FREE 02/06 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 6-game NBA DFS slate offers a nice mix of game environments, with two matchups standing out above the rest. The early DAL at BOS game (7:30 PM ET) carries the highest total on the slate at 232.0, featuring two efficient offenses in what could be a fast-paced contest. Later in the evening, SAC at POR (10:00 PM ET) comes in just behind with a 230.5 total, offering plenty of late-night hammer potential with two teams that love to push the pace and don’t exactly prioritize defense.

The other games on the slate are lower-scoring and slower-paced on paper, which could make roster construction interesting as you decide whether to load up on the high-total matchups or dig for value elsewhere. With only six games, ownership will likely condense around those top spots, so finding smart pivots could be key to gaining an edge tonight.

Game Environment Analysis

DAL @ BOS (O/U: 232.0, Spread: -11.5)

• Pace: DAL (15th) vs BOS (24th)
• Off Eff: DAL (7th) vs BOS (4th)
• Def Eff: DAL (13th) vs BOS (5th)

HOU @ MIN (O/U: 214.5, Spread: -1.0)

• Pace: HOU (18th) vs MIN (26th)
• Off Eff: HOU (16th) vs MIN (13th)
• Def Eff: HOU (2nd) vs MIN (7th)

ORL @ DEN (O/U: 218.5, Spread: -6.5)

• Pace: ORL (29th) vs DEN (5th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: ORL (29th) vs DEN (3rd)
• Def Eff: ORL (3rd) vs DEN (19th)

GSW @ LAL (O/U: 222.5, Spread: -6.5)

• Pace: GSW (17th) vs LAL (22nd)
• Off Eff: GSW (19th) vs LAL (11th)
• Def Eff: GSW (9th) vs LAL (15th)

SAC @ POR (O/U: 230.5, Spread: 1.0)

• Pace: SAC (11th) vs POR (19th)
• Off Eff: SAC (8th) 🔥 vs POR (26th)
• Def Eff: SAC (21st) vs POR (23rd)

IND @ LAC (O/U: 229.5, Spread: -5.0)

• Pace: IND (8th) vs LAC (20th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: IND (9th) vs LAC (21st)
• Def Eff: IND (20th) vs LAC (4th)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Brandin Podziemski ($4,400)

Brandin Podziemski ($4,400) stands out as one of the best value plays on the slate tonight. Projected for 30.5 DK points in 32 minutes, he offers an impressive 6.9x value with a solid 0.95 FPPM rate. His recent move to the starting lineup has unlocked consistent production, as seen in his last five games where he’s averaged 30+ DK points in games with extended minutes. Coming off a career-high 29-point performance against Utah, Podziemski’s role and confidence are trending upward, and his ability to contribute across multiple categories makes him an appealing option against the Lakers’ fast-paced style of play.

While his projected ownership (38.3%) is high, it feels justified given his price tag and role within Golden State’s rotation. Chalk can be risky, but Podziemski’s combination of strong minutes projection and high Boom% (44%) suggests he has both a safe floor and upside to hit ceiling outcomes in tournaments. The Lakers rank middle-of-the-pack defensively against guards, so this isn’t a matchup to shy away from either. At $4,400, fading him could put you behind the field if he delivers another big game like he did against Utah.

More PG Plays:

• Stephen Curry ($8,200)
• James Harden ($9,000)
• Anfernee Simons ($6,500)

SG - Buddy Hield ($4,200)

Buddy Hield comes in as one of the best value plays on tonight’s slate at just $4,200. His 5.87x value projection and 19.2% optimal lineup rate stand out, especially with a projected 30 minutes against the Lakers. While his 0.82 FPPM isn’t elite, the minutes should provide enough opportunity for him to hit his ceiling, particularly in a game where the Lakers’ fast pace (3rd in the league) can generate additional possessions. The matchup isn’t overly intimidating, and Hield’s ability to stretch the floor with his three-point shooting could be key if this game stays competitive. He’s fresh off a strong performance against Utah (30.8 DK points in 31 minutes), which shows he can deliver at this price point when given extended run.

