FREE 02/07 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 6-game NBA slate offers a mix of game environments, but two matchups clearly stand out for DFS purposes. The Bucks face the Hawks at 7:30 PM ET in a game with a massive 243.0 total, making it the highest on the slate and a likely priority for stacking. Right behind it is the Cavaliers taking on the Wizards at 7:00 PM ET, featuring another high total of 239.5. Both games should see plenty of pace and scoring opportunities, which makes targeting key players from these matchups an appealing strategy.

The rest of the slate features lower totals and potentially slower-paced games, so finding value plays or under-the-radar options there will be important to differentiate your lineups. With all games tipping off by 8:00 PM ET, there won’t be much late swap flexibility tonight, so nailing your core plays early is crucial. With that in mind… Our February 07 Starting Five is now LIVE!

Game Environment Analysis

CLE @ WAS (O/U: 239.5, Spread: 17.0)

• Pace: CLE (6th) vs WAS (4th)
• Off Eff: CLE (1st) 🔥 vs WAS (30th)
• Def Eff: CLE (8th) vs WAS (30th) 🎯
  ⚠️ Blowout risk

SAS @ CHA (O/U: 230.5, Spread: 10.0)

• Pace: SAS (11th) vs CHA (21st)
• Off Eff: SAS (16th) vs CHA (28th)
• Def Eff: SAS (16th) vs CHA (15th)

MIL @ ATL (O/U: 243.0, Spread: 5.5)

• Pace: MIL (9th) vs ATL (2nd)
• Off Eff: MIL (12th) vs ATL (22nd)
• Def Eff: MIL (10th) vs ATL (19th)

PHI @ DET (O/U: 228.0, Spread: 4.5)

• Pace: PHI (28th) vs DET (12th)
• Off Eff: PHI (19th) vs DET (18th)
• Def Eff: PHI (22nd) vs DET (12th)

MIA @ BKN (O/U: 210.0, Spread: 5.5)

• Pace: MIA (27th) vs BKN (30th)
• Off Eff: MIA (17th) vs BKN (27th)
• Def Eff: MIA (11th) vs BKN (24th)

TOR @ OKC (O/U: 228.5, Spread: -19.0)

• Pace: TOR (10th) vs OKC (7th)
• Off Eff: TOR (24th) vs OKC (6th) 🔥
• Def Eff: TOR (27th) 🎯 vs OKC (1st)
  ⚠️ Blowout risk

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Carlton Carrington ($3,300)

At $3,300, Carlton Carrington is a clear value play on tonight’s slate, and his 27.1% optimal lineup rate backs that up. He’s projected for 32 minutes against Cleveland, and while the Cavs are a strong defensive unit overall, this game environment sets up well for his role. With Khris Middleton out of the picture and Carrington back in the starting lineup, he delivered a standout 41 DK points in 35 minutes against Brooklyn last game. His 0.78 FPPM isn’t elite, but at this price point and with projected volume, he doesn’t need to be. The Wizards will rely on him as a secondary playmaker alongside their stars, giving him a solid floor with upside if his shot falls.

The ownership (27.4%) is high but justified given his salary and value projection (7.5x). While you’ll need to differentiate elsewhere in tournaments, fading Carrington could leave you chasing too much raw production on a slate where cheap starters with this kind of opportunity are rare. His 42.1% Boom percentage highlights that upside potential if he can replicate even part of his recent performance. Just keep in mind that Cleveland’s slower pace could cap his ceiling slightly compared to faster matchups like Brooklyn or Charlotte earlier this week. Still, Carrington is one of the better salary-saving options available tonight in both cash games and GPPs.

More PG Plays:

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,700)
• Trae Young ($9,600)
• Damian Lillard ($8,700)

SG - Bilal Coulibaly ($5,500)

Bilal Coulibaly ($5,500) is one of the most intriguing mid-range plays on tonight’s slate. Coming off his first career triple-double and averaging 38.1 DK points over his last three games, Coulibaly has been thriving in an expanded role for the Wizards. With a solid 0.94 FPPM and a projection of 30.2 DK points, he offers strong value at 5.49x salary against a Cleveland defense that has struggled to contain wings this season. His recent performances show he can contribute across multiple stat categories, and with a projected 32 minutes tonight, there’s plenty of opportunity for him to hit or exceed his ceiling.

