FREE 03/01 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 5-game NBA slate offers a mix of opportunities, with two standout matchups driving much of the DFS appeal. The Spurs-Grizzlies game (8:00 PM ET) boasts a massive 242.5 total, making it the clear top target for high-paced action and potential fantasy fireworks. Right behind it is the Kings-Rockets game (8:00 PM ET) with a solid 231.5 total, offering plenty of value in what should be another fast-paced environment. The remaining games are lower-scoring on paper, so how you approach those could separate your lineup from the field.

With just an hour and a half between the first tip-off (7:00 PM ET) and the last (8:30 PM ET), late swap opportunities will be limited, but that doesn’t mean you can’t get creative. Prioritizing exposure to the high-total games while finding contrarian plays in less obvious spots could be key tonight.

Game Environment Analysis

BKN @ DET (O/U: 215.0, Spread: -12.0)

• Pace: BKN (30th) vs DET (10th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: BKN (27th) vs DET (14th)
• Def Eff: BKN (21st) vs DET (12th)

SAC @ HOU (O/U: 231.5, Spread: -4.5)

• Pace: SAC (13th) vs HOU (19th)
• Off Eff: SAC (9th) vs HOU (19th)
• Def Eff: SAC (19th) vs HOU (2nd)

SAS @ MEM (O/U: 242.5, Spread: -7.5)

• Pace: SAS (12th) vs MEM (1st) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: SAS (18th) vs MEM (6th)
• Def Eff: SAS (15th) vs MEM (8th)

MIL @ DAL (O/U: 228.0, Spread: 3.0)

• Pace: MIL (9th) vs DAL (17th)
• Off Eff: MIL (12th) vs DAL (10th)
• Def Eff: MIL (10th) vs DAL (13th)

GSW @ PHI (O/U: 228.0, Spread: 8.5)

• Pace: GSW (16th) vs PHI (27th)
• Off Eff: GSW (15th) vs PHI (23rd)
• Def Eff: GSW (9th) vs PHI (26th) 🎯

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Damian Lillard ($8,800)

Damian Lillard ($8,800) stands out as a strong play tonight against the Mavericks, offering solid value with his 5.03x projection and appearing in nearly 20% of optimal lineups. While his recent performances have been somewhat inconsistent, he’s still averaging 1.23 fantasy points per minute and is projected to log 36 minutes in a competitive game environment. The Mavericks rank middle of the pack defensively, but they’ve struggled to contain dynamic guards, which plays into Lillard’s strengths as a scorer and playmaker. With a projected 44.26 DK points and a respectable Boom% of 21.36%, he has legitimate upside at this salary.

Ownership sits at 15.4%, slightly above the field average, but not high enough to scare you off in tournaments. Given his ability to stuff the stat sheet, Lillard offers both stability and ceiling potential—key traits for GPPs. While his recent shooting efficiency has been up and down, he’s still heavily involved in Milwaukee’s offense (28+ points in two of his last four games) and should see plenty of usage against Dallas’ backcourt defense. At this price point, Lillard is a great option if you’re looking for balanced exposure without sacrificing upside in your lineup build.

More PG Plays:

• De’Aaron Fox ($8,700)
• Kyrie Irving ($9,200)
• Stephen Curry ($8,900)

SG - Kelly Oubre Jr. ($6,000)

Kelly Oubre Jr. is in an intriguing spot tonight at $6,000 against the Warriors. With a projected 37 minutes and a solid recent run of games, he offers strong value at 5.2x and appears in nearly 22% of optimal lineups. His ability to contribute across multiple categories—highlighted by his 27-point, five-rebound performance against the Knicks—makes him a viable option in both cash games and tournaments. The Warriors’ defensive scheme often struggles against versatile wings, and while Oubre’s 0.84 FPPM isn’t elite, his heavy workload and recent efficiency (53.4% shooting over his last five) boost his floor and ceiling.

The ownership projection of 24.6% is high, but it feels justified given his price point and role on the Sixers right now. While he doesn’t have the highest Boom% (17.2%), his consistent minutes and usage make him a safe yet impactful play in this range. If you’re comfortable eating some chalk, Oubre fits well into lineups where you’re looking for mid-tier stability with upside potential in what could be a competitive game environment against Golden State.