The main concern here is Hield’s massive 40.5% projected ownership, which makes him one of the chalkiest plays on the slate. While there’s always some risk in following high ownership, this chalk feels fairly justified given his price tag and role tonight. At $4,200, even a modest performance could still pay off in cash games or smaller-field tournaments, but you’ll need him to exceed his projection to gain leverage in larger GPPs. If you’re fading him, consider doing so strategically by pivoting to similarly priced players with lower ownership or building lineups that differentiate elsewhere while still taking advantage of Hield’s value potential.

More SG Plays:

• Norman Powell ($6,900)
• Jaylen Brown ($8,000)
• Anfernee Simons ($6,500)

SF - Norman Powell ($6,900)

Norman Powell is shaping up as one of the more appealing mid-range options on tonight’s slate, and his $6,900 price tag feels justified given his recent production and role. Over his last five games, Powell has averaged 39.4 DK points while logging heavy minutes (35+ in four of those contests). He’s projected for another 35 minutes tonight in a pace-up matchup against Indiana, a team that ranks near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency. With a solid 1.05 FPPM rate and a projection of 36.8 DK points, Powell offers strong value at 5.3x and appears in over 20% of optimal lineups. His ability to fill it up across multiple categories—scoring efficiently while chipping in rebounds, assists, and occasional defensive stats—makes him a reliable option.

The main concern here is Powell’s high ownership (28.6%), which could make him chalky in tournaments. However, this level of exposure seems warranted given his consistent role and favorable game environment against the Pacers’ porous defense. Indiana’s fast pace should boost scoring opportunities for Powell, who has already proven capable of delivering ceiling games when given volume. If you’re comfortable eating some chalk at this price range, Powell projects as one of the better plays on the slate. For GPPs, consider pairing him with lower-owned options elsewhere to differentiate your lineup while still capturing his upside potential.

More SF Plays:

• Jayson Tatum ($9,800)
• Jaylen Brown ($8,000)
• Rui Hachimura ($5,300)

PF - LeBron James ($10,800)

LeBron James comes in at $10,800 tonight against the Warriors, and while his ownership is high at 39.4%, it’s hard to argue against the chalk here. His 1.64 FPPM combined with a projected 36 minutes makes him one of the safest plays on the slate, with a strong value rating of 5.46x and a Boom% of 34.2%. Golden State’s pace (5th in the league) should create plenty of opportunities for LeBron to fill up the stat sheet, especially with his recent form—averaging 25.2 points, 9.3 assists, and 7.3 rebounds since January. Add in his 20.86% optimal lineup rate, and it’s clear he has both a high ceiling and floor tonight.

The game environment is also appealing, as this matchup should be competitive with plenty of possessions to go around. While LeBron’s ownership will likely scare some off in tournaments, he still ranks fifth in Hero GPP rank and offers enough upside to justify eating the chalk in this spot. His recent performance supports that upside too—he just dropped 68 DK points two games ago against the Knicks in a similar high-usage role. If you’re looking for a reliable anchor for your lineup tonight, LeBron checks all the boxes despite his popularity.

More PF Plays:

• Jayson Tatum ($9,800)
• Naz Reid ($6,300)
• Rui Hachimura ($5,300)

C - Ivica Zubac ($7,200)

Ivica Zubac ($7,200) is a strong option tonight in a favorable matchup against the Pacers. Indiana plays at the league’s fastest pace, which should create plenty of extra rebound and scoring opportunities for Zubac, who’s projected to log 32 minutes. With a solid 1.26 FPPM rate and a projection of 40.2 DK points, he offers a solid floor with legitimate upside, as evidenced by his recent 56 DK-point game against San Antonio. The Pacers rank near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency against centers, making this an ideal spot for Zubac to keep producing at an elite level on the boards while contributing efficiently on offense.

The one hesitation here is Zubac’s high ownership at 31.5%, but in this case, it’s chalk that feels warranted given his value (5.6x) and strong role within this game environment. His optimal lineup rate of 19.4% shows he’s not just safe but also capable of hitting a ceiling performance if things break right in this up-tempo matchup. If you’re playing cash games or single-entry GPPs, Zubac fits well as a reliable mid-range center option. However, if you’re looking to differentiate in large-field tournaments, fading him could make sense given his popularity—though you’ll need a clear pivot with similar upside to justify it.

More C Plays:

• Kristaps Porzingis ($7,500)
• Naz Reid ($6,300)
• Nikola Jokic ($12,800)

Good luck today! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!