After a sim, every lineup in your pool carries a set of probabilities and an expected return for each scenario you ran. This page explains each number and how to compare two lineups with it.
Before you start
- Run a sim. See Run your first sim.
- Know your contest type. A GPP and a cash game read different numbers. See DFS terms.
Where the numbers show
- The scenario band. One band per scenario, with its entry count and its ROI. A wider panel adds its Top 1%, or Win% for a contest of 100 entries or fewer. The line under it shows the projection, salary, ownership sum, and actual points of the lineups under the band. Its chevron opens their average, minimum, and maximum, and the band's average sim numbers. The numbers on the cards under it belong to that scenario.
- Lineup cards. The ROI in the header. A collapsed card shows Win%, Top 0.1%, Top 1%, Top 5%, Cash%, and Lev in its bottom row. On a card in Entries Preview, Paths takes the place of Lev when the sim of its contest or scenario tracked Win Paths. An expanded card shows the same metrics, with Ceiling, Floor, Own, Opt, and Val below them. On the Pool tab each card shows a small table instead, one row per contest, with the columns ROI, Win%, T0.1%, T1%, and Paths. Paths counts the simulated games in which the lineup finished in that contest's top 1%.
- The Pool tab. One row per scenario on every card, so you see the same lineup across every contest at once. The contest picker beside Rank by names the contest whose numbers rank and filter the Pool.
- The table view. Click Table view in the panel header for ROI, Win%, and Cash% in columns. On a contest in Entries Preview, Paths follows Cash% when that contest's sim tracked Win Paths. The columns show on a wide panel; drag the panel's left edge to widen it. A narrow panel shows PROJ and OWN% only, with ACTUAL once the slate has real scores.
What each metric means
| Label | Meaning | How to read it |
|---|---|---|
| ROI / Exp. ROI | Average return per $1 entered, after the prize is shared with the expected copies of the lineup in the contest. | +69% means $1.69 back per $1. 0% is break-even. The default ranking for a GPP. A pool's average ROI is usually negative, because the contest keeps a rake. |
| Win / Win% | Probability of finishing 1st. | A chance too small to show at two decimals reads <0.01%. Above about 350,000 entries the cell reads <0.1%. |
| Top 0.1%, Top 1%, Top 5% | Probability of finishing inside that share of the full contest. | The bands nest: Top 0.1% is at most Top 1%, which is at most Top 5%. A contest of 100 entries or fewer has no Top 0.1% band, so the column is hidden. |
| Cash / Cash% / Cash Prob | Probability of being paid anything. | Use ROI for the fee-adjusted view. |
| Lev / Leverage | The field's average total ownership minus this lineup's total ownership. | Positive means the lineup is less owned than a typical opponent. Negative means it is chalkier than the field. |
| Ceiling / Floor | The lineup's 95th and 25th percentile scores. | Upside and downside. |
| GeoMean | The geometric mean of the lineup's simulated totals. | Rewards consistency. A lineup that scores near 0 in many plays reads low. |
| PROJ, SALARY, OWN Σ, ACTUAL | Projection, salary, summed ownership, and real points of the lineups under the band. The band's chevron shows each one's average, minimum, and maximum. | Available before a sim. ACTUAL shows once the slate has real scores. |
The Best badges
The leader for each metric under a band gets a green badge: Best Win%, Best Top 0.1%, Best Top 1%, Best Top 5%, Best Cash%, Best Ceiling, or Best Leverage. A +N after the badge means the lineup leads N more metrics.
How it works
Every metric comes from the same simulated plays. There is no weighting and no combined score. When you rank by a metric, the panel sorts by that number alone, descending. When the panel orders lineups on its own after a sim, a cash contest orders by Cash Prob and everything else by ROI.
The numbers for one scenario come from that scenario's field, ladder, and My Entries. The same lineup can show +40% ROI in a 2,000-entry GPP and -30% in a 10,000-entry GPP with a flatter ladder. Read the band before you read the card.
How to compare two lineups
- Pick the metric that matches the contest. GPP: ROI or Top 1%. Large GPP: Top 0.1%. Cash or 50/50: Cash. Single entry: Win or Top 1%.
- Use the ranking. A 2.0% estimate ranks above a 1.0% estimate; the model does not promise the exact odds.
- Check Lev next to Top 1%. A high Top 1% with negative leverage is chalkier than the field, so more opponents share its best finishes.
- Open the Pool tab to see the same lineup across every scenario at once.
Tips
- Sort by ROI first and favor the top of the ranking in a GPP; in a raked contest the whole pool can read negative, so rank within the contest instead of cutting at zero.
- A big Ceiling with a small Floor is a tournament lineup. A tight range is a cash lineup.
- Treat the numbers as relative. The model is an estimate, so use the probabilities to compare your lineups with each other rather than as exact odds.
- Use Best Leverage to find the lineup the field is not on.
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