FREE 1/28 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 4-game NBA slate may be short, but it offers plenty to dissect for DFS. The action tips off at 7:30 PM ET, but the real fireworks come in the late window with two high-total matchups: Milwaukee at Portland (229.0) and Utah at Golden State (228.0). Both games project to be fast-paced and competitive, making them prime targets for stacking opportunities. With fewer games on the schedule, ownership will likely condense around these spots, so finding the right balance of chalk and leverage will be key.

Smaller slates like this often reward sharp roster construction and late-game pivots, especially with both high-total matchups tipping off at 10:00 PM ET. Keeping flexibility in your lineup for potential news or game flow adjustments could give you an edge over the field. With that in mind… Our January 28 Starting Five is now LIVE!

Game Environment Analysis

HOU @ ATL (O/U: 226.5, Spread: 6.0)

• Pace: HOU (18th) vs ATL (2nd) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: HOU (13th) vs ATL (21st)
• Def Eff: HOU (4th) vs ATL (15th)

LAL @ PHI (O/U: 218.0, Spread: 4.5)

• Pace: LAL (22nd) vs PHI (28th)
• Off Eff: LAL (12th) vs PHI (23rd)
• Def Eff: LAL (20th) vs PHI (22nd)

UTA @ GSW (O/U: 228.0, Spread: -13.5)

• Pace: UTA (14th) vs GSW (16th)
• Off Eff: UTA (22nd) vs GSW (18th)
• Def Eff: UTA (29th) 🎯 vs GSW (10th)

MIL @ POR (O/U: 229.0, Spread: 6.0)

• Pace: MIL (11th) vs POR (19th)
• Off Eff: MIL (11th) vs POR (26th)
• Def Eff: MIL (8th) vs POR (26th) 🎯

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Damian Lillard ($8,700)

Damian Lillard ($8,700) is in a prime spot tonight as he returns to Portland for what should be a high-usage revenge narrative against his former team. Beyond the storyline, the numbers back him up as one of the top plays on the slate. Lillard projects for 47.5 DK points at an excellent 5.5x value and has been locked into heavy minutes, averaging 39+ over his last four games. His recent production speaks for itself—he’s posted 54+ DK points in three of his last four outings, including a triple-double against the Clippers. With a stellar 1.28 FPPM rate and a Boom% of nearly 30%, he has legitimate upside in both cash games and tournaments.

The main concern here is ownership, as Lillard is projected to be rostered by 34% of the field. While that’s chalky, it feels justified given his current form and role in Milwaukee’s offense alongside Giannis. The matchup against Portland isn’t overly intimidating either—they rank middle-of-the-pack defensively but lack strong perimeter defenders capable of slowing down Dame. With an Optimal% of 33.6%, Lillard fits into plenty of lineup builds tonight and remains one of the safest high-floor options with ceiling potential at this price point. Don’t overthink this one—he’s worth eating some chalk for in most formats.

More PG Plays:

• Tyrese Maxey ($9,800)
• Amen Thompson ($8,000)
• Stephen Curry ($8,800)

SG - Kelly Oubre Jr. ($6,200)

Kelly Oubre Jr. ($6,200) stands out as a strong mid-range option on tonight’s slate, especially in his matchup against the Lakers. With Joel Embiid and Paul George sidelined, Oubre has taken on an increased offensive role, averaging 17.5 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 1.5 steals over his last six games. He’s projected to play 36 minutes tonight and is coming off back-to-back double-doubles where he posted 46 and 48.8 DK points. At a salary of $6,200, his value is solid at 5.12x with a projection of 31.77 DK points—putting him in nearly 20% of optimal lineups for good reason.

While Oubre’s ownership is expected to hover around 20%, this chalk feels justified given his recent production and the game environment against the Lakers, who rank in the middle of the pack defensively but often play in high-paced contests that favor fantasy scoring. His tournament rank of #1 and Boom% of 16.9% suggest he has legitimate upside if he maintains his current form. With a consistent role and volume in an injury-depleted Sixers lineup, Oubre offers both a stable floor and ceiling potential for tournaments, making him one of the better plays in this price range tonight.

