FREE 8/17 UFC Cheat Sheet: Slate Breakdown

UFC 305 is shaping up to be an electrifying event with its headline bout featuring the middleweight title clash between Dricus du Plessis and Israel Adesanya. This grudge match, born from their heated encounter at UFC 290, adds significant drama to the card. Adesanya's quest to reclaim his championship after losing to Sean Strickland and Du Plessis's aim to prove his legitimacy as the new champ provide a compelling narrative for the fight.

The atmosphere at Perth’s RAC Arena (Australia) will be charged, with fans keenly awaiting this high-stakes showdown. Besides the headliner, the rest of the card also promises action-packed fights. The mix of heavy favorites and potential underdog surprises makes for an intriguing DFS slate.

Using tools from DFSHero.com, combined with Vegas data and tape study, I will outline my thoughts on the slate to aid in building your own strategy to approach this slate.

Fights Expected to Finish Inside the Distance

• Tom Nolan (82% ITD )/Alex Reys (8% ITD) – 90% Fight ITD
• Jack Jenkins (69% ITD)/Herbert Burns (12% ITD) – 69% Fight ITD
• Jairzinho Rozenstruick (55% ITD)/Tai Tuivasa (26%) – 81% Fight ITD
• Carlos Prates (50% ITD)/Li Jiagliang (13% ITD) – 63% Fight ITD
• Junior Tafa (42% ITD)/Valter Walker (21% ITD) – 63% Fight ITD
• Song Kenan (42% ITD)/Ricky Glenn (20% ITD) – 62% Fight ITD

Other Notable ITD Lines

• Stewart Nicoll (31% ITD)
• Dricus Du Plessis (31% ITD)

Favorite Plays

• Dricus Du Plessis 7.9k
• Carlos Prates 9.2k
• Stewart Nicoll 9k
• Jairzinho Rozenstruik 8.9k
• Jack Jenkins 9.6k (Difficult to pay off tag.)
• Tom Nolan 9.8K (Probably needs a first-round finish to pay off his tag.)

Viable Value Plays/Live Dogs

• Dricus Du Plessis 7.9k*
• Valter Walker 8k*
• Richard Ramos 7.7k*
• Casey O’Neill 7.6k*
• Dan Hooker 6.9k
• Jesus Aguilar 7.2k
• Kai Kara-France 7.4k
• Tai Tuivasa 7.3K

Card Analysis

The main event with Izzy and Du Plessis will be intense. Izzy’s fights can be technical and sometimes less exciting, as he is a counter-striking point fighter. However, I believe Du Plessis will keep the fight interesting. Adesanya will likely look to stay on the outside, using his reach to stay out of range. However, Izzy has struggled with forward strikers who apply relentless pressure, which is exactly what Du Plessis brings to the fight. We saw how Izzy struggled with a similar approach against Sean Strickland. Some might argue that Izzy underestimated his opponent in that situation, contributing to the shocking result and losing his belt. If nothing else, Izzy is a resilient professional that you can never count out.

As the odds suggest, many in the MMA community believe Adesanya will be prepared for the approach I mentioned and will look more like the “contender Izzy” from before his championship run. It’s hard to argue with that perspective, but you have to remember that Adesanya is 35 years old now. He’s not a young, up-and-coming fighter; he has fought with a certain style for most of his UFC career, especially during his run as champ. For all these reasons, I’m leaning towards Du Plessis. However, if you are an Izzy believer, don’t let me change your mind. This will be a crazy fight, and I’m almost expecting to be surprised. At their price points, both fighters are definitely in play. Historically, Izzy does not score particularly well due to his counter-striker style, but you never know with a well-timed (or early) KO.

The card is also unique because we have some heavy favorites likely to get early stoppages, such as Tom Nolan and Jack Jenkins. For some reason, this event is being dubbed the “sibling card” as it features several UFC fighters with famous siblings. Nolan is facing Alex Reyes, the brother of Dominick Reyes. As will be the theme, these fighters are not as skilled as their more famous siblings. Alex has faced significant health issues, including a spinal infection that kept him out of competition for five or six years before he returned and got KO’d by Charlie Campbell. It’s hard to imagine a scenario where Reyes does not get knocked out again by Nolan, likely early in the fight. It will have to be early for Tom Nolan to achieve an optimal score. Similarly, Jack Jenkins is a massive favorite over Herbert Burns, the brother of Gilbert Burns. Herbert has been known to quit in fights and was notoriously carried out by his big brother after a fight. It’s not a good look. The only thing to keep in mind is that Herbert can grapple. If the fight somehow ends up on the ground, it might get interesting, but Herbert doesn’t seem to have the skills to take the fight to the ground on his own.

If you’re looking for GPP pivots, consider Stewart Nicoll, Jairzinho Rozenstruik, and Song Kenan. Nicoll has upside with his wrestling-heavy style. He has looked impressive in the tape I’ve reviewed, but he has not been tested much, from what I’ve seen. His opponent, Jesus Aguilar, is solid, packs big power, and is a strong grappler. There are a lot of unknowns for a UFC debut in Nicoll, but there is upside in that uncertainty. Rozenstruik is facing Tai Tuivasa, whose chin has been more suspect lately after four straight losses. Neither fighter is likely to attempt wrestling, making this a probable kickboxing match. Rozenstruik is live for a knockout based on this kind of matchup. Song Kenan isn’t great and has questionable fight IQ, but if he has one thing, it’s massive power in his hands. Song is facing Ricky Glenn, who has a questionable chin. I wouldn’t be surprised if Glenn gets knocked out early. That said, I wouldn’t gamble too much on Song, but it’s somewhat tempting here.

There are a lot of live dogs this week. I noted my favorites with an asterisk above, but it’s very difficult to narrow it down. I love Du Plessis, so he will most likely be my highest exposure for value. Valter Walker, who is Johnny Walker’s brother, will be facing another UFC sibling, Junior Tafa. Valter gassed in about 38 seconds in his last bout and looked out of shape. However, in his more recent pictures, he looks like he’s finally in shape and taking his career more seriously. Unlike his brother, Valter is a wrestler. If he can secure takedowns, he could have a lot of success against Tafa. Casey O’Neill looked great earlier in her career but hasn’t looked as good lately. However, this is women’s MMA, and it’s hard to do the matchup math sometimes. I don’t love her to win, but I feel like she could be live. At times, she has looked very good, while at other times, she has been an absolute embarrassment. Ramos is probably one of the better underdogs on the card. He’s pretty decent all around. Dan Hooker is another legit striker with power in his hands. He’s facing a guy in Gamrot who has been dropped in five of his last nine fights. Gamrot probably wrestles his way to victory, but there’s a chance he finally gets dropped and stays down.

Good luck everybody! I look forward to talking strategy and ways to get different on this slate in Discord.