FREE 1/29 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 9-game slate offers plenty of opportunities to get creative, with a mix of high-total matchups and some slower-paced spots. The standout games from a DFS perspective are DEN at NYK (241.5 total) at 7:30 PM ET and DAL at NOP (233.5 total) closing out the slate at 8:00 PM ET. These two games feature fast tempos and plenty of offensive firepower, making them prime targets for stacking. With the first game tipping off at 7:00 PM ET and all games starting within an hour, late swap might be limited, so nailing your initial builds will be key.

The rest of the slate has some solid mid-range totals but lacks the same level of explosive potential as those top two games. That said, digging into pace metrics and usage trends could uncover value in less obvious spots. Balancing exposure to chalky high-total games with smart pivots elsewhere might be the edge you need tonight. With that in mind… Our January 29 Starting Five is now LIVE!

Game Environment Analysis

DET @ IND (O/U: 231.5, Spread: -6.0)

• Pace: DET (14th) vs IND (8th)
• Off Eff: DET (19th) vs IND (10th)
• Def Eff: DET (13th) vs IND (21st)

TOR @ WAS (O/U: 229.5, Spread: 5.5)

• Pace: TOR (7th) vs WAS (4th)
• Off Eff: TOR (24th) vs WAS (30th)
• Def Eff: TOR (25th) 🎯 vs WAS (30th) 🎯

BKN @ CHA (O/U: 205.5, Spread: -2.0)

• Pace: BKN (29th) vs CHA (21st)
• Off Eff: BKN (28th) vs CHA (27th)
• Def Eff: BKN (27th) 🎯 vs CHA (15th)

CHI @ BOS (O/U: 228.0, Spread: -14.0)

• Pace: CHI (2nd) vs BOS (25th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: CHI (14th) vs BOS (3rd) 🔥
• Def Eff: CHI (23rd) vs BOS (6th)

CLE @ MIA (O/U: 224.5, Spread: 6.5)

• Pace: CLE (6th) vs MIA (27th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: CLE (1st) 🔥 vs MIA (16th)
• Def Eff: CLE (9th) vs MIA (12th)

DEN @ NYK (O/U: 241.5, Spread: -2.5)

• Pace: DEN (5th) vs NYK (26th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: DEN (4th) 🔥 vs NYK (2nd) 🔥
• Def Eff: DEN (19th) vs NYK (17th)

SAC @ PHI (O/U: 232.0, Spread: 8.0)

• Pace: SAC (10th) vs PHI (28th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: SAC (7th) 🔥 vs PHI (21st)
• Def Eff: SAC (16th) vs PHI (20th)

DAL @ NOP (O/U: 233.5, Spread: 1.0)

• Pace: DAL (13th) vs NOP (12th)
• Off Eff: DAL (8th) 🔥 vs NOP (25th)
• Def Eff: DAL (11th) vs NOP (28th) 🎯

LAC @ SAS (O/U: 220.5, Spread: 4.0)

• Pace: LAC (20th) vs SAS (16th)
• Off Eff: LAC (20th) vs SAS (17th)
• Def Eff: LAC (3rd) vs SAS (18th)

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Ty Jerome ($4,400)

Ty Jerome stands out as one of the best value plays on tonight’s slate at just $4,400. Projected for 30.1 DK points with a strong 6.8x value rating, he’s in an excellent spot to deliver against Miami. While the Heat are known for their defensive discipline, Jerome’s 1.07 FPPM and expected 28 minutes suggest he has plenty of opportunity to exceed his price tag. His recent performances show a mix of scoring upside (33 points vs. PHI) and consistency, making him a reliable option for cash games while still offering tournament-winning potential with a 41.3% boom rate.

That said, Jerome’s 50.4% projected ownership is something to consider carefully in GPPs. While his high optimal lineup percentage (19.1%) supports the chalk being justified, fading him could be a viable strategy if you believe he’ll underperform in a slower-paced game against Miami’s grind-it-out style of play. Ultimately, Jerome is priced too well to ignore entirely, but diversifying exposure in tournaments might be wise given the heavy field ownership.

More PG Plays:

• Tyrese Maxey ($9,800)
• Jalen Brunson ($8,700)
• James Harden ($9,400)

SG - Kelly Oubre Jr. ($6,100)

Kelly Oubre Jr. ($6,100) stands out as one of the stronger mid-range plays on this slate, especially given his consistent production and expanded role in Philadelphia’s shorthanded lineup. He’s averaged nearly 40 minutes over his last three games and has delivered DK scores of 36.5, 46.0, and 48.8 during that span. With a solid 0.97 FPPM rate and a projected output of 34.96 DK points, he offers a strong value at 5.7x his salary against a Sacramento defense that struggles to contain wings and ranks in the bottom half of the league in defensive efficiency overall.