More SG Plays:

• De’Aaron Fox ($8,700)
• Desmond Bane ($7,600)
• Jalen Green ($7,500)

SF - Jimmy Butler ($7,400)

Jimmy Butler ($7,400) comes in as one of the more intriguing options on this slate, projected for 37.6 DK points with a strong 5.1x value. Despite his recent struggles—likely tied to lingering back spasms—Butler remains a solid mid-tier play due to his consistent role and efficiency (1.18 FPPM). The matchup against Philadelphia isn’t ideal, as the 76ers rank among the league’s better defensive teams, but Butler’s ability to contribute across multiple stat categories gives him a relatively stable floor. His Boom% of 23.6% and inclusion in 16% of optimal lineups suggest that he has legitimate upside at this price point, particularly if his minutes approach the low-30s as projected.

However, with ownership expected at 21.1%, Butler is shaping up to be chalky relative to the field average, which raises questions about whether he’s worth locking in for tournaments. While his price tag offers value, there are concerns about his health and recent lackluster performances (sub-26 DK points in two straight games). If you believe he can regain form against a tough Philly defense, he’s a viable play in GPPs given his ceiling and favorable salary. But given the high ownership and potential limitations stemming from his back issues, fading him could provide leverage if you’re willing to take on some risk.

More SF Plays:

• Cameron Johnson ($6,100)
• Amen Thompson ($8,400)
• Paul George ($7,200)

PF - Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,800)

Giannis Antetokounmpo is in a prime spot tonight against the Mavericks, and while his $10,800 salary is steep, the numbers suggest he’s worth every dollar. He’s projected for 57.4 DK points with an elite 1.69 FPPM and carries a strong value rating of 5.3x, making him one of the top plays on the slate. Dallas doesn’t have anyone who can match up with Giannis’ combination of size and athleticism, particularly with Christian Wood and Maxi Kleber likely to see minutes at the five. The Mavericks rank in the middle of the pack defensively against PFs and Cs, but their slower pace could limit some ceiling potential if this game stays methodical. Still, Giannis has hit 50+ DK points in four of his last five games and offers a level of safety few players can match.

The biggest factor here is ownership—Giannis is expected to be rostered by 42% of the field, which is significant chalk for GPPs. However, this feels like justified chalk given his consistent production and tournament-winning upside (32.5% Boom%). He’s also appearing in 20.8% of optimal lineups, reinforcing his viability as a core play even at elevated ownership levels. If you’re looking to differentiate your lineup elsewhere, fading Giannis might not be necessary unless you have conviction in other high-priced stars outperforming him. All signs point to him being a solid anchor for both cash games and tournaments tonight.

More PF Plays:

• Jaren Jackson Jr. ($7,700)
• PJ Washington ($7,200)
• Cameron Johnson ($6,100)

C - Jaren Jackson Jr. ($7,700)

Jaren Jackson Jr. ($7,700) is in a prime spot tonight against the Spurs, a team that has struggled defensively all season. With his ability to rack up blocks and steals (1.9 BPG and 1.0 SPG over his last nine games), JJJ’s 1.29 FPPM gives him a strong floor, while the matchup adds ceiling potential. The Spurs rank near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency and struggle to defend bigs, making this an ideal setup for Jackson to capitalize on his two-way impact. His projection of 40.71 DK points and 5.3x value make him one of the stronger plays at his position, especially given his consistent minutes around 30+ per game.

The biggest question here is whether Jackson’s high ownership (31.5%) is worth eating in tournaments. While it’s chalky, there’s a reason he ranks third in tournament appeal with a Boom% of 26.7% and appearing in over 20% of optimal lineups. His foul trouble risk is always something to monitor, but this matchup against San Antonio should mitigate that concern given their lack of interior threats who draw contact at a high rate. If you’re building cash lineups or leaning into chalkier tournament builds, JJJ fits perfectly—but if you’re fading high ownership entirely, consider pivoting to lower-owned options with similar upside at forward/center spots.

More C Plays:

• PJ Washington ($7,200)
• Alperen Sengun ($8,700)
• Zach Edey ($4,400)

Good luck! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!