FREE 1/26 NFL Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

As we dive into tomorrow’s 2-game DFS NFL slate, both games present high-scoring potentials, with Over/Unders set at 47.5 and 48.5, respectively, making them prime targets for our fantasy lineups. Given the relatively tight spreads, especially in the BUF @ KC game, we can anticipate competitive environments conducive to high fantasy scoring from start to finish.

Weather appears to be a non-issue for both contests, with clear conditions and manageable temperatures forecasted. In terms of strategy, given the slate size, focusing on stacking options and game script scenarios from these two potentially high-scoring affairs will be key. Identifying under-the-radar value plays that can differentiate lineups will also be crucial in such a tight slate, where leveraging matchups and potential game flow becomes even more important for success.

Top Game Stacks

KC vs BUF ($18,900)

Players: Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, James Cook

Analyzing the NFL game stack for the KC vs. BUF matchup, we observe a promising game environment with a total of 48.5 and a narrow spread of just 2 points, indicating expectations for a competitive and high-scoring affair. The mild weather conditions, featuring 32° temperatures and light NW winds at 5 mph, should not significantly impact the passing or kicking games, enabling both offenses to operate at full capacity. The focus on key players Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and James Cook underscores a strategic investment in high-correlation assets; Mahomes to Kelce represents one of the highest-ceiling quarterback-to-tight end connections in the league, while James Cook’s inclusion suggests an expectation for significant check-downs or a balanced offensive approach from Buffalo. Given the close spread, game script variability is high, potentially leading to a back-and-forth affair that benefits all parts of this stack.

The projected points total of 52.9 for these players combined with an average ownership of 39.1% reflects both their high ceiling and public favoritism. However, their optimal rate at 42.6% surpasses their collective ownership percentage slightly, suggesting that despite being popular choices among DFS players, they still offer a slight edge in terms of tournament viability. The value metric at 2.80 pts/$1000 solidifies this stack as not only potent in terms of scoring potential but also efficient relative to their combined salary cap hit of $18,900.

In conclusion, this KC vs. BUF stack is positioned well for tournament play given its blend of high upside and game environment factors conducive to scoring. The correlation between Mahomes and Kelce provides a foundational high-point potential while Cook offers differentiation and leverage against more traditional builds focused solely on aerial attacks. Despite relatively high ownership levels suggesting they won’t be under-the-radar plays, their optimal rate indicates that they remain slightly undervalued by the field as a whole—making them attractive options for those looking to capitalize on what promises to be one of the slate’s most dynamic games.

WAS vs PHI ($22,300)

Players: Jayden Daniels, Terry McLaurin, Saquon Barkley

The game between WAS and PHI presents an intriguing environment for fantasy players, with a relatively high total of 47.5 points and a spread indicating PHI is favored to win by 6 points. The weather conditions, featuring 40° temperatures and a 10 mph west wind, are unlikely to significantly impact the passing or kicking games, allowing for potential high-scoring outcomes. The selected stack of Jayden Daniels, Terry McLaurin, and Saquon Barkley is particularly interesting due to the diverse correlation between players from both teams, which could capitalize on various game script possibilities.

Given the spread, if PHI leads as expected, we might see more passing attempts from WAS in catch-up mode, potentially benefiting McLaurin as a primary target. Concurrently, Barkley’s role in either maintaining a lead or exploiting any weaknesses in WAS’s defense could ensure his involvement regardless of the game script. Daniels’s dual-threat capability adds an unpredictable element that could exploit PHI’s defense in unique ways.

At an average ownership of 52.3%, this stack is evidently popular among fantasy players, likely due to its high projected points (60.2) and substantial value (2.70 pts/$1000). This popularity does raise concerns about tournament viability; however, the optimal rate of 41.4% suggests that despite high ownership levels, this stack remains a strong contender for lineups aiming at top finishes. Fantasy players should weigh the benefits of leveraging such a highly owned but potentially highly productive stack against the risk of not differentiating enough in large field tournaments.