More SG Plays:

• Anfernee Simons ($6,100)
• Isaiah Collier ($5,200)
• Jalen Green ($7,300)

SF - Amen Thompson ($8,000)

Amen Thompson is in a fantastic spot tonight at $8,000, and his DFS profile checks all the right boxes. He’s projected for 42.6 DK points with a strong 5.3x value and appears in nearly 30% of optimal lineups, which suggests he’s not just a safe play but also one with upside. Over his last five games, Thompson has been stuffing the stat sheet, averaging 21.8 points, 11 rebounds, 5.6 assists, and nearly two steals per game while playing over 40 minutes consistently. Against Atlanta, a team that ranks middle-of-the-pack defensively but struggles to contain versatile guards and wings, he’s in a great position to deliver another ceiling performance.

The one downside here is his projected ownership at nearly 29%, which makes him chalky in tournaments. That said, this feels like justified chalk given his recent production and matchup against an Atlanta team that plays at the league’s seventh-fastest pace. His ability to contribute across multiple categories minimizes risk while giving him the potential for another massive game if things break right. If you’re playing GPPs, there’s merit to eating this chalk while differentiating elsewhere because Thompson offers both safety and a path to exceeding value in an up-tempo environment where he’ll see heavy minutes once again.

More SF Plays:

• Deni Avdija ($7,200)
• Andrew Wiggins ($6,800)
• De’Andre Hunter ($5,700)

PF - Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,700)

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,700) is in a prime spot tonight against the Trail Blazers, and while his 34.6% projected ownership makes him one of the chalkiest plays on the slate, it’s hard to argue against it. Portland ranks near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency and struggles mightily against versatile big men, which sets up well for Giannis’ elite 1.72 FPPM production. With a projection of 62.1 DK points and a strong 29.8% Boom Rate, he offers both ceiling and consistency in this matchup. The Bucks are slight road favorites, meaning we should see Giannis play close to his full workload of around 36 minutes in what projects to be a competitive game.

At $11,700, you’re paying up for Giannis, but his value at 5.3x is solid for someone with his upside, and he appears in nearly 26% of optimal lineups for good reason. His recent performances back up this price tag—he’s topped 58 DK points in four of his last five games and is coming off a monster 72.5-point outing against Utah. While high ownership can sometimes feel like a trap, Giannis’ combination of floor and ceiling makes him worth eating the chalk tonight in both cash games and tournaments. If you’re fading him, make sure you have exposure to other studs who can match his output because he’s unlikely to disappoint here.

More PF Plays:

• LeBron James ($10,000)
• Deni Avdija ($7,200)
• Andrew Wiggins ($6,800)

C - Drew Eubanks ($4,100)

Drew Eubanks is shaping up as one of the top value plays on the slate at just $4,100. With Walker Kessler sidelined, Eubanks has stepped into a starting role and should see around 24 minutes against Golden State. His 0.96 FPPM production combined with his projected workload makes him an appealing option, especially given his strong value rating of 5.6x. The Warriors are vulnerable in the frontcourt, ranking in the bottom third of the league in rebounding rate, which bodes well for Eubanks’ ability to rack up boards and defensive stats. While his offensive upside is somewhat limited, he’s proven capable of posting solid fantasy lines when given extended run, as evidenced by his 37.3 DK-point game earlier this month.

At 29.1% projected ownership, Eubanks will be popular, but it’s chalk worth considering in cash games and smaller tournaments due to his affordability and high optimal lineup rate (22.2%). He’s unlikely to break the slate but provides a stable floor with potential for modest upside if he stays out of foul trouble and capitalizes on Golden State’s lack of interior resistance. In larger GPPs, you might consider pivoting if you think there’s too much overlap with other lineups, but overall, Eubanks is a strong play who allows you to spend up elsewhere without sacrificing too much production at center.

More C Plays:

• Anthony Davis ($10,500)
• Onyeka Okongwu ($6,600)
• Alperen Sengun ($9,000)

Good luck today! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!