FREE 02/28 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

It’s an exciting 8-game NBA DFS slate tonight, with some standout matchups that demand attention. The action tips off at 7:00 PM ET, but the real fireworks are in the high-total games. OKC at ATL (247.0) and NYK at MEM (244.0) are projected to be the fastest-paced, highest-scoring environments on the slate, making them prime targets for stacking. With those totals, you’ll want exposure to key players in these games, as they could be slate-breakers.

The rest of the slate features a mix of slower matchups and mid-tier totals, so finding value elsewhere will require a more strategic approach. Lineup construction could come down to balancing exposure to these fast-paced games while identifying low-owned plays in less obvious spots. With that in mind… Our February 28 Starting Five is now LIVE!

Game Environment Analysis

DEN @ DET (O/U: 239.0, Spread: 1.0)

• Pace: DEN (5th) vs DET (9th)
• Off Eff: DEN (2nd) vs DET (14th)
• Def Eff: DEN (17th) vs DET (11th)

OKC @ ATL (O/U: 247.0, Spread: 11.0)

• Pace: OKC (10th) vs ATL (2nd)
• Off Eff: OKC (5th) 🔥 vs ATL (20th)
• Def Eff: OKC (1st) vs ATL (19th)

CLE @ BOS (O/U: 233.5, Spread: -1.0)

• Pace: CLE (6th) vs BOS (26th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: CLE (1st) vs BOS (4th)
• Def Eff: CLE (6th) vs BOS (4th)

POR @ BKN (O/U: 220.5, Spread: 2.5)

• Pace: POR (18th) vs BKN (30th)
• Off Eff: POR (26th) vs BKN (27th)
• Def Eff: POR (22nd) vs BKN (20th)

TOR @ CHI (O/U: 232.5, Spread: -2.5)

• Pace: TOR (14th) vs CHI (3rd) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: TOR (25th) vs CHI (16th)
• Def Eff: TOR (24th) vs CHI (26th) 🎯

IND @ MIA (O/U: 224.0, Spread: 3.5)

• Pace: IND (7th) vs MIA (28th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: IND (7th) vs MIA (19th)
• Def Eff: IND (16th) vs MIA (13th)

NYK @ MEM (O/U: 244.0, Spread: -3.5)

• Pace: NYK (24th) vs MEM (1st) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: NYK (3rd) vs MEM (6th) 🔥
• Def Eff: NYK (23rd) vs MEM (8th)

NOP @ PHX (O/U: 230.0, Spread: -9.0)

• Pace: NOP (11th) vs PHX (23rd)
• Off Eff: NOP (24th) vs PHX (9th) 🔥
• Def Eff: NOP (28th) 🎯 vs PHX (27th) 🎯

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Tyus Jones ($3,800)

Tyus Jones is shaping up as one of the best value plays on the slate at just $3,800. With Bradley Beal potentially out again, Jones is expected to start and should see significant minutes (projected for 31.0). His per-minute production (0.92 FPPM) combined with his low salary creates an elite value spot, as he’s projected to return 7.5x value with 28.4 DK points. In his last game against the Pelicans, Jones logged 39 minutes and dropped 45.3 DK points thanks to a strong all-around performance (15 points, 12 assists, and five rebounds). The matchup isn’t overly concerning either, as New Orleans has struggled against opposing guards at times this season.

The main question here is whether his high ownership (34.1%) is worth eating in tournaments. While chalk isn’t always ideal in GPPs, this is a situation where it feels justified given his price and upside. Jones appears in nearly 28% of optimal lineups and carries a strong Boom% of 48%, meaning he’s highly likely to exceed expectations relative to his salary. If Beal remains out, Jones should once again have the opportunity to run the offense for extended minutes in what projects to be a competitive game environment against the Pelicans. At this price point, it’s hard to pass up such a clear path to both value and upside.

More PG Plays:

• Devin Booker ($8,800)
• Jose Alvarado ($5,900)
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,700)

SG - Jordan Hawkins ($4,000)

Jordan Hawkins is shaping up as one of the best value plays on the slate at just $4,000. Projected for 32 minutes against Phoenix, he offers a strong combination of opportunity and efficiency, with a projection of 27 DK points (6.76x value). His 41% Boom Rate and appearance in 25% of optimal lineups underline his upside in tournaments, especially given his ability to contribute across multiple categories. While his recent shooting efficiency has been inconsistent, Hawkins has still managed to post solid fantasy scores in limited minutes, including 24.3 DK points in this same matchup just days ago. The Suns rank middle-of-the-pack defensively against guards, so the environment should allow him plenty of opportunities to produce.

