FREE 03/17 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

We’ve got a loaded 10-game NBA slate tonight, tipping off at 7:30 PM ET and running all the way through the late-night hammer at 10:30 PM ET. Two games stand out from a DFS perspective with massive totals: CHI at UTA (240.5) at 9:00 PM ET and DEN at GSW (238.5) at 10:00 PM ET. Both matchups feature high-paced teams and plenty of scoring upside, making them key spots to target. With so many games on the board, there’s no shortage of viable plays, but narrowing your focus on these environments could pay off.

The staggered start times also make late swap a big factor tonight, especially with those high-total games coming later in the evening. If you’re building lineups, consider leaving yourself some flexibility to react as news or ownership trends shift throughout the night. It’s a deep slate with plenty of ways to approach roster construction, so whether you’re stacking late games or spreading exposure across multiple matchups, there are paths to differentiate while still capitalizing on the best game environments. Let’s get into it!

Game Environment Analysis

MIA @ NYK (O/U: 209.0, Spread: -7.0)

• Pace: MIA (29th) vs NYK (25th)
• Off Eff: MIA (22nd) vs NYK (5th)
• Def Eff: MIA (13th) vs NYK (14th)

PHI @ HOU (O/U: 224.5, Spread: -16.5)

• Pace: PHI (26th) vs HOU (19th)
• Off Eff: PHI (21st) vs HOU (19th)
• Def Eff: PHI (26th) 🎯 vs HOU (2nd)
  ⚠️ Blowout risk

IND @ MIN (O/U: 228.5, Spread: -8.5)

• Pace: IND (10th) vs MIN (23rd) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: IND (8th) vs MIN (11th)
• Def Eff: IND (15th) vs MIN (7th)

DET @ NOP (O/U: 234.5, Spread: 6.5)

• Pace: DET (5th) vs NOP (14th)
• Off Eff: DET (16th) vs NOP (24th)
• Def Eff: DET (10th) vs NOP (29th) 🎯

CHI @ UTA (O/U: 240.5, Spread: 5.5)

• Pace: CHI (3rd) vs UTA (8th)
• Off Eff: CHI (18th) vs UTA (23rd)
• Def Eff: CHI (24th) vs UTA (30th) 🎯

DEN @ GSW (O/U: 238.5, Spread: -4.5)

• Pace: DEN (6th) vs GSW (16th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: DEN (2nd) vs GSW (15th)
• Def Eff: DEN (23rd) vs GSW (8th)

TOR @ PHX (O/U: 226.0, Spread: -8.5)

• Pace: TOR (13th) vs PHX (24th)
• Off Eff: TOR (25th) vs PHX (7th)
• Def Eff: TOR (16th) vs PHX (27th) 🎯

WAS @ POR (O/U: 231.5, Spread: -6.0)

• Pace: WAS (4th) vs POR (18th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: WAS (30th) vs POR (26th)
• Def Eff: WAS (28th) 🎯 vs POR (19th)

MEM @ SAC (O/U: 237.5, Spread: -2.5)

• Pace: MEM (1st) vs SAC (17th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: MEM (6th) 🔥 vs SAC (9th)
• Def Eff: MEM (9th) vs SAC (21st)

SAS @ LAL (O/U: 230.0, Spread: -9.5)

• Pace: SAS (12th) vs LAL (21st)
• Off Eff: SAS (14th) vs LAL (10th) 🔥
• Def Eff: SAS (25th) 🎯 vs LAL (12th)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Cade Cunningham ($9,800)

Cade Cunningham is in a strong spot tonight against the Pelicans, and his $9,800 salary doesn’t feel prohibitive given his recent form and the numbers backing him. With a 1.51 FPPM rate and projected for 36 minutes, Cunningham’s ceiling is firmly in play, especially in a game where Detroit may need him to shoulder the load offensively. The Pelicans are a middling defensive team against point guards, and Cunningham’s ability to stuff the stat sheet—double-digit assists in two of his last three games—gives him multiple paths to hitting value. His Boom% of 35.8% is one of the highest on the slate, making him an appealing option even at high ownership.

Speaking of ownership, Cunningham’s 34.4% projected rate means he’ll be popular, but it feels justified given his role and consistency. He’s appeared in 20.1% of optimal lineups, which supports his viability as a foundational piece for both cash games and tournaments. While there’s some risk with his inefficiency (5-for-18 shooting last game), his usage remains elite, and he’s shown an ability to rack up points at the free-throw line when his shot isn’t falling (20-for-21 FT against Washington). Overall, Cunningham offers both a solid floor and slate-breaking upside tonight, making him worth eating the chalk in most builds.