QB Plays

Top Play: Patrick Mahomes ($6,000)

Patrick Mahomes’ recent performance, as detailed in the playoff win over the Texans, may not have been statistically explosive, but it was crucial in advancing the Chiefs. Completing 16 of 25 pass attempts for 177 yards and adding a touchdown, his ability to make significant plays under pressure was evident, particularly highlighted by a remarkable touchdown pass to Travis Kelce. This showcases Mahomes’ knack for delivering in clutch moments, an invaluable trait for DFS considerations. Moreover, his full participation in practice following a minor ankle injury suggests he is in optimal condition for the upcoming game against Buffalo, which is critical given the high stakes of the AFC Championship Game.

From a DFS standpoint, Mahomes presents a compelling option with a salary of $6,000, which, given his projected points of 21.8 and a value of 3.63, positions him as a strong play in terms of cost-efficiency. His optimal lineup percentage at 28.3% combined with a projected ownership of 33.5% indicates that while he will be a popular choice, his potential for high performance justifies the expected high ownership. The matchup against Buffalo in a game with a total of 48.5 and a narrow spread suggests a competitive environment that could favor Mahomes’ pass-heavy game script. Considering these factors, Mahomes appears to be a solid tournament play, offering both a high floor and ceiling due to his proven track record and the game’s favorable context.

Honorable Mentions

• Josh Allen ($7,500)
• Jayden Daniels ($7,000)
• Jalen Hurts ($6,500)

RB Plays

Top Play: Saquon Barkley ($8,600)

Saquon Barkley has been on an exceptional run in recent games, showcasing his capability as a premier running back in the NFL. His performance in the divisional-round win against the Rams, where he amassed 205 rushing yards on 26 carries and scored two touchdowns, underscores his critical role in the Philadelphia Eagles’ offense. This remarkable output, coupled with his consistency in topping the century mark as he did against the Packers with 119 yards, indicates a strong upward trend. With 2,329 rushing yards through 18 appearances, Barkley is not only a significant contributor but also on the cusp of breaking Terrell Davis’ all-time NFL record for rushing yards in a season. His dual-threat ability, as evidenced by his receptions, adds another dimension to his game, making him a formidable opponent for the Commanders in the upcoming NFC Championship Game.

From a DFS standpoint, Barkley’s high salary of $8,600 reflects his elite status and expected output, which is further justified by his projected points of 24.4, GPP rank of 3, and an optimal lineup percentage of 67.7%. However, his projected ownership at 90.8% suggests he will be a popular choice, which could diminish the uniqueness of DFS lineups featuring him in tournament play. Despite this, Barkley’s recent performances and the high-scoring game environment indicated by a total of 47.5 points with the Eagles favored by -6 points make him a compelling play. The matchup against the Commanders, along with favorable weather conditions, sets the stage for another potentially massive output, reinforcing his status as a top tournament option despite the high ownership. Therefore, while Barkley’s selection may not differentiate a DFS lineup, his explosive potential and critical role in the Eagles’ offense justify his inclusion as a foundational player in tournament lineups.

Honorable Mentions

• James Cook ($6,900)
• Austin Ekeler ($5,300)
• Kareem Hunt ($5,400)

WR Plays

Top Play: Xavier Worthy ($5,500)

Xavier Worthy stands out as a compelling DFS option for tomorrow’s slate, especially considering his recent performance and unique position within the Kansas City Chiefs’ receiving corps. In the last playoff game, Worthy emerged as the only wide receiver for the Chiefs to make any receptions, hauling in five of six targets for 45 yards, despite a minor setback on a rushing attempt. This performance, particularly in the context of prominent teammates like DeAndre Hopkins, Hollywood Brown, and JuJu Smith-Schuster failing to register catches, underscores Worthy’s increasing relevance and reliability in the Chiefs’ offense. His role, as highlighted by recent trends, suggests an upward trajectory in usage and impact, making him a noteworthy consideration for DFS lineups, especially in a high-stakes AFC Championship Game against Buffalo with a close spread and high game total indicating a potentially pass-heavy script.

