FREE 04/26 UFC Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

This weekend’s UFC slate offers a lot to unpack, with 28 fighters on the card and several intriguing matchups that could shift DFS lineups. With an average salary of $8,111, there’s plenty of flexibility in roster construction, but ownership trends will play a big role in decision-making. Thirteen fighters are projected for 20%+ ownership, so finding leverage spots is key. There are also three strong value plays with 8x+ potential and 80+ projected points, making them crucial targets for building balanced lineups. Keep an eye on Ian Garry vs. Prates—a near pick’em fight with high scoring potential due to both fighters’ striking volume and finishing ability. Similarly, Zhang’s aggressive style against a fading Anthony Smith makes him a high-ceiling option, though his hefty price tag will force some tough decisions.

The main challenge this week will be navigating highly owned fighters while mixing in under-the-radar plays to differentiate your lineup. Michel Pereira stands out as a mid-range option with upside after moving up to middleweight, though his prior struggles against elite grapplers like Hernandez raise questions about consistency. On the other hand, Giga Chikadze offers intriguing value at just $7,400 as only a slight underdog against David Onama—perfect for those looking to save salary while maintaining upside. With several fights likely to end early and some clear mismatches on the card, this slate rewards targeting finishes and leveraging high-volume strikers or dominant grapplers. Let’s break down our top plays for this slate.

Premium Tier ($9,000-$10,000)

Top Play: Zhang Mingyang (-549) ($9,600)

Zhang Mingyang ($9600) stands out as one of the premier plays on this slate, and his -549 betting odds reflect the confidence in his ability to secure a dominant win. With back-to-back first-round finishes to kick off his UFC career, Zhang has demonstrated massive power and a relentless offensive style that makes him a strong DFS option, particularly for tournaments. His projection is the highest on the card, and his aggressive approach—bolstered by an underrated ground game—gives him multiple paths to high scores. While Anthony Smith is a more experienced opponent, he’s coming off two straight losses and seems to be on the decline, making this a favorable matchup for Zhang to continue his momentum.

The biggest concern with Zhang is his projected ownership at 41.1%, which is well above the field average. However, given his top-ranked optimal lineup percentage (38.2%) and excellent value rating (9.34x), this chalk appears justified in both cash games and tournaments. Zhang’s ability to finish fights early gives him elite upside, while his aggressive style provides a relatively safe floor even if he doesn’t secure an early stoppage. If you’re comfortable eating the chalk, he’s a strong play at $9600 with clear win conditions that align perfectly with DFS scoring metrics.

Other Premium Options

• Jaqueline Amorim ($9,500, Proj: 85.9, Own: 38.7%, Odds: -250)
• Da’Mon Blackshear ($9,300, Proj: 78.2, Own: 28.0%, Odds: -350)

Mid-Range Tier ($8,000-$8,999)

Top Play: Randy Brown (-225) ($8,900)

Randy Brown ($8,900) presents an intriguing option for DFS lineups this week, particularly in tournaments. Despite his recent split-decision loss to Bryan Battle, Brown showcased strong striking at range and held his own against a heavier opponent. His matchup against Nicolas Dalby sets up well for his skill set, as Brown holds clear advantages in height, reach, and striking efficiency. With superior takedown defense (73%) to fend off any grappling attempts from Dalby—who isn’t known for consistent wrestling—Brown should be able to dictate the fight’s pace and keep it standing where he thrives. His -225 betting odds imply a solid win probability, giving him both a stable floor and potential finishing upside.

At just 13.3% projected ownership, Brown offers leverage in tournaments relative to higher-owned fighters in his price range. His 26.8% optimal lineup rate suggests he’s outperforming expectations often enough to warrant attention, especially given the favorable stylistic matchup. While his projection doesn’t scream elite upside, the combination of low ownership and tournament rank (4th) makes him a compelling pivot option for players looking to differentiate their builds without sacrificing win equity. In cash games, however, there may be safer plays with better value at this salary tier.

Other Mid-Range Options

• John Castaneda ($8,000, Proj: 52.4, Own: 16.8%, Odds: -110)
• Roberto Romero ($8,300, Proj: 59.4, Own: 23.0%, Odds: +140)

Value Tier ($7,500-$7,999)

Top Play: Carlos Prates (+105) ($7,700)

Carlos Prates ($7,700) offers intriguing value at his price point, particularly given his recent track record of finishing fights early. With four consecutive wins inside two rounds and a solid projection, Prates has shown the ability to generate significant upside through quick finishes. His opponent, Ian Garry, is coming off the first loss of his career, which could make him vulnerable to Prates’ aggressive style and finishing ability. While Garry’s striking volume might present a challenge, Prates’ defensive edge and reach advantage provide paths to success in this matchup. At +105 odds, the fight is essentially a coin flip, making Prates an appealing underdog with legitimate win equity.

The key question here is whether Prates’ massive projected ownership (48.6%) is worth eating in tournaments. While his Optimal% of 32.3% supports the chalk being justified, you’ll need him to finish early or exceed expectations in a decision to truly separate from the field. If he underperforms or Garry controls the pace, fading Prates could pay off in large-field GPPs where leverage is critical. That said, his combination of high value (7.54x) and proven scoring potential makes him a strong play in cash formats or as part of your core lineup build for tournaments—just be mindful of how you balance exposure elsewhere to avoid overly chalky builds.

Other Value Options

• Abus Magomedov ($7,600, Proj: 53.0, Own: 32.2%, Odds: +125 )
• Cameron Saaiman ($7,800, Proj: 54.2, Own: 27.0%, Odds: -150)

Bargain Tier (Under $7,500)

Top Play: Gauge Young (+195) ($7,100)

Gauge Young ($7,100) presents an intriguing value play for DFS contests, particularly given his 6.53x value projection and 31.4% optimal lineup rate. While he’s stepping into this fight on short notice for his UFC debut, his salary provides flexibility to fit higher-priced fighters into your lineup. At +195 odds, he’s a clear underdog against Evan Elder, but the betting line isn’t so wide as to rule out an upset. For tournaments, Young’s potential to exceed his modest projection lies in his ability to capitalize on high-variance opportunities like a finish or control time if the fight hits the mat.

At 33.6% projected ownership, Young is moderately chalky for a punt play, but it’s not unjustified considering his salary and optimal percentage rank (15th overall). The field appears willing to take a shot on him due to the affordability and potential upside in a relatively low-stakes matchup against Elder, who has been inconsistent in the UFC at 2-2. While Young’s debut carries inherent risk—especially with limited tape available—his pricing makes him viable in tournaments where you need salary relief and are chasing ceiling outcomes.

Other Bargain Options

• Chelsea Chandler ($7,200, Proj: 42.5, Own: 16.2%, Odds: +190)
• Jimmy Flick ($7,000, Proj: 41.7, Own: 25.4%, Odds: +275)

Good luck! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Fighter Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!