FREE 03/05 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 7-game NBA slate offers plenty of intrigue, with two standout matchups that should catch your attention for DFS. The late-night OKC at MEM game (9:30 PM ET) boasts a massive 253.5 total, making it the clear priority for targeting high-paced, fantasy-friendly action. Right behind it is SAC at DEN (9:00 PM ET) with a 235.5 total, featuring two efficient offenses and plenty of star power to consider. These games set up as key spots to build around, especially with their late start times offering some flexibility for late swap strategies.

The rest of the slate has a mix of slower-paced matchups and middling totals, so being selective will be important. With only seven games on the board, ownership could condense around those high-total environments, but that doesn’t mean you can’t find value elsewhere. Identifying under-the-radar plays in less popular games or leveraging late news could give you an edge. Prioritize exposure to those high-scoring matchups while keeping an eye on ways to differentiate—it’s all about finding the right balance tonight.

Game Environment Analysis

POR @ BOS (O/U: 224.0, Spread: -9.0)

• Pace: POR (18th) vs BOS (26th)
• Off Eff: POR (25th) vs BOS (3rd) 🔥
• Def Eff: POR (21st) vs BOS (4th)

MIA @ CLE (O/U: 222.0, Spread: -12.0)

• Pace: MIA (28th) vs CLE (6th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: MIA (18th) vs CLE (1st) 🔥
• Def Eff: MIA (13th) vs CLE (6th)

UTA @ WAS (O/U: 231.5, Spread: -5.0)

• Pace: UTA (13th) vs WAS (4th)
• Off Eff: UTA (23rd) vs WAS (30th)
• Def Eff: UTA (30th) 🎯 vs WAS (29th) 🎯

MIN @ CHA (O/U: 226.0, Spread: 8.0)

• Pace: MIN (24th) vs CHA (21st)
• Off Eff: MIN (13th) vs CHA (29th)
• Def Eff: MIN (7th) vs CHA (18th)

DAL @ MIL (O/U: 225.0, Spread: -11.0)

• Pace: DAL (17th) vs MIL (8th)
• Off Eff: DAL (11th) vs MIL (12th)
• Def Eff: DAL (14th) vs MIL (11th)

SAC @ DEN (O/U: 235.5, Spread: -6.0)

• Pace: SAC (15th) vs DEN (5th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: SAC (8th) vs DEN (2nd) 🔥
• Def Eff: SAC (15th) vs DEN (16th)

OKC @ MEM (O/U: 253.5, Spread: 8.0)

• Pace: OKC (9th) vs MEM (1st)
• Off Eff: OKC (5th) vs MEM (6th)
• Def Eff: OKC (1st) vs MEM (9th)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Spencer Dinwiddie ($5,100)

At $5,100, Spencer Dinwiddie stands out as a strong value play tonight against Milwaukee. His projected 32.1 DK points give him an impressive 6.3x value, and he’s appearing in over 26% of optimal lineups. With Kyrie Irving sidelined, Dinwiddie should see an expanded role, particularly as a facilitator, which boosts his floor given his 0.97 FPPM production. The Bucks are a tough defensive matchup overall, but their backcourt defense has been vulnerable at times, ranking middle of the pack in DvP against guards this season. Dinwiddie is projected for 33 minutes, and while his recent shooting struggles (2-of-12 FG last game) might concern some, the increased opportunity at this price tag makes him hard to overlook.

However, it’s worth noting that Dinwiddie comes with high ownership at 25.7%, meaning he’ll be chalky in tournaments. While that level of popularity might limit your leverage potential in GPPs, it’s chalk that feels justified given his combination of price point and projected role without Kyrie on the floor. If you’re playing cash games or single-entry contests, he’s a solid building block for roster construction. For GPPs, consider pairing him with lower-owned plays to differentiate your lineup while still capturing his upside in what could be a fast-paced game environment against Milwaukee.

More PG Plays:

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,800)
• Keon Ellis ($4,100)
• Isaiah Collier ($6,300)

SG - Anthony Edwards ($9,300)

Anthony Edwards ($9,300) is in a strong spot tonight against the Hornets, who rank near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency and struggle to contain shooting guards. Edwards’ 1.39 FPPM and projected 35 minutes give him a solid floor, and his 5.23x value projection makes him one of the best options in this salary range. While his recent game log has been inconsistent due to some nagging injuries, he showcased his upside with a massive 67.3 DK-point outing against Phoenix just two games ago. This matchup offers plenty of scoring opportunities, as Charlotte’s defensive weaknesses align perfectly with Edwards’ high-usage role in Minnesota’s offense.

