FREE 1/30 NBA Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

Tonight’s 5-game NBA slate offers a mix of intriguing game environments, headlined by two high-total matchups that should draw plenty of DFS attention. The action tips off at 7:00 PM ET with ATL at CLE, boasting the slate’s highest total at 240.0. Later, HOU at MEM (236.5) brings another fast-paced matchup to the table, with plenty of potential for fantasy fireworks. The rest of the slate has slower-paced spots, so roster construction will likely hinge on how you approach these higher-scoring games.

With just five games and staggered start times (last game tips at 10:00 PM ET), late swap opportunities could be key tonight. Prioritizing players in those marquee matchups while staying flexible for news later in the evening might give you an edge. With that in mind… Our January 30 Starting Five is now LIVE!

Game Environment Analysis

ATL @ CLE (O/U: 240.0, Spread: -10.5)

• Pace: ATL (2nd) vs CLE (6th)
• Off Eff: ATL (22nd) vs CLE (1st) 🔥
• Def Eff: ATL (13th) vs CLE (9th)

LAL @ WAS (O/U: 223.5, Spread: 9.0)

• Pace: LAL (22nd) vs WAS (4th) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: LAL (12th) vs WAS (30th)
• Def Eff: LAL (22nd) vs WAS (30th) 🎯

MIN @ UTA (O/U: 225.0, Spread: 5.5)

• Pace: MIN (24th) vs UTA (15th)
• Off Eff: MIN (13th) vs UTA (23rd)
• Def Eff: MIN (6th) vs UTA (29th) 🎯

HOU @ MEM (O/U: 236.5, Spread: -5.0)

• Pace: HOU (18th) vs MEM (1st) 🏃 (Pace mismatch)
• Off Eff: HOU (14th) vs MEM (5th)
• Def Eff: HOU (2nd) vs MEM (7th)

ORL @ POR (O/U: 212.5, Spread: 5.5)

• Pace: ORL (30th) vs POR (19th)
• Off Eff: ORL (29th) vs POR (26th)
• Def Eff: ORL (3rd) vs POR (27th) 🎯

Legend:

🏃 = Significant pace mismatch

🔥 = Strong offense vs weak defense

🎯 = Poor defensive team

⚠️ = Blowout risk

Bold = Favored team

PG - Anthony Edwards ($9,500)

Anthony Edwards ($9,500) is in a strong spot tonight against the Jazz, and his recent production backs up the price tag. Over his last five games, Edwards has averaged 45.74 DK points, highlighted by a 59.3-point outing against Phoenix where he tied his career-high with four blocks. Utah’s defense ranks in the bottom third of the league against opposing guards, which sets up well for Edwards to continue his all-around dominance. With a hefty 37-minute projection and a solid 1.3 FPPM rate, he’s positioned to deliver value at 5.06x on DraftKings while offering legitimate upside in tournaments (21% Boom%). His ability to rack up defensive stats and volume scoring adds an extra layer of appeal in this matchup.

At 20.9% projected ownership, Edwards will be chalky relative to field averages, but it’s not unwarranted given his role and ceiling potential. He appears in 24.3% of optimal lineups for good reason—this is a pace-up spot where he should thrive as the centerpiece of Minnesota’s offense. While his turnovers can sometimes be a concern (seven last game), his defensive contributions and scoring efficiency more than make up for it. If you’re comfortable eating some chalk, Edwards is one of the best high-priced options on the slate who checks all the boxes for both floor and ceiling in GPPs.

More PG Plays:

• Jordan Poole ($6,900)
• Donovan Mitchell ($8,400)
• Amen Thompson ($8,300)

SG - Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($3,400)

Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($3,400) stands out as one of the best value plays on tonight’s slate, and for good reason. At just 0.77 FPPM, he isn’t a high-efficiency producer, but his projected 26 minutes against Utah provides plenty of opportunity to hit value at this price point. His recent performances have been somewhat volatile, but we’ve seen a ceiling game recently with 31 DK points in 35 minutes against Phoenix. If he can hover around his projection of 19.96 DK points, that’s nearly 6x value—a strong return for a player priced this low. Utah’s defense hasn’t exactly been stout this season, particularly against guards, making this an appealing spot for Alexander-Walker to contribute offensively.