More PG Plays:

• Luka Doncic ($12,000)
• Scotty Pippen Jr. ($4,700)
• Tre Jones ($5,900)

SG - Coby White ($7,800)

Coby White is shaping up as one of the stronger plays on this slate at $7,800. He’s projected for 44.8 DK points and offers solid value at 5.75x his salary, which is impressive given his elevated price tag. With Lonzo Ball out and Josh Giddey unlikely to play, White should continue to benefit from increased usage in a favorable matchup against Utah. Over his last five games, he’s averaging 33+ minutes while scoring at least 21 points in each contest, including a ceiling game of 58.8 DK points against Orlando. His ability to contribute across multiple categories—like the seven rebounds and four assists he posted in two of his last three games—gives him a solid floor with clear upside.

The main concern here is ownership, as White is expected to be rostered by 26.7% of the field, making him one of the chalkier options tonight. However, the chalk seems warranted given his consistent production (1.24 FPPM) and strong role within Chicago’s offense right now. Utah ranks in the bottom half of the league defensively and struggles against scoring guards like White, so this matchup only enhances his appeal. While you’ll need to differentiate elsewhere in tournaments, White’s optimal lineup percentage (17.8%) suggests he’s worth eating the chalk if you’re looking for a reliable mid-to-high-priced option with legitimate ceiling potential.

More SG Plays:

• Kevin Huerter ($5,200)
• Anthony Edwards ($9,300)
• Anfernee Simons ($7,100)

SF - Kevin Huerter ($5,200)

Kevin Huerter ($5,200) stands out as a strong value play on tonight’s slate, projecting for 31.01 DK points with an impressive 5.96x value. He’s locked into a starting role and should see around 32 minutes in a favorable matchup against the Jazz, who rank in the bottom third of the league in defensive efficiency against opposing wings. With a solid 0.97 FPPM rate and a Boom% of 30.07%, Huerter has clear upside, especially at this price point. His ability to contribute across multiple categories—highlighted by his recent nine-rebound performance—gives him a reliable floor while keeping his ceiling intact for tournaments.

The main concern here is his ownership, which sits at 22.1%, making him one of the chalkier options on the slate. However, given his role, matchup, and price tag, this feels like justified chalk rather than someone to fade outright. At just $5,200, he provides significant salary relief without sacrificing upside, and his appearance in 12.84% of optimal lineups supports that he’s more than just a popular play—he’s also highly viable for both cash games and GPPs. If you’re comfortable eating some chalk in this spot, Huerter is an excellent mid-range option to anchor your lineups tonight.

More SF Plays:

• Deni Avdija ($7,100)
• Jimmy Butler ($7,700)
• Justin Champagnie ($5,400)

PF - Draymond Green ($5,900)

Draymond Green ($5,900) stands out as one of the best mid-range options on tonight’s slate, and his DFS profile backs it up. With a strong projection of 34.33 DK points and an excellent 5.82x value, Green offers both stability and upside in a matchup against Denver. His 1.07 FPPM production should hold steady with his projected 32 minutes, and he’s been stuffing the stat sheet post-All-Star break with averages of 11.7 points, 7.4 rebounds, 6.9 assists, and 1.6 steals per game. Denver isn’t a lockdown defensive team against versatile forwards like Green, and Golden State will need his all-around contributions to keep pace with Nikola Jokic and company.

At 16.4% projected ownership, Green will be popular but not overly chalky for tournaments given his slate-leading tournament rank (1st) and strong Boom% (30.24%). The ownership feels justified here—he’s hitting optimal lineups at nearly a 20% clip, which suggests he has real upside for his price tag in this spot. While he’s not a big scorer by nature, his ability to contribute across multiple categories gives him a high floor with ceiling potential if the game stays competitive or if he racks up defensive stats like he did against Detroit earlier this week (3 steals, 1 block). At $5,900, he’s an efficient way to get exposure to this game without breaking the bank.

More PF Plays:

• Deni Avdija ($7,100)
• Justin Champagnie ($5,400)
• Jaren Jackson Jr. ($8,400)

C - Jalen Duren ($6,800)

Jalen Duren is shaping up as one of the stronger mid-range center options on tonight’s slate at $6,800. His combination of consistent production and strong per-minute efficiency (1.32 FPPM) makes him a solid play in both cash games and tournaments. With a projection of 38.2 DK points and a value rating of 5.6x, Duren has proven he can deliver in this price range, particularly against weaker frontcourts like New Orleans’. The Pelicans rank in the bottom half of the league in rebounding rate, which sets up well for Duren’s ability to dominate the glass—he’s tallied double-doubles in three of his last five games, including two performances over 39 DK points.

The main concern here is his ownership, projected at 18.5%, which is relatively high for tournaments. However, that chalk feels justified given his steady role (around 29 minutes per game), elite rebounding ability, and matchup upside against Jonas Valančiūnas, who isn’t known for his defensive prowess. While he may not be a contrarian play, Duren’s ceiling (28.7% Boom%) and appearance in 17.4% of optimal lineups suggest he’s worth eating the chalk in this spot if you’re prioritizing stability with upside at center. If you’re looking to differentiate your lineup elsewhere, Duren provides a reliable foundation without breaking the bank.

More C Plays:

• Nikola Jokic ($13,000)
• Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,000)
• Orlando Robinson ($5,000)

Good luck! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!