FREE 03/06 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 6-game slate offers a mix of game environments, but two matchups stand out for DFS purposes. The highest total on the board is IND at ATL (248.5) at 7:30 PM ET, which should feature plenty of pace and minimal defense, making it a prime spot to target. Not far behind is HOU at NOP (231.5) at 8:00 PM ET, another appealing matchup with solid scoring potential and key players in favorable spots.

The rest of the slate leans toward slower-paced, lower-total games, so how you approach roster construction will likely hinge on those two high-total contests. Whether you’re stacking IND-ATL or picking your spots from HOU-NOP, getting exposure to the right pieces in these games could be crucial. With a start-to-finish window from 7:00 PM ET to 10:00 PM ET, there’s also some room for late swap strategy if things don’t go as planned early. Let’s see how it plays out!

Game Environment Analysis

CHI @ ORL (O/U: 217.5, Spread: -7.5)

• Pace: CHI (3rd) vs ORL (29th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: CHI (17th) vs ORL (28th)
• Def Eff: CHI (25th) 🎯 vs ORL (2nd)

IND @ ATL (O/U: 248.5, Spread: 3.0)

• Pace: IND (10th) vs ATL (2nd)
• Off Eff: IND (7th) 🔥 vs ATL (19th)
• Def Eff: IND (17th) vs ATL (20th)

PHI @ BOS (O/U: 218.0, Spread: -13.5)

• Pace: PHI (27th) vs BOS (26th)
• Off Eff: PHI (22nd) vs BOS (3rd) 🔥
• Def Eff: PHI (26th) 🎯 vs BOS (4th)

GSW @ BKN (O/U: 223.0, Spread: 11.0)

• Pace: GSW (14th) vs BKN (30th)
• Off Eff: GSW (15th) vs BKN (27th)
• Def Eff: GSW (8th) vs BKN (18th)

HOU @ NOP (O/U: 231.5, Spread: 4.5)

• Pace: HOU (19th) vs NOP (13th)
• Off Eff: HOU (21st) vs NOP (24th)
• Def Eff: HOU (3rd) vs NOP (28th) 🎯

NYK @ LAL (O/U: 231.0, Spread: -3.0)

• Pace: NYK (25th) vs LAL (21st)
• Off Eff: NYK (4th) vs LAL (10th) 🔥
• Def Eff: NYK (22nd) vs LAL (12th)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Payton Pritchard ($5,500)

Payton Pritchard stands out as one of the top value plays on this slate at $5,500. Projected for 34.5 DK points with a strong 6.3x value, he’s in a great spot against Philadelphia, especially given his recent form and role within Boston’s rotation. With a solid 1.05 FPPM and a projected 33 minutes of court time, Pritchard has both the opportunity and efficiency to deliver for DFS lineups tonight. His 41.5% boom rate and appearance in 36.9% of optimal lineups further reinforce his upside, making him an appealing option even at elevated ownership.

Speaking of ownership, Pritchard is expected to be rostered by 24.4% of the field—a high number but one that seems justified given his combination of price, projection, and recent performance. While chalky plays can sometimes be concerning in tournaments, Pritchard’s ceiling is undeniable after his recent career-high performance (69.5 DK points) and consistent ability to hit value when given minutes. If you’re looking for stability with upside in this mid-range salary tier, Pritchard is tough to fade despite the popularity.

More PG Plays:

• Luka Doncic ($11,200)
• Quentin Grimes ($6,100)
• Derrick White ($7,100)

SG - Quentin Grimes ($6,100)

Quentin Grimes ($6,100) is in an intriguing spot tonight against Boston. With a projection of 34.88 DK points and a strong value rating of 5.72x, he’s clearly underpriced for his current role and recent production. Over his last three games, Grimes has averaged 38 minutes per game and showcased his scoring upside with performances like the 44-point explosion against Golden State and a solid 43.3 DK points against Minnesota. Boston’s defense poses a challenge, but with Tyrese Maxey and Paul George potentially out or limited, Grimes will likely remain heavily involved in Philadelphia’s offense. His near-30% Boom Rate and appearance in over 21% of optimal lineups suggest he has legitimate tournament-winning upside at this price point.

