Alex Pereira looks to solidify his UFC legacy on Saturday, defending his light heavyweight title against Khalil Rountree Jr. in UFC 307’s main event. Both fighters have massive power in their striking, with 18 knockouts between them across 24 wins.

Pereira, a former middleweight champion, moved up to light heavyweight after losing the belt to Israel Adesanya. Since then, he has won four straight fights, three by knockout, against former champions, earning the title.

Rountree, ranked No. 8, enters the fight on a five-win streak, including four knockouts. He seized the chance to challenge Pereira after the UFC sought an available contender to face the champ in 2024.

In the co-main event, Raquel Pennington defends her women's bantamweight title against former champ Julianna Pena. Pennington claimed the vacant belt after six consecutive wins, while Pena aims to bounce back after losing to the now-retired Amanda Nunes.

Alex Pereira 70% Finish Line; 29% First Round Finish; 78% Win Probability

Cesar Almeida 64% Finish Line; 30% First Round Finish; 77% Win Probability

Ryan Spann 55% Finish Line; 29% First Round Finish; 68% Win Probability

Kayla Harrison 43% Finish Line; 18% First Round Finish; 88% Win Probability

Tim Means 29% Finish Line; 14% First Round Finish; 64% Win Probability

This is a tale of two heavy handed strikers ready to chin whoever stands across from them. Bottom line, somebody is getting knocked out here. The vegas odds are set on Friday night at a -1100 line for the fight to not going the distance. Pereira is a -455 favorite for good reason, with his crazy death touch and elite leg calf kicks. But it’s hard to make a great case for Khalil, other than that he’s a talented, high-level striker who has the capacity to catch Pereira with a kill shot or combination to close things out. We saw it with Pereira in the second Izzy fight, but that was after a big weight cut and seems more shocking after each subsequent fight I watch with the champ. I think an early stoppage for Poatan is the most likely scenario, as reflected in the odds. Khalil has never attempted a takedown in the UFC and has been knocked out by what I would consider much less talented fighters. 

Raquel Pennington (8.4k) vs. Julianna Pena (7.8k)

People tend to sleep on both of these fighters and downplay their skill sets. They are each about as tough as it comes. It’s very hard to finish Pennington, who has only been knocked out by Amanda Nunes in her debut in the 5th round. So it seems likely her opponent is going to need to win on the scorecard. With that being said, Raquel also doesn’t finish her fights - she has won by decision in 8-10 fights. She got knocked out in her debut, as I mentioned, and submitted Macy Chiasson in 2021. It should be noted that she dropped a 145.4 DK score in her last bout. She doesn’t score great in general with only three out of her ten fights scoring over 84 points (94.9 in 2020, 93.3 in 2021, and 145.4 in January of 2024). Pena actually scores pretty well in her wins, but she’s much more of a finisher, with stoppages in six out of her 10 fights - she has two KO/TKOs and four submissions. I’m leaning towards Raquel, but Pena is live. Both these fighters are older at 36-years-old for the champ and 35-years-old for the contender. 

Mario Bautista (8.5k) vs. Jose Aldo (7.7k)

I expect this to be a pivotal fight on this card. The money has been coming in heavy on Aldo. It’s not a great matchup for Bautista. Everyone struggles to take down Aldo so it seems like this will turn into a striking match. In his last fight, Aldo looked great in a win against Jonathan Martinez in his return to the UFC in Rio. It seemed like the lights were just too bright for Martinez on that night against the King of Rio. I think Aldo comes out looking good, but I like Bautista here. Bautisa can score well on DK with five of his ten fights scoring over 90 DK points. I’m just going to go with the younger, bigger, and I think hungrier fighter in Bautista. 

Roman Dolidze (7.9k) vs. Kevin Holland (8.3k)

For Roman to have any success here, he will need to get the fight to the ground. If he gets the takedowns, he will likely win. Kevin Holland has got so much better with his takedown defense and ground game in general. But I don’t think it’s enough to handle Dolidze. If it stays as a striking affair, Holland definitely has the advantage. It’s close and I’ll probably play both sides with a lean towards Roman. 

Kayla Harrison (9.8k) vs. Ketlen Vieira (6.4k)

I’m really interested to see this one. Kayla is an absolute killer, from what we have seen of her, but she only has one fight in the UFC. She looks like an all-world talent. In one of the press conferences, Kayla said she would beat Ketlen’s ass and follow it up by beating both Pennington girls in the same night. I know she was just talking shit and engaging with some hyperbole, but I believe her. If you think she pays off her massive tag, she does offer an implied win probability of 88%.

Joaquin Buckley (8.8k) vs. Stephen Thompson (7.4k)

Welterweight Joaquin is a problem. He has looked very good since moving down in weight classes. I think he is the more well-rounded fighter that is still in prime. Wonderboy Thompson is old in fighter years at 42 and it feels like the UFC is feeding him to Buckley after he pulled out of a fight against Michel Pereira after Pereira missed weight. To me, it seems like this might be the end of the road for Wonderboy as a UFC fighter. Maybe I’m one fight too early here, but I like Buckley to win and score well. Since moving down to welterweight, Joaquin has scored 101.3, 73.2, 95.1, and 114.7 in his four consecutive wins. Thompson’s last fight was 12/16/2023, where he put up 8.4 points in a 2nd round submission loss to Rakhmonov; prior to that, in 2022, Wonderboy put up 109.6 DK points in a win over Holland. It seems likely this will be a mostly striker affair, which does keep Thompson live as perhaps the better striker, if he still has it at his age. 

Iasmin Lucindo (8.6k) vs. Marina Rodriguez (7.6k)

Lucindo needs to get the fight to the ground to get a win here. If her cardio holds up, she might be able to do that. This is very close. Marina is definitely the best fighter Lucindo has faced. Overall, I kind of like Marina at dog money but I’ll probably have some exposure to both.

Austin Hubbard (7.6k) vs. Alexander Hernandez (8.6k)

This is another very close fight. Alexander Hernandez is the better fighter but he does not always make the best decisions. You can’t really trust him at all. Austin is pretty good all around and always seems to find ways to win with his busy style. I like Hubbard as an underdog. Hernandez has only scored above 80 DK points in two of his ten fights. 

Cesar Almeida (9.4k) vs. Ihor Potieria (6.8k)

 I think Cesar dominates this fight, as the odds suggest. He is the better striker in a striking affair. Ihor can definitely be a bit chiny. 

Ryan Spann (9.2k) vs. Ovince Saint Preux (7k)

This is a rescheduled fight from three weeks ago, when Saint Preux pulled out of the fight for undisclosed medical reasons. I think whoever wins will probably score well with a finish. Spann is the younger, bigger, and more dangerous fighter. He should win, but he is not very durable, so you just never know. Spann has scored over 90 DK points in three of his ten fights.

Tecia Pennington (8.7k) vs. Carla Esparza (7.5k)

Carla has announced that this is her last fight. She does not look in great shape for this fight at all. Teci is a busy striker that will stay in her face, but it seems unlikely she will get the finish. Pennington has scored over 90 DK points in three of her ten fights.

This is a battle between two super aging fighters. This seems like a much closer fight than the price or odds would suggest. I’m not going out of my way to get Means, but I want exposure to McGee due to his price.

Good luck, everybody! I look forward to talking about strategy and ways to get different on this slate in Discord. Let’s get it!

10/5 UFC Cheat Sheet: Slate Breakdown

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DaveVR

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