FREE 03/03 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 7-game NBA slate brings plenty of intrigue, highlighted by a couple of high-total matchups that should draw plenty of DFS attention. The ATL at MEM game (252.5 total) stands out as the clear top target, with its blistering pace and massive scoring potential. Right behind it is SAC at DAL (232.0 total), where two offensively-minded teams square off in what could be another high-output environment. Both games tip off in the late window, so late swap strategy could play a key role in maximizing your edge tonight.

Elsewhere on the slate, there are slower-paced matchups to navigate, which may present opportunities to find value if others overlook them. The condensed schedule also means fewer time gaps between games, so staying flexible will be crucial as news drops closer to lock.

Game Environment Analysis

POR @ PHI (O/U: 229.5, Spread: -3.0)

• Pace: POR (18th) vs PHI (26th)
• Off Eff: POR (25th) vs PHI (22nd)
• Def Eff: POR (22nd) vs PHI (25th) 🎯

GSW @ CHA (O/U: 228.0, Spread: 13.0)

• Pace: GSW (15th) vs CHA (22nd)
• Off Eff: GSW (15th) vs CHA (29th)
• Def Eff: GSW (9th) vs CHA (15th)

WAS @ MIA (O/U: 218.0, Spread: -8.0)

• Pace: WAS (4th) vs MIA (28th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: WAS (30th) vs MIA (18th)
• Def Eff: WAS (29th) 🎯 vs MIA (13th)

HOU @ OKC (O/U: 228.5, Spread: -10.0)

• Pace: HOU (19th) vs OKC (9th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: HOU (19th) vs OKC (5th)
• Def Eff: HOU (2nd) vs OKC (1st)

ATL @ MEM (O/U: 252.5, Spread: -9.0)

• Pace: ATL (2nd) vs MEM (1st)
• Off Eff: ATL (20th) vs MEM (6th) 🔥
• Def Eff: ATL (20th) vs MEM (8th)

SAC @ DAL (O/U: 232.0, Spread: 2.0)

• Pace: SAC (14th) vs DAL (17th)
• Off Eff: SAC (8th) vs DAL (10th)
• Def Eff: SAC (17th) vs DAL (14th)

DET @ UTA (O/U: 231.5, Spread: 11.0)

• Pace: DET (8th) vs UTA (13th)
• Off Eff: DET (14th) vs UTA (23rd)
• Def Eff: DET (11th) vs UTA (30th) 🎯

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Cade Cunningham ($10,100)

Cade Cunningham comes in at $10,100 tonight, and while the price is steep, the numbers suggest he’s worth serious consideration. He’s projected for 53.2 DK points with a strong 5.3x value and an elite 1.56 FPPM. The matchup against Utah isn’t particularly daunting, as the Jazz rank in the bottom half of the league defensively against point guards this season. With Cunningham expected to play around 34 minutes, his high usage rate and ability to fill up the stat sheet—scoring, assists, and even steals—make him a great option for both cash games and tournaments. His ceiling is evident from recent performances like his 76.3 DK-point outburst against Atlanta last week.

Ownership is on the higher side at nearly 18%, but it’s not unreasonable given his consistency and upside. Chalk like this can be justified when a player has a high optimal percentage (17.2%) and a solid Boom% (28.1%). While there’s some risk tied to his occasional shooting inefficiencies (as seen recently against Denver), Cunningham’s role as Detroit’s offensive engine keeps his floor intact. If you’re building around stars tonight, Cade offers one of the safer paths to big production with legitimate upside in tournaments.

More PG Plays:

• Trae Young ($9,600)
• Kyrie Irving ($9,500)
• Tyrese Maxey ($9,000)

SG - Malik Beasley ($5,000)

Malik Beasley is shaping up as one of the best mid-range value plays on tonight’s slate at just $5,000. With a projection of 30.9 DK points and an impressive 6.18x value, he’s hard to ignore in this matchup against the Jazz. Beasley has been efficient lately, averaging 1.07 FPPM and putting up ceiling performances like his 42.3 DK points against Boston just a few games ago. Utah ranks middle of the pack defensively, but their perimeter defense has been inconsistent, which plays directly into Beasley’s three-point-heavy scoring profile (he’s attempted at least eight threes in four of his last five games). With his minutes trending around 29 per game and Detroit leaning on him for offensive production, he’s in a great spot to exceed value tonight.