The high ownership (36.7%) is definitely something to consider in tournaments, but it’s not unwarranted given his production and price point. At $5,500, Coulibaly fits well into both cash and GPP builds, especially given his appearance in over 20% of optimal lineups. While he may not be the sneaky play some DFS players crave, fading him could be risky given his current form and matchup upside. If you’re comfortable eating the chalk, he’s one of the better value options on the slate; otherwise, look for lower-owned pivots in the same price range to differentiate your lineup.

More SG Plays:

• Donovan Mitchell ($8,600)
• Gradey Dick ($4,300)
• De’Aaron Fox ($8,500)

SF - Jaylon Tyson ($3,000)

At just $3,000, Jaylon Tyson is one of the most intriguing value plays on the slate. Projected for 17.8 DK points with a solid 5.9x value rating, Tyson has shown flashes of upside in recent games, including a 23.8 DK-point outing against Atlanta just a few games ago. While his per-minute production (0.85 FPPM) is respectable for his price range, the key here is his role and playing time. With Caris LeVert and Isaac Okoro potentially sidelined again, Tyson could see around 20 minutes, making him a viable salary-saving option in tournaments. His Boom% (20.9%) and appearance in 15.1% of optimal lineups further reinforce his potential to exceed expectations.

However, at 24.2% projected ownership, Tyson will be one of the chalkier punt plays on the slate, which raises questions about whether he’s worth eating that level of ownership in GPPs. While his price makes him hard to fade entirely, keep in mind that much of his recent production has come during garbage time or low-leverage situations—like his strong game against Atlanta when the Cavs were already cruising to a blowout win. If this game against Washington stays competitive, there’s a chance Tyson’s minutes and opportunities could shrink slightly. He’s still a great value option but not without risk given his role off the bench and heavy public exposure.

More SF Plays:

• Kyshawn George ($3,800)
• Jalen Williams ($8,000)
• Scottie Barnes ($9,100)

PF - Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,800)

Giannis Antetokounmpo is one of the most expensive plays on the slate at $11,800, but his production potential makes him worth every penny in the right spot. Projected for 59.6 DK points with a stellar 1.7 FPPM rate, he’s a high-floor, high-ceiling option in tonight’s matchup against Atlanta. The Hawks rank middle-of-the-pack defensively, and while they’ve improved overall, they still struggle to contain elite forwards and bigs. With Giannis expected to play around 35 minutes if active, his ability to fill up the stat sheet across all categories makes him an anchor for both cash games and tournaments. His recent performances—four straight games over 60 DK points—highlight his consistency even in tough matchups.

Ownership will be a key factor here as Giannis is projected to be highly rostered at 34.3%. While that level of chalk can sometimes scare off tournament players, it’s hard to argue against it when he appears in over 22% of optimal lineups and carries a strong Boom% of 21.6%. If you’re fading him, you’ll need lower-owned pivots with legitimate upside, which could be risky given his ability to drop slate-breaking numbers. However, keep an eye on the injury report—if Giannis ends up sitting due to calf soreness, Bobby Portis becomes an excellent value play and opens up salary for other stars. If he suits up, though, Giannis remains one of the best plays on the board despite his popularity.

More PF Plays:

• Kyshawn George ($3,800)
• Bam Adebayo ($8,200)
• Evan Mobley ($8,400)

C - Victor Wembanyama ($11,000)

Victor Wembanyama ($11,000) is one of the premier options on tonight’s slate, and for good reason. His 1.68 FPPM is elite, and with a projection of 55.4 DK points in 33 minutes, he offers a strong 5x value despite the hefty price tag. The matchup against Charlotte is enticing as well, given their struggles defending big men and their tendency to allow high-scoring games. Wembanyama has been incredibly consistent, scoring 44+ DK points in each of his last five outings while flashing a ceiling north of 60 DK points. With De’Aaron Fox now in San Antonio, there’s some risk that his usage may dip slightly, but he remains the focal point of the Spurs’ offense and their best source of defensive stats.

At 27.4% projected ownership, Wembanyama will be one of the chalkiest plays on the slate. While that level of ownership might scare some off in tournaments, it feels justified here given his floor-ceiling combination and optimal lineup rate (19.8%). If you’re looking for a safe anchor with upside to build around in cash games or tournaments, he’s worth eating the chalk. However, if you’re seeking leverage in GPPs, pivoting to lower-owned high-upside centers could differentiate your lineup while still keeping exposure to this game environment through other pieces.

More C Plays:

• Joel Embiid ($10,000)
• Bam Adebayo ($8,200)
• Evan Mobley ($8,400)

Good luck tonight! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!