The biggest question here is whether Oubre’s high ownership (26.8%) makes him too chalky for tournaments, but in this case, it feels justified. His elevated usage with key teammates sidelined gives him a secure floor while still leaving room for upside—his Boom% of 28.6% reflects that potential to hit value and then some in this pace-friendly matchup against the Kings. While he won’t sneak up on anyone tonight, fading him could be risky given his role, recent form, and ability to stuff the stat sheet across multiple categories.

More SG Plays:

• Jaylen Brown ($7,600)
• Donovan Mitchell ($8,400)
• Kyrie Irving ($9,000)

SF - Josh Okogie ($4,300)

At $4,300, Josh Okogie is one of the best value plays on the slate, and his 1.01 FPPM production makes him a strong option in both cash games and tournaments. He’s projected for 28.25 DK points, which translates to an impressive 6.57x value, and his 35.7% Boom Rate shows he has legitimate upside at this salary. Okogie has been consistently active on both ends of the floor recently, as evidenced by his 33 DK points in just 25 minutes against the Lakers and a double-double performance against Portland earlier in the week. With a matchup against Brooklyn, who ranks middle of the pack defensively but struggles with wing scorers, this game environment should provide plenty of opportunities for Okogie to fill up the stat sheet.

The biggest concern here is ownership; Okogie is projected to be rostered at nearly 30%, making him one of the chalkiest plays on the slate. That said, this chalk feels justified given his combination of price, role, and recent production. He’s appearing in over 20% of optimal lineups for good reason and offers solid floor/ceiling potential at a low cost. While fading him could create leverage in large-field GPPs, it’s hard to ignore his ability to contribute across multiple categories while playing around 28 minutes per game lately. If you’re comfortable eating chalk where it makes sense, Okogie is a great building block tonight.

More SF Plays:

• Jaylen Brown ($7,600)
• RJ Barrett ($7,800)
• Scottie Barnes ($9,300)

PF - Miles Bridges ($8,200)

Miles Bridges ($8,200) is in a strong spot tonight against Brooklyn, and his combination of consistent production and upside makes him worth the price tag. He’s projected for 42.7 DK points at 1.3 FPPM, which aligns well with his recent performances, including a 46-point showing against the Lakers. The Nets rank middle-of-the-pack defensively, but they struggle against versatile forwards who can stretch the floor and attack inside, which plays into Bridges’ strengths. With LaMelo Ball potentially limited or out, Bridges could see an uptick in usage again, as we saw in his last game where he attempted 23 shots and played 37 minutes. His Boom% of nearly 25% shows he has tournament-winning potential tonight.

The ownership projection (17.1%) is on the higher side, but it’s justified given Bridges’ role and ceiling in this matchup. At a solid value of 5.21x and appearing in over 14% of optimal lineups, he profiles as a strong play across all formats. While he won’t be sneaky at this level of ownership, fading him could be risky given his ability to produce across multiple categories with heavy minutes locked in. If you’re looking for a reliable mid-to-high-priced option with legitimate upside, Bridges should firmly be on your radar tonight.

More PF Plays:

• Pascal Siakam ($7,500)
• PJ Washington ($7,000)
• Kyle Kuzma ($6,200)

C - Jonas Valanciunas ($5,400)

Jonas Valanciunas ($5,400) is shaping up to be one of the more intriguing value options on this slate. Despite coming off the bench for Washington, his per-minute production remains elite, averaging 1.35 DK points per minute. In a matchup against Toronto, who struggles to defend opposing bigs effectively, Valanciunas is projected for 33.85 DK points, giving him a stellar 6.27x value. With just 25 minutes expected, his upside relies heavily on efficiency—but as we’ve seen in recent games (like his 45.5 DK-point outing against Sacramento in only 23 minutes), he’s more than capable of delivering in limited time. His Boom% of 38.33% and appearance in 14% of optimal lineups reinforce that he’s not just a safe value play but also offers tournament-winning upside.

The biggest question here is ownership, as Valanciunas is projected to be highly owned at 28%. While chalky plays can sometimes be concerning in tournaments, this feels like justified popularity given his price point and ceiling potential. If you’re looking for leverage elsewhere, fading him could work if you believe his minutes will stay closer to the low end of his recent range (17-19). However, the combination of matchup, efficiency, and affordability makes him tough to ignore tonight—especially if you’re prioritizing studs and need solid mid-tier options to round out your lineup.

More C Plays:

• Moussa Diabate ($3,700)
• Nikola Jokic ($12,300)
• Domantas Sabonis ($9,900)

Good luck today! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!