The major factor here is ownership—Beasley is projected to be rostered by over 42% of the field, making him one of the chalkiest options on the slate. While that level of popularity might make some DFS players hesitant, it feels justified given his combination of price, role, and efficiency metrics (20.52% optimal lineup rate and a strong 34.8% boom percentage). If you’re playing cash games or smaller-field contests, he’s tough to fade given how much salary flexibility he provides while offering legitimate upside. In GPPs, however, you’ll need to weigh whether eating this chalk fits your build or if pivoting to lower-owned options with similar ceilings makes more sense for leverage purposes. Either way, Beasley is firmly in play across all formats tonight.

More SG Plays:

• Desmond Bane ($7,600)
• Shaedon Sharpe ($6,200)
• Dyson Daniels ($6,800)

SF - Naji Marshall ($5,400)

At $5,400, Naji Marshall projects as one of the best value plays on the slate, and his 31.6 DK-point projection paired with a 5.85x value rating backs that up. Sacramento’s fast-paced style (4th in pace) creates plenty of opportunities for opposing wings, and Marshall’s ability to contribute across multiple categories makes him well-suited for this matchup. His 0.99 FPPM is solid at this price point, and he’s projected to play 32 minutes, giving him ample time to rack up points, rebounds, and assists in what should be a high-scoring environment. Additionally, his Boom% of 31.1% suggests he has legitimate upside for tournaments.

The biggest concern is his ownership, which sits at a hefty 30.4%. While that chalk may scare some off in GPPs, it’s not entirely unjustified given his strong projections and role in this game. However, recent performances highlight some volatility—he posted just 22-25 DK points in three of his last four games despite playing decent minutes. If you’re looking for leverage in tournaments, fading him could make sense if you believe those struggles will continue or if you think he’ll struggle to hit ceiling outcomes again. But if you’re prioritizing value and floor in cash games or single-entry contests, Marshall fits the build perfectly tonight.

More SF Plays:

• Deni Avdija ($6,700)
• Shaedon Sharpe ($6,200)
• Paul George ($7,500)

PF - Bam Adebayo ($8,400)

Bam Adebayo is in a strong spot tonight against Washington, and his $8,400 price tag offers solid value given his consistent production. Projected for 43.3 DK points with a 5.2x value rating, Bam’s ability to contribute across multiple categories makes him a reliable option in both cash games and tournaments. The Wizards rank poorly defensively, particularly in the frontcourt, which should give Adebayo plenty of opportunities to exploit mismatches. His 1.27 FPPM rate paired with a projected 34 minutes on the floor provides a high floor with legitimate upside, as evidenced by his recent performances where he’s topped 40 DK points in back-to-back games.

At 29% projected ownership, Bam is one of the chalkier plays on the slate, but it’s hard to argue against it given his consistency and favorable matchup. While he’s not likely to fly under the radar in tournaments, his Boom% of 23.2% and appearance in nearly 16% of optimal lineups suggest that he’s worth eating the chalk in this spot. If you’re looking to differentiate elsewhere, Bam can still anchor your lineup without sacrificing upside or stability—especially in a game environment where Miami will need his production to keep pace offensively.

More PF Plays:

• Jaren Jackson Jr. ($8,000)
• Deni Avdija ($6,700)
• Paul George ($7,500)

C - Jonas Valanciunas ($5,400)

Jonas Valanciunas ($5,400) is shaping up to be one of the strongest value plays on the slate. At just 1.23 FPPM and a projection of 35.5 DK points in 29 minutes, he offers a massive 6.6x value at his price tag. The matchup against Dallas is favorable, as the Mavericks rank near the bottom of the league in rebounding and interior defense, making this an ideal spot for a high-usage center like Valanciunas to thrive. With Domantas Sabonis potentially out or limited, Valanciunas should see an expanded role, as evidenced by his recent 49 DK-point performance when thrust into extended minutes. His ability to contribute across multiple categories (points, rebounds, blocks, steals) adds upside that makes him highly appealing in both cash games and tournaments.

The only real concern here is his projected ownership at 39.5%, which makes him one of the chalkiest plays on the slate. While this level of ownership may make him less attractive for GPPs if you’re looking to differentiate your lineup, it’s hard to argue against his optimal percentage (32.5%) and boom rate (45.4%). Ultimately, he’s priced too low for his ceiling in this spot, and fading him comes with significant risk given how often he appears in optimal lineups. If you’re comfortable eating chalk in a strong value play with clear upside, Valanciunas should be a priority tonight.

More C Plays:

• Jalen Duren ($6,900)
• Jaren Jackson Jr. ($8,000)
• Onyeka Okongwu ($6,100)

Good luck! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!