At nearly 30% projected ownership, Edwards will be chalky, but it’s chalk that feels justified given his combination of ceiling and matchup. His 25.4% Boom Rate and appearance in 18.4% of optimal lineups further reinforce his viability in both cash games and tournaments despite the heavy ownership. If you’re playing large-field GPPs, consider pairing him with lower-owned plays to differentiate your lineup while still leveraging his potential for a big night. Overall, Edwards is a strong play with justifiable popularity on this slate.

More SG Plays:

• Keon Ellis ($4,100)
• Zach LaVine ($7,900)
• Jaylen Brown ($8,000)

SF - Naji Marshall ($5,900)

Naji Marshall ($5,900) is shaping up as one of the most intriguing mid-range plays on tonight’s slate, and it’s easy to see why. Projected for 35.1 DK points in 32 minutes, he offers a strong value at nearly 6x his salary with an impressive 34.6% Boom Rate. With Kyrie Irving sidelined, Marshall has stepped into a larger role for Dallas, and he’s been productive across multiple stat categories. His ability to contribute as a scorer, rebounder, and playmaker gives him a solid floor, while his 1.1 FPPM output hints at legitimate upside in this matchup against Milwaukee.

That said, Marshall’s projected ownership of 30.3% makes him one of the chalkier options on the slate. While his metrics suggest the chalk is warranted—he ranks second overall in Tournament Rank and appears in nearly 19% of optimal lineups—it’s worth considering whether he fits your tournament strategy. If you’re comfortable eating the chalk, Marshall offers excellent value in a game where Dallas will need all hands on deck to keep pace with Milwaukee’s potent offense. However, if you’re looking to differentiate your lineup in GPPs, pivoting off such high ownership could create leverage given his recent inconsistency as a shooter (e.g., just 1-for-11 from the field vs. Charlotte).

More SF Plays:

• Jayson Tatum ($10,000)
• Jalen Williams ($8,200)
• Zach LaVine ($7,900)

PF - Justin Champagnie ($3,900)

Justin Champagnie comes in as one of the top value plays on tonight’s slate at just $3,900. With a projection of 25.9 DK points and a strong 1.04 FPPM, he offers an impressive 6.6x value against a Utah team that ranks middle-of-the-pack defensively. Champagnie is expected to play around 25 minutes, and his ability to contribute across multiple stat categories—highlighted by his recent 33.5 DK-point outing against Charlotte—makes him an intriguing option in this price range. The Wizards’ willingness to give him a four-year deal speaks to their confidence in his role moving forward, and with Washington’s frontcourt lacking depth, he should have plenty of opportunities to produce.

At 19.4% projected ownership, Champagnie is chalky for tournaments but not without reason. His Boom% of 41.7% and appearance in 21.8% of optimal lineups suggest that he’s more than capable of exceeding value in this spot. While the high ownership limits his leverage appeal, it seems justified given his salary and production potential in this matchup. If you’re looking for salary relief to fit higher-priced studs into your lineup, Champagnie makes for a solid play who won’t likely sink your lineup even if he doesn’t hit his ceiling.

More PF Plays:

• Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,000)
• Julius Randle ($6,500)
• Jayson Tatum ($10,000)

C - Julius Randle ($6,500)

At $6,500, Julius Randle stands out as one of the best value plays on the slate. Projected for 37.75 DK points with a 5.81x value and a strong 34.1% boom rate, he’s priced too low for his upside in this matchup against Charlotte. The Hornets rank near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency and struggle to contain opposing big men, making this a prime spot for Randle to capitalize. With Rudy Gobert still sidelined, Randle should continue seeing solid minutes (projected at 32) and will be relied upon as a key contributor for Minnesota’s frontcourt.

The main concern here is ownership, as Randle is projected to appear in over 20% of lineups, making him one of the chalkier plays on the slate. That said, this feels like justified chalk given his combination of price point and opportunity in an exploitable matchup. His recent performances—33 and 32 DK points in his last two games—show he’s capable of exceeding value even without ceiling-level production. If you’re looking for a mid-range play that fits both cash games and tournaments, Randle checks all the boxes tonight.

More C Plays:

• Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,000)
• Nikola Jokic ($12,200)
• Kyle Filipowski ($5,500)

Good luck! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!