At 17.4% projected ownership, Grimes will be one of the more popular mid-range options on the slate. While that level of ownership might scare some off in tournaments, it seems justified given his role, minutes security, and ability to deliver ceiling games even in tough matchups. If you’re looking for leverage elsewhere, fading him could make sense in larger-field GPPs; however, it’s hard to ignore how well he fits into both cash lineups and smaller-field contests where chalkier plays are more palatable. Grimes offers the perfect mix of value and upside to anchor your guard spots tonight without breaking the bank.

More SG Plays:

• Derrick White ($7,100)
• Kelly Oubre Jr. ($6,200)
• Jalen Green ($7,300)

SF - Jayson Tatum ($10,100)

Jayson Tatum ($10,100) presents a strong case as one of the top spend-up options on tonight’s slate despite his questionable status. He’s projected for 52.8 DraftKings points with an impressive 5.2x value and ranks second in tournament upside with a 30.1% Boom rate. The matchup against Philadelphia is challenging, but Tatum has consistently shown he can produce in tough spots, as evidenced by his monster 87.5 DK-point performance against Cleveland just a week ago. With Jaylen Brown and Al Horford already ruled out, Tatum will carry an even heavier offensive load if he suits up, further solidifying his ceiling potential in what should be a competitive game.

At 25.7% projected ownership, Tatum is chalky but likely worth it given his optimal lineup appearance rate of 25.9%. This suggests the field is appropriately valuing him relative to his upside and floor combination. While Philly’s defense is solid, they struggle more against wings than interior players, which plays into Tatum’s strengths as a versatile scorer and rebounder. If you’re fading him in tournaments, make sure you have a clear pivot strategy because fading this type of usage without leveraging elsewhere could leave you chasing the field all night. Keep an eye on his injury status leading up to lock—if he’s ruled out late, it could create massive value opportunities elsewhere on Boston’s roster.

More SF Plays:

• Franz Wagner ($8,600)
• LeBron James ($10,500)
• Kelly Oubre Jr. ($6,200)

PF - Paolo Banchero ($8,900)

Paolo Banchero is one of the top plays on tonight’s slate, and it’s easy to see why. At $8,900, he offers strong value with a 5.4x projection and a stellar 1.35 FPPM rate in a matchup against Chicago. The Bulls rank middle of the pack defensively, but they’ve struggled to contain versatile forwards like Banchero who can score at all three levels. With Orlando relying heavily on him for both scoring and playmaking, his 35+ minutes projection makes him a safe bet to hit his ceiling. He’s also coming off some massive performances, including a 73.5 DK-point outing just two games ago where he showcased his ability to rack up points across multiple categories.

The main concern here is ownership—Banchero is projected at 40% ownership, which makes him the chalkiest player on the slate. However, this chalk feels justified given his combination of floor, ceiling, and role in Orlando’s offense. He also appears in over 20% of optimal lineups, further cementing his status as an elite option tonight. If you’re playing cash games or single-entry contests, Banchero is tough to fade given his consistency and upside. In tournaments, you could consider differentiating elsewhere if you want leverage, but fading him entirely could be risky given how well he projects relative to other high-priced options at power forward.

More PF Plays:

• Pascal Siakam ($7,500)
• LeBron James ($10,500)
• Sam Hauser ($3,800)

C - Andre Drummond ($5,200)

Andre Drummond ($5,200) is shaping up as a solid mid-range center option tonight, especially given his recent uptick in minutes and production. With Joel Embiid sidelined, Drummond has stepped into an expanded role and delivered strong results, including a massive 55 DK point performance against Portland just two games ago. He’s projected for 26 minutes tonight against Boston, and with his 1.1 FPPM rate, that workload should translate into a solid fantasy outing. The Celtics are a tough matchup overall, but they’re middle-of-the-pack against centers defensively, and Drummond’s ability to rack up rebounds and second-chance opportunities makes him less matchup-dependent than most.

At 14% projected ownership, Drummond is moderately chalky but not overwhelmingly so. His Boom% (29.3%) and Optimal% (21.6%) suggest he’s a strong value at this price point, offering 5.5x return potential on DraftKings. While he won’t fly under the radar in tournaments, his ceiling combined with his reasonable salary makes him a viable GPP play even at field-average ownership levels. If you’re looking for a cost-effective center who can fill up the stat sheet with points and boards, Drummond is firmly in play tonight.

More C Plays:

• Alperen Sengun ($9,400)
• Luke Kornet ($4,400)
• Onyeka Okongwu ($6,400)

Good luck tonight! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!