FREE 02/22 UFC Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

The UFC Seattle card is set, and with 24 fighters on the slate, DFS players have plenty of options to consider for Saturday night. With an average salary of $8,100 and 15 fighters projected for 20%+ ownership, roster construction will require a mix of chalk plays and strategic pivots. Three value plays stand out as potential game-changers, each capable of delivering 8x value with projections exceeding 80 points. Fighters like Anthony Hernandez, who brings relentless wrestling volume and control time upside, and Henry Cejudo, who’s priced at a discount despite his pedigree, offer compelling cases for both cash games and tournaments. Ownership trends suggest many players will gravitate toward high-floor grapplers like Hernandez or undefeated prospects like Matsumoto—but fading the field in key spots could be the edge needed to climb GPP leaderboards.

Key matchups also create interesting dynamics when factoring in pricing and scoring potential. For example, Rob Font’s striking volume makes him a live underdog against Matsumoto, but his takedown defense issues could limit his ceiling if he spends too much time on his back. On the flip side, Silva’s knockout power at featherweight offers tournament-winning upside if you’re willing to pay up for him against Baghdasaryan, whose long layoff adds risk to his already volatile style. With pricing soft enough to allow multiple high-upside fighters in your lineup, finding the right balance between chalky favorites and lower-owned value plays will be critical. Let’s break down our top plays for this slate.

Premium Tier ($9,000-$10,000)

Top Play: Anthony Hernandez (-400) ($9,000)

Anthony Hernandez ($9,000) stands out as a premier option on this slate, and his -400 betting odds reflect the confidence in his ability to secure a win. His relentless grappling-heavy approach is tailor-made for DFS scoring, as evidenced by his recent dominance over Michel Pereira. In that fight, Hernandez racked up 15:42 of control time and landed 10 takedowns alongside 219 total strikes—numbers that showcase his ability to pile up points across multiple categories. With a projection of 86.5 DraftKings points and a slate-best optimal lineup percentage of 47.8%, Hernandez offers both a high floor and the ceiling needed to anchor your lineups in tournaments or cash games.

At 41.4% projected ownership, Hernandez will be one of the more popular plays on the slate, but the chalk appears warranted given his elite metrics and consistent ability to dominate opponents with volume and control. His value rating of 9.61x at this salary only reinforces how efficient he is for DFS purposes compared to other fighters in his price range. While high ownership can sometimes be concerning, Hernandez’s style, recent performances, and strong betting odds make him difficult to fade in most formats. If you’re looking for reliability with upside, “Fluffy” checks all the boxes here.

Other Premium Options

• Mansur Abdul-Malik ($9,700, Proj: 91.8, Own: 51.0%, Odds: -600)
• Nursulton Ruziboev ($9,200, Proj: 74.5, Own: 33.6%, Odds: -350)
• Jean Silva ($9,500, Proj: 80.1, Own: 27.3%, Odds: -200)

Mid-Range Tier ($8,000-$8,999)

Top Play: Ibo Aslan (+120) ($8,500)

Ibo Aslan ($8,500) is an intriguing option this week with a balanced mix of scoring potential and a favorable price tag. His aggressive striking style has been on full display in his first two UFC fights, both ending in early knockouts. While his competition hasn’t been elite, his ability to pressure opponents and finish fights quickly makes him a strong tournament play. With a projected 69.97 DraftKings points and an 8.23x value, he offers solid upside if he can replicate his fast-paced finishes against Ion Cutelaba, who has been inconsistent but dangerous in the early rounds. The +120 betting odds suggest this fight could be competitive, but Aslan’s finishing ability gives him clear paths to a high score.

At 41% projected ownership, Aslan is chalky compared to the field average but still justifiable given his ceiling and optimal lineup percentage (37.3%). He ranks fourth in tournament appeal and third in cash viability, making him playable across formats despite the moderate risk tied to his untested durability at this level. If you’re comfortable eating some chalk, Aslan’s power and pace provide the kind of scoring upside that can make or break lineups in GPPs. However, keep in mind that Cutelaba’s explosiveness could create volatility here, so exposure should be managed carefully in tournaments.

Other Mid-Range Options

• Yadong Song ($8,900, Proj: 74.5, Own: 32.0%)
• Alonzo Menifield ($8,700, Proj: 71.5, Own: 36.6%, Odds: -250)
• Jean Matsumoto ($8,600, Proj: 63.8, Own: 15.6%, Odds: -150)

Value Tier ($7,500-$7,999)

Top Play: Austin Vanderford (-130) ($7,800)

Austin Vanderford ($7,800) presents an intriguing value play on this card, particularly for tournaments. With a projection of 52.5 DraftKings points and a solid 6.73x value rating, he offers salary relief while maintaining upside in a fight he’s slightly favored to win (-130). Vanderford’s wrestling-heavy style is his clearest path to success, as he’s historically relied on takedowns and control time to rack up points. While his recent losses in Bellator raise some concerns, his bounce-back win last October suggests he’s still capable of implementing his grappling game effectively. Facing Nikolay Veretennikov, who has shown vulnerabilities in close fights and lacks UFC-level experience, Vanderford has a clear stylistic edge if he can dictate the pace and avoid extended striking exchanges.

Ownership-wise, Vanderford is projected at 24.6%, which aligns closely with the field average. This moderate ownership makes him less of a leverage play but also avoids the pitfalls of being overly chalky. His 27.2% optimal lineup rate reinforces that he’s appropriately priced for his potential ceiling in this matchup. Given his favorable betting odds and ability to generate consistent scoring through grappling, Vanderford fits well into balanced lineups or as a mid-range tournament option with legitimate upside if he controls the fight on the mat.

Other Value Options

• Rob Font ($7,600, Proj: 51.1, Own: 28.5%, Odds: +130)
• Julius Walker ($7,500, Proj: 41.4, Own: 16.5%, Odds: +210)

Bargain Tier (Under $7,500)

Top Play: Henry Cejudo (+190) ($7,300)

At $7,300, Henry Cejudo offers intriguing value as a grappling-heavy underdog against Yadong Song. While he’s lost two straight, Cejudo’s wrestling pedigree remains elite, and Song’s 72% takedown defense could be tested if “Triple C” can close the distance. This fight likely hinges on whether Cejudo can impose his wrestling early, as prolonged striking exchanges would favor the taller and longer Song. With a 33.9% optimal lineup rate and a projected value of 6.73x, Cejudo has clear paths to outperform his salary—especially in tournaments where his ground control and potential for takedown-heavy scoring create upside.

However, with 36.6% projected ownership, Cejudo isn’t flying under the radar. The chalk feels justified given his price and potential to break the slate with a strong grappling performance. That said, betting odds of +190 suggest he’s still an underdog for good reason—his ability to deal with Song’s striking volume and physical advantages is far from guaranteed. While there’s risk here, especially if Song can keep it standing, Cejudo’s affordability and high optimal percentage make him a viable play in all formats, particularly for those looking to build around mid-range salaries.

Other Bargain Options

• Ricky Simon ($7,100, Proj: 46.1, Own: 34.5%, Odds: +205)
• Rafael Cerqueira ($6,900, Proj: 36.4, Own: 22.3%)
• Eric McConico ($7,000, Proj: 35.7, Own: 16.0%, Odds: +285)

Good luck! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Fighter Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!