The real question here is whether his high ownership (22.1%) is worth eating in tournaments. Given his strong Boom% (20.5%) and appearance in over 20% of optimal lineups, the chalk seems justified if you’re looking for salary relief to pay up elsewhere. However, keep in mind that at this level of ownership, you’re not gaining much leverage by rostering him in GPPs unless he has another ceiling game like the one against Phoenix. If you’re building contrarian lineups, it might be worth pivoting off NAW in favor of lower-owned options in a similar price range. Still, he’s an excellent play for cash games or balanced tournament builds where value is key.

More SG Plays:

• Donovan Mitchell ($8,400)
• Anfernee Simons ($6,400)
• Bilal Coulibaly ($5,500)

SF - Amen Thompson ($8,300)

Amen Thompson ($8,300) stands out as a solid mid-tier option tonight with his combination of recent form and projected workload. Over his last five games, he’s flashed significant upside, including a 64.5 DK-point triple-double against Cleveland and a 55.8 DK-point explosion versus Boston. With a hefty 38-minute projection in this matchup against Memphis, Thompson has the opportunity to deliver again. Memphis ranks middle-of-the-pack defensively but has struggled with versatile playmakers, and Thompson’s ability to contribute across every stat category makes him especially appealing in tournaments. His 4.93x value projection and 18.3% Boom Rate suggest he’s priced appropriately for his ceiling.

The moderate ownership (20.2%) is worth noting because while it doesn’t make him a sneaky play, it doesn’t necessarily mean he’s over-chalked either. With his recent production and role as one of Houston’s primary offensive engines, this level of ownership seems justified for both cash games and tournaments. He also appears in nearly 18% of optimal lineups, which further supports his viability on this slate. While there’s some risk tied to his turnovers and inconsistent shooting from deep, Thompson’s ability to rack up steals, rebounds, and assists provides him with multiple paths to hitting value or even exceeding it tonight.

More SF Plays:

• Deni Avdija ($7,300)
• Franz Wagner ($7,800)
• Rui Hachimura ($4,900)

PF - LeBron James ($10,500)

LeBron James ($10,500) is in a fantastic spot tonight against the Wizards, and while his questionable tag is worth monitoring, he’s shaping up to be one of the top plays on the slate if active. Washington is a fast-paced team with one of the worst defensive ratings in the league, which creates an ideal game environment for LeBron to rack up fantasy points. With Anthony Davis already ruled out, LeBron should shoulder an even heavier offensive load, and his elite 1.63 FPPM projection reflects that upside. A projected 57.2 DK points at 5.45x value makes him not only a safe cash play but also a strong tournament option despite high ownership.

Speaking of ownership, LeBron’s 42.7% projected roster rate is steep but justifiable given his ceiling and optimal lineup rate (36.5%). This chalk isn’t something to fade lightly—he ranks first in tournament hero metrics and carries a 33.3% boom percentage, meaning he has significant potential to exceed value even at this salary. The Wizards’ lackluster defense against forwards only strengthens his case as a core building block tonight. If you’re looking to differentiate elsewhere in your lineup, eating the chalk on LeBron seems like a smart move given his role and matchup dynamics.

More PF Plays:

• Evan Mobley ($7,700)
• Julius Randle ($7,500)
• Jaren Jackson Jr. ($7,800)

C - Evan Mobley ($7,700)

Evan Mobley is in a strong spot tonight at $7,700, facing an Atlanta team that struggles to contain versatile bigs. With a solid 1.33 FPPM and projected for 31 minutes, he’s expected to produce 41.2 DK points, giving him a strong 5.35x value on his salary. His recent performances back this up—he’s posted double-doubles in back-to-back games, including an impressive 22-point, 15-rebound effort against Miami. Atlanta has been vulnerable to opposing power forwards all season, and Mobley’s ability to contribute across multiple categories makes him a reliable option in this matchup.

At 24% projected ownership, Mobley is one of the chalkier plays on the slate, but it feels justified given his combination of upside (22.8% Boom rate) and consistency (appears in nearly 23% of optimal lineups). While he might not offer much leverage in tournaments, he’s a safe anchor for cash games or single-entry contests where his high floor is valuable. If you’re targeting this game environment or need stability in your lineup build, Mobley is an excellent choice despite the elevated ownership.

More C Plays:

• Julius Randle ($7,500)
• Jarrett Allen ($6,500)
• Jaren Jackson Jr. ($7,800)

Good luck today! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Player Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!