However, Hawkins’ projected ownership of 41.1% makes him one of the chalkiest plays on the slate. While this level of ownership can be justified given his price and role, it’s worth considering how you construct your lineups around him if you’re playing tournaments. He’ll likely be highly rostered in cash games where his floor and value make sense, but fading him in GPPs could create leverage if he underperforms or sees reduced usage alongside New Orleans’ other scorers. Ultimately, Hawkins is a strong play for both formats but requires thoughtful lineup construction to maximize your edge.

More SG Plays:

• Trey Murphy III ($7,900)
• Devin Booker ($8,800)
• Donovan Mitchell ($8,400)

SF - Trey Murphy III ($7,900)

Trey Murphy III checks a lot of boxes tonight at $7,900. His 1.25 FPPM and 36 projected minutes in a fast-paced matchup against Phoenix make him a strong option for both cash games and tournaments. With a projection of 45.1 DK points and a value of 5.71x, he’s one of the most efficient mid-to-high-tier plays on the slate. The Suns have been vulnerable defensively on the wings, which bodes well for Murphy’s ability to rack up points from deep and contribute across multiple categories. His recent performances show consistency with upside, including two games above 40 DK points in his last four outings.

The high ownership (36.8%) is worth noting, but it feels justified given his role and ceiling in this spot. He appears in nearly 25% of optimal lineups, which signals that fading him could be risky unless you’re building contrarian tournament lineups. While he’s coming off a slightly underwhelming game against Phoenix earlier this week (28.5 DK points), his Boom% of 38.3% suggests he’s capable of exceeding value if his shot falls at a higher clip tonight. Overall, Murphy is solid chalk to eat if you’re looking for stability with tournament-winning upside in your builds.

More SF Plays:

• Jayson Tatum ($9,900)
• Jalen Williams ($8,100)
• Michael Porter Jr. ($6,100)

PF - Kevin Durant ($9,100)

Kevin Durant ($9,100) stands out as a strong play tonight against the Pelicans. Projected for 49.3 DK points with a solid 5.4x value, he offers both a high floor and ceiling in this matchup. Durant has been logging heavy minutes (37 per game) and producing at an elite 1.33 FPPM rate. While New Orleans is generally tough defensively, they’ve struggled to contain versatile forwards like Durant, particularly with Zion Williamson often focusing more on offense than defensive intensity. The game environment also works in his favor, as the Suns-Pelicans matchup carries a competitive outlook that should keep Durant heavily involved throughout.

At 20.9% projected ownership, Durant is one of the more popular plays on the slate, but it’s chalk worth eating in this case. His consistent usage alongside Devin Booker ensures he’ll have plenty of opportunities to hit value or exceed it, especially given his ability to contribute across multiple categories (points, rebounds, assists). With a 31.3% boom percentage and appearing in nearly 15% of optimal lineups, he’s not just a safe cash play but also viable for tournaments due to his ceiling potential. Lock him in confidently as one of the best forward options on the board tonight.

More PF Plays:

• Jayson Tatum ($9,900)
• Chet Holmgren ($7,200)
• Evan Mobley ($8,300)

C - Jalen Smith ($3,700)

Jalen Smith is shaping up to be one of the slate’s top value plays at just $3,700. With Nikola Vucevic doubtful, Smith could see a significant uptick in minutes, as he’s projected for 21. His strong 1.2 FPPM production combined with a projection of 25.3 DK points makes him an excellent option for tournaments, where he boasts a solid 35.9% Boom rate and appears in over 21% of optimal lineups. The matchup against Toronto is also favorable, as their frontcourt lacks depth beyond Jakob Poeltl, and Smith has shown he can produce efficiently in limited playing time. At nearly 7x value, he’s hard to ignore.

The main concern here is his expected ownership at 22.2%, which makes him one of the chalkier plays on the slate. However, this chalk feels justified given his price tag and path to extended run if Vucevic sits. While his recent game logs are inconsistent due to limited minutes and a concussion absence, Smith flashed upside earlier this month with DK scores of 20+ points in three of his last five meaningful games. If you’re looking for salary relief without sacrificing upside, Smith is worth locking into your builds despite the higher ownership.

More C Plays:

• Nikola Jokic ($12,200)
• Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,000)
• Chet Holmgren ($7,200)

Good luck tonight! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!