Analyzing Worthy’s DFS value and projected ownership reveals a player positioned for significant impact. Priced at $5,500 with a GPP rank of 1, projected points of 14.9, and an optimal lineup percentage of 48.9%, Worthy presents a high-value opportunity. His projected ownership at 48.6% reflects widespread recognition of his potential value, yet it also indicates a high degree of consensus that could diminish the uniqueness of selecting him in tournament play. However, given the pivotal game environment, Worthy’s recent sole productivity among Chiefs WRs, and the relatively moderate salary, he remains an attractive option for tournament lineups. The expectation for a high-scoring affair with Buffalo, coupled with his emerging role, makes Worthy a potentially lucrative play, though DFS players should weigh the balance between his high ownership and the chance for a standout performance.

Honorable Mentions

• A.J. Brown ($6,800)
• Khalil Shakir ($5,700)
• DeVonta Smith ($5,800)

TE Plays

Top Play: Travis Kelce ($6,000)

Travis Kelce’s recent performance, particularly his dominating outing against Houston with seven receptions for 117 yards and a touchdown, signals his critical role in the Chiefs’ offensive scheme, especially in high-stakes matchups. Despite a dip in his season totals for 2024, Kelce’s ability to perform when it matters, highlighted by his best receiving line of the season in the divisional-round, reaffirms his status as quarterback Patrick Mahomes’ go-to target. His rest in Week 18, a coach’s decision, suggests the team is keen on keeping him fresh for pivotal games, underlining his importance to the team’s offensive strategies. The game environment against Buffalo, with a high total of 48.5 and a narrow spread, points to a potentially high-scoring affair where Kelce’s involvement could be significant.

From a DFS standpoint, Kelce’s salary of $6,000 reflects substantial value given his projected points of 16.9 and a value score of 2.82, positioning him as a top-tier option at the tight end position for the slate. His optimal lineup percentage of 51.1% combined with a projected ownership of 44.9% suggests he is both a popular and potentially lucrative choice among DFS players. The matchup against Buffalo, despite the lack of specific defense vs. TE rank data, is expected to be competitive and conducive to passing, potentially increasing Kelce’s opportunities for receptions and touchdowns. Considering these factors, Kelce emerges as a compelling tournament play, offering both high upside and a relatively high floor due to his consistent target share, especially in critical games, making him a worthwhile investment in DFS contests for the upcoming slate.

Honorable Mentions

• Dallas Goedert ($4,500)
• Dalton Kincaid ($3,600)
• Zach Ertz ($4,300)

DST Plays

Top Play: Eagles ($3,300)

The Philadelphia Eagles DST is facing off against the Washington Football Team in a game with a total of 47.5 points and the Eagles favored by 6. This setting suggests a competitive yet high-scoring affair, which traditionally isn’t the most favorable for DST units due to the implied points against. However, with the opponent’s implied total at 26.8, there’s an expectation of scoring from Washington, though this also implies potential for turnovers and sacks as they push to meet this mark, especially if playing from behind. The Eagles’ defense, known for its aggressive pass rush and ability to force turnovers, can capitalize on any mistakes made by Washington’s offense, which has shown vulnerability in protection and decision-making in high-pressure situations.

From a DFS perspective, the Eagles DST is priced at $3,300 with a GPP rank of 1, projected points of 7.8, and a value of 2.35, making them a compelling option. Their optimal lineup percentage sitting at 40.6% with a projected ownership of 41.5% indicates a high level of consensus around their potential for a strong performance, making them a popular pick. While high ownership in tournaments can sometimes be a deterrent for those looking for differentiation, the combination of their aggressive defensive play style and the game environment suggests they have the upside to justify their ownership levels. Given the favorable matchup against Washington, the Eagles DST stands out as a solid tournament play, particularly for those looking to leverage expected defensive touchdowns or turnovers which could significantly outperform their salary-implied point expectation.

Honorable Mentions

• Chiefs ($3,100)
• Bills ($2,900)
• Commanders ($2,700)

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