FREE 04/12 UFC Cheat Sheet: Top DFS Plays

The UFC 314 slate is packed with action, featuring 26 fighters and a balanced average salary of $8,100. With 13 highly owned fighters projected at 20%+ ownership and two strong value plays offering potential 8x returns (80+ fantasy points), roster construction will be key. The main event between Volkanovski and Lopes offers plenty of intrigue, as Volkanovski looks to prove he still has championship-level durability, while Lopes’ youth and size could pose problems. Ownership will likely flock to high-scoring grapplers like Bryce Mitchell and Nikita Krylov, but questions around their matchups could open up opportunities for leverage plays elsewhere.

Pricing trends suggest some mispriced fighters with clear paths to victory, making mid-range options especially appealing this week. With so many competitive fights on the card, finding under-the-radar value without sacrificing upside will be critical to success. Let’s break down our top plays for this slate.

Premium Tier ($9,000-$10,000)

Top Play: Marco Tulio (-225) ($9,200)

Marco Tulio ($9,200) is a high-upside play this week, but his elevated ownership (45.3%) demands careful consideration in tournaments. Coming off a dominant first-round TKO win in his UFC debut, Tulio showcased the power and aggressiveness that make him an appealing DFS option. With a solid betting line (-225), he’s favored to win again, and his projection of 80.1 DraftKings points reflects his ability to finish fights early or pile up significant strikes. However, the chalky ownership limits his appeal as a leverage play in large-field GPPs, so you’ll need to weigh whether his strong metrics—like a 32.5% optimal lineup percentage—justify eating the chalk or pivoting elsewhere.

In cash games, though, Tulio’s profile is hard to ignore. His aggressive style and finishing ability provide both scoring potential and some safety against Tresean Gore, whose durability has been questionable in past fights. While $9,200 is steep, Tulio ranks second in cash formats for good reason: he offers a mix of floor and ceiling that aligns well with his price tag. If you’re looking for tournament differentiation, consider how much exposure you want relative to the field since fading him entirely comes with risk given his clear paths to victory.

Other Premium Options

• Julian Erosa ($9,300, Proj: 79.8, Own: 25.4%, Odds: -575)
• Michal Oleksiejczuk ($9,000, Proj: 68.6, Own: 21.6%, Odds: -250)

Mid-Range Tier ($8,000-$8,999)

Top Play: Alexander Volkanovski (-130) ($8,200)

At $8,200, Alexander Volkanovski is one of the most intriguing plays on this slate. His salary offers significant value, as evidenced by his 9.05x value projection and a strong 43.4% optimal lineup percentage—second-best on the card. Volkanovski’s high-volume striking remains his bread and butter, allowing him to rack up significant strikes even in competitive matchups. While Diego Lopes holds a notable reach advantage, Volkanovski’s ability to close distance with sharp footwork and mix in occasional takedowns provides multiple scoring avenues. The betting odds (-130) reflect a closely contested fight, but Volkanovski’s proven track record against elite competition makes him a solid option for both cash games and tournaments.

The primary concern here is ownership, as Volkanovski is projected to be highly rostered (44.3%). However, given his affordability and well-rounded skill set, this chalk feels justified in most formats. While recent losses raise questions about durability—especially after back-to-back knockouts—those defeats came against elite opposition at lightweight and featherweight. In this matchup, he faces an opponent who hasn’t yet proven himself at the same level of competition. If you’re comfortable eating the chalk in tournaments or want a reliable floor for cash lineups, Volkanovski should be strongly considered given his favorable pricing and upside potential in what projects to be a high-scoring fight.

Other Mid-Range Options

• Nikita Krylov ($8,800, Proj: 70.8, Own: 29.5%, Odds: -175)
• Paddy Pimblett ($8,400, Proj: 67.8, Own: 48.1%, Odds: +105)

Value Tier ($7,500-$7,999)

Top Play: Michael Chandler (-125) ($7,800)

Michael Chandler ($7,800) presents an intriguing option in DFS this week, especially given his favorable salary and high value projection (7.46x). Known for his aggressive style and explosive power, Chandler has the ability to rack up points quickly with significant strikes and knockdowns. While his recent record (1-4 in his last five) raises some concerns, it’s worth noting that he’s faced elite competition during that stretch. Against Paddy Pimblett, Chandler has a clear path to success if he leans on his wrestling base, as Pimblett has shown vulnerability to takedowns and control time in past fights. However, if Chandler engages in a striking war to entertain fans—as he’s done before—he runs the risk of being caught by Pimblett’s opportunistic submissions or volume striking.

At 32.9% projected ownership, Chandler is slightly chalky but not egregiously so, especially considering his strong optimal lineup percentage (29.5%). The moderate ownership suggests the field recognizes his upside at this salary but isn’t fully convinced of his chances to win against a younger, undefeated opponent. Betting odds (-125) reflect a competitive fight with slight favoritism toward Chandler, which adds some safety to his profile for cash games. In tournaments, the key question is whether he prioritizes winning over entertaining; if he wrestles effectively, he could easily exceed value. At this price point and matchup dynamic, Chandler offers solid upside with a bit of risk baked into his approach.

Other Value Options

• Hailey Cowan ($7,600, Proj: 50.8, Own: 18.4%, Odds: -151)
• Dan Ige ($7,700, Proj: 48.0, Own: 17.5%, Odds: -162)

Bargain Tier (Under $7,500)

Top Play: Mitch Raposo (+250) ($7,300)

Mitch Raposo ($7,300) is an intriguing underdog option with a solid value projection of 6.26x and an optimal lineup percentage of 27.1%. While his betting odds at +250 reflect his underdog status, the matchup against Su Mudaerji offers potential paths to success. Mudaerji’s three-fight skid and questionable durability create opportunities for Raposo to capitalize if he can close the significant 7.5-inch reach gap. Raposo’s striking volume and combination punching were evident in his UFC debut, particularly in Round 3, though he’ll need to sustain that output for all three rounds to maximize scoring potential. At this salary, even a decision win could pay off in tournaments given his ability to rack up significant strikes.

Ownership-wise, Raposo sits at 22.2%, right around field average, which doesn’t scream leverage but also doesn’t make him overly chalky. The moderate ownership reflects both his affordability and the risk associated with his limited UFC track record, especially after a lackluster debut where he struggled with power and speed on short notice. However, with a full camp and a more favorable opponent in Mudaerji, Raposo has reasonable upside for GPPs—particularly if you’re looking for salary relief without sacrificing too much win equity or scoring potential.

Other Bargain Options

• Bryce Mitchell ($7,100, Proj: 41.4, Own: 14.5%, Odds: +350)
• Sedriques Dumas ($7,200, Proj: 43.0, Own: 16.3%, Odds: +210)

Good luck! Make sure to check the Lineup Optimizer for latest updates before lock. Visit DFS Hero for our full suite of DFS tools including the Lineup Optimizer, Contest Simulator, Fighter Projections, and Ownership Projections. Use code HEROPLAY15 to get 15% off your first month!