane is a good striker, but will likely struggle to defend the takedowns, although she seems to be getting better in this area. I think Jasmine gets the takedowns and controls the fight. Jasmine’s price tag gives me some pause at 9k. She has scored above 85 DK points in five of her seven fights, but has only gotten over a 100 in two bouts.

Victor Henry 8k vs. Charles Jourdain 8.2k

These are both two very excited fighters. Air Jourdain is not very well rounded and seems a bit overrated. He’s not very durable. But he can make some crazy things happen with an opportunity. Victor Henry is much more well rounded and tends to score very well in his wins. I think Henry will do enough to get the win here and I want exposure to him. I might play a little of both sides here.

Youssef Zalal has re-established himself since previously getting cut from the UFC. In his first run in the UFC, he was a decision merchant, but he has come back in his second run in the UFC as an aggressive wrestler. He looks scary…and has gotten a submission in both of his last two bouts. You can just see the difference in his confidence. Shore is better than people think, but I still expect he’ll get straight smoked here.

Alexander Romanov 7.9k vs. Rodrigo Nascimento 8.2k

Alexander Romanov at some point just sold. He used to be terrifying and would bulldoze through guys like King Kong. He would take guys down and rain down heavy hands on them until the fight was finished. But he seemed to mentally break at some point and he has been a sloppy fatass in his recent fights. You can just see it in his physical presence, as if he’s not even training hard - or he’s drinking that purple drink like JaMarcus Russell or some shit. I don’t know, but he’s been looking like a sloppy fatass that seems like he doesn’t care anymore. I just watched the weigh-ins to see what he looked like for this fight. Yeah…he still looks super obese, especially by fighter norms. I’m kidding in a way, but he doesn’t look in great shape at all. It’s tempting to play him at his price, but I’m not feeling great about it. I don’t think I can play a fighter with bouncing titties. I’m just going to go with Nascimento based on all that I just said. If he gets a finish, Rodrigo can put up decent scores with 99.7 and 94.8 DK points in his two bouts where this happened.

Serhiy Sidey 8.6k vs. Garrett Armfield 7.6k

This is going to be a very close fight. I like Garrett Armfield as an underdog because of the value, although it’s hard to say if he wins. Sidey probably wins by throwing his jab and following with big shots. He can be taken down and does not use his length well. Armfield has solid offensive take downs and pretty good striking skills. He’s got some power in his hands and will pick up the striking pace as needed. I do think Sidey gets the win here and he’s probably a GPP pivot option.

Prior to his last fight where he beat Brian Kelleher, Cody Gibson has not won a fight in ten years in the UFC. But he can take guys down and his opponent can be taken down. He should be able to take him down and maybe control him. Anheliger has some get-up game and is pretty tough. I don’t know if I will get to Cody although I hope he gets a win…and get back-to-back wins after a decade between his last win streak. Anheliger is a Canadian, so he has that going for him in terms of home crowd advantage. This might be a fade…definitely some lower level shit here.

Jamey-Lyn Horth 8.8k vs. Ivana Petrovic 7.4k

Jamey-Lyn Horth is a high IQ fighter that will adjust to what her opponent is doing. I think she gets a decision win and probably doesn’t score that well. Her price point probably makes her a fade here. Petrovic will want to hold Horth against the cage and control the pace. Horth is big and strong so this will likely be difficult. I don’t really like either of these fighters for DK. 

Good luck, everybody! I look forward to talking about strategy and ways to get different on this slate in Discord. Let’s get it!

11/02 UFC Cheat Sheet: Slate Breakdown

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